Padres vs. Mets Odds & Betting Predictions - June 16, 2024

Padres at Mets

5:40 pm • WPIX

San Diego Padres

4-3

6 - 11

New York Mets

7-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
T.Megill			4.04	4-5
D.Cease			3.47	14-11

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Padres 4-3	-1.5	-1.5+124	o7-119	-148
Mets 7-6	u7.5	+1.5-149	u7-101	+124

Sunday 5:40 p.m.

June 16, 2024

Citi FieldFlushing, Queens

SD -1.5+135

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SD -130

Over 7-120

$50.00

SD -132

$1320.00

T.Megill u17.5 Outs-130

He’s only pitched past the fifth inning in 1 of his 5 starts. Throws a lot of pitches (3.92 pitches per PA), especially vs lefties where his walk rate almost doubles. Padres should have at least 5 lefties in the lineup today, and as a team, they chase at the 9th lowest rate.

NYM +118

0.3u

Small to +113

Under 7.5-108

0.54u

Bet to -116

D.Cease u7.5 Ks-110

Cease under in 8/14. Mets likely will start 4 lefties (Cease worse split - 26.4%). But Mets as a team also a tougher matchup - 19.1% K% the L14 vs righties, 22.5% vs righties at home this season, and only 26% vs power pitchers. Could get sweaty, but I have him at 7.

Featured Insight
The Padres have allowed just 4.1 runs per game on the road since last season -- fourth lowest in MLB (115 games). The Mets have scored just 4.1 runs per game at home since last season -- tied for fourth lowest in MLB (119 games).

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The Mets are just 16-9 (.640) when leading entering the 7th inning this season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .849.

The Padres are 9-5 (.643) after a road loss this season -- tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .494.

The Padres are just 0-34 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season -- tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .059.

The Mets are 5-28 (.152) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .059.

55% of fastball strikeouts for Francisco Lindor are located out of the zone this season -- seventh highest in MLB-- 94th Percentile. 47% of Dylan Cease fastball strikeouts are located out of the zone this season -- ninth highest among qualified SPs-- 88th Percentile.

Tylor Megill has a first-pitch strike rate of just 40% (19/48) this month (2 games) -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 62% -- 0 Percentile.

Tylor Megill has a first-pitch strike rate of just 54% (365/678) since last season -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: 62% -- 0 Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 37% (135/369) against Dylan Cease this season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% -- 100th Percentile.

Dylan Cease has walked 73 of 709 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season -- tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% -- seventh Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mets are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Mets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 42 of Mets' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30
Padres	82-78	35-45	47-33	43-57	37-19

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29
Padres	81-74-5	44-34-2	37-40-3	51-44-5	28-28

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35
Padres	93-69	45-35	47-33	58-42	31-25

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 15th	SD	W 5-1	-1.5 W	U 8.5	NYM -135
Jun 14th	SD	W 2-1	+1.5 W	U 7.5	NYM -112
Jun 13th	MIA	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 8.5	NYM -209
Jun 12th	MIA	W 10-4	-1.5 W	O 7.5	NYM -160
Jun 11th	MIA	L 2-4	-1.5 L	U 7.5	MIA -155

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

Mason McCoy
IF
McCoy is out with back
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RD.Cease, P	90	3.2	5	7
LY.Matsui, P	25	1.1	1	0
RS.Kolek, P	25	2	2	0
RJ.Estrada, P	27	0.1	1	4
RE.De Los Santos, P	2	0.2	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1L.Arraez, 1B	2-5	0	0
2F.Tatis, RF	0-5	0	0
3J.Profar, DH	1-4	2	1
4J.Cronenworth, 2B	1-5	1	0
5M.Machado, 3B	1-3	0	1
5T.Wade, 3B	0-0	0	0
5D.Solano, PH	0-1	1	0
5D.Solano, 3B	0-1	1	0
6J.Merrill, CF	1-3	0	1
7D.Peralta, LF	1-4	1	1
8H.Kim, SS	1-4	0	1
9L.Campusano, C	2-2	1	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Megill, P	92	5	5	2
RA.Houser, P	34	2	1	0
LJ.Diekman, P	18	0.1	0	2
RD.Smith, P	14	0.2	1	0
RS.Reid-Foley, P	15	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Lindor, SS	1-3	2	1	2
2B.Nimmo, LF	3-5	2	0	1
3J.Martinez, DH	2-3	1	0	1
4P.Alonso, 1B	2-5	1	1	5
5S.Marte, RF	0-4	0	0	0
5T.Taylor, RF	0-0	0	0	0
6M.Vientos, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
7L.Torrens, C	2-4	2	1	1
7F.Alvarez, C	0-0	0	0	0
8J.McNeil, 2B	1-4	1	0	0
9H.Bader, CF	2-4	2	0	1