Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
You can find expert projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Sunday, June 16.
MLB Predictions Sunday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (June 16)
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 9 -114o / -106u | +100 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 9 -114o / -106u | -118 |
Zach Eflin vs. Hurston Waldrep
I'm once again begging oddsmakers to explain to me why Hurston Waldrep is getting an ounce of their respect at the big-league level. The righty has a wealth of talent, but even his biggest believers would admit that he's incredibly unpolished and highly volatile on the hill.
Waldrep had an inauspicious start to the year in Double-A before piecing together three gems to end the month of May, at which point the Braves apparently made the decision to fast-track him to Atlanta. He made one decent start in Triple-A before debuting last week in Washington, where he was torched for seven runs on four hits and four walks.
Most concerning of all was the one punchout that Waldrep recorded in 3 2/3 innings. Strikeouts were what really helped him accelerate through the system a month ago, and if he was unable to find them against a team which sits almost exactly at the league average, I don't have much faith in him on Sunday. He walked four, too, continuing on with a problem we saw persist in the Minors.
Tampa may not represent the strongest offense in the world, but it's at least proved capable of taking walks and has been just good enough in the contact department to hit Waldrep where it hurts. I also have plenty of faith in the experienced Zach Eflin, who will encounter a Braves offense that has been middling for weeks now, even with a solid showing on Saturday.
Eflin's wearing a solid 3.45 xERA in 12 starts thanks in large part to a ridiculous 1.4% walk rate. Atlanta has been incredibly impatient, which should play right into the strike-thrower's hands and help him to a quick outing.
Bet: Rays ML +100 (to -112)
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| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +134 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -124 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +106 |
Dylan Cease vs. Tylor Megill
Has else anyone noticed that Dylan Cease's strikeout rate is beginning to bottom out a bit? No? It's just me? I suppose it takes a real hater to find such an obscure flaw with a pitcher who, for the most part, has been good — but that's the best way I can serve you.
At any rate, let's have a look. His strikeout rate is down around five points from May, and in two of his last five starts — including his most recent outing — he's posted one of his three lowest swing-and-miss rates of the season.
I mean, sure, congratulations for striking out eight Athletics over six innings in your last start. Doing that against the league-leader in strikeouts over the past month is not impressive. It's also not a positive note ahead of a meeting with a Mets team that has limited the strikeouts to a significant end over the last two weeks and own a beefy 123 wRC+.
I say all of this because we know, from watching Cease, that high strikeout numbers are critical due to his somewhat unappealing numbers on contact. They seem to be just as important to Tylor Megill as well, given he's allowing a whole lot of baserunners.
The Mets righty has walked nearly 10% of the batters he's faced over the last two seasons with some improved, yet still poor, expected results on contact this year. He's found his strikeout touch thanks to the Mets Pitching Factory, but with San Diego coming in even hotter than the Mets, with an insanely-low 15.7% strikeout rate, this shouldn't be his day.
Bet: Over 7.5 (+100 at BetMGM | Bet to -115)
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -138 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +160 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -190 |
Drew Thorpe vs. Jordan Montgomery
Now, I certainly don't want to be hypocritical here and praise one pitcher who was rushed to the bigs after trashing one earlier, but I don't believe the numbers would say that I am.
Drew Thorpe actually did look the part of a big leaguer this year, even down in Double-A. Getting his pro career started at the age of 22 last season, Thorpe made it to Double-A with some excellent results, and this season his 1.35 ERA was good enough to earn him a call to the bigs just a couple months into the season.
It would be foolish of me to read too far into his solid debut, given he had the good fortune of pitching to the Mariners in Seattle, but I will point out that we might look to this start in Arizona to mirror that one.
Thorpe pitched to a good deal of fly balls in Double-A this year at 38.7%, aiming to get outs on contact versus third strikes, and that plays very well in a park which kills fly balls. He benefited by pitching in Seattle, and he should benefit again in Arizona.
So, that creates a bit of a dilemma. Do we believe in this White Sox offense enough to back them on the moneyline, or do we trust Jordan Montgomery to be competent and look to the total?
It's an extremely tough call, but Montgomery has been an absolute atrocity this season with an awful .303 Expected Batting Average and .477 Expected Slugging, both of which are over 60 points higher than the league average. His strikeout rate, already mediocre, has come crashing down and now his walks are up. In all honesty, it may not be long before we talk about this guy like we talk about Patrick Corbin.
His sinker is getting hammered right now, a trend that began to develop last year, and that's actually a pitch which the White Sox have been essentially average against this year, according to the run value metrics.
I realize the White Sox are a hard team to trust at the dish, and the Diamondbacks are red-hot, but perhaps we see a reprise of Saturday's game given the pitching matchup.
