Marlins vs. Pirates Odds & Betting Predictions - September 11, 2024

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Starting with Bermudez, who will serve as an opener, his stats offer little confidence for holding down opposing hitters. Through just two appearances this season, he’s carrying a 5.79 ERA and an alarming 1.93 WHIP, which speaks to his inability to keep batters off the bases. He was designated for assignment earlier in the year, going unclaimed—a testament to his overall poor performance. His underlying metrics don't suggest improvement either, as Bermudez ranks in the bottom half of the league in critical categories like xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, and barrel rate. These are the metrics that speak directly to how hard he's being hit and his inability to miss bats. Backing him is a bullpen that doesn’t fare much better, ranking 22nd in team ERA, a clear sign of vulnerability when it comes to stopping runs late in the game. On the other side, Pittsburgh’s Bailey Falter isn’t in much better shape. While his 4.45 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over 24 starts may seem serviceable at first glance, his advanced analytics paint a far more troubling picture. His 5.10 xERA indicates that he's been somewhat fortunate in terms of runs allowed, while his bottom-third rankings in key categories such as xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate suggest continued regression is highly likely. He’s given up four or more earned runs in three of his last five starts, and his 6.85 ERA in that span demonstrates a clear trend of poor performance. Adding to the concern for Pittsburgh, their bullpen is one of the worst in the league, ranking in the bottom six in both ERA and xFIP, meaning there will be little relief if Falter struggles early. Both Bermudez and Falter are prone to allowing hard contact, and with each lineup having solid metrics against these pitchers, the Over is heavily favored. The Marlins’ lineup has hit .258 with a .540 xSLG in 14 plate appearances against Falter, further indicating their ability to generate offense in this game.

Flat to 8.5 (-105)