Guardians vs. Red Sox Odds & Betting Predictions - April 28, 2023

Guardians at Red Sox

11:10 pm • NESN

Cleveland Guardians

25-21

5 - 2

Boston Red Sox

23-25

pitcher		team	era	w-l
N.Pivetta			4.04	10-9
S.Bieber			3.80	6-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Guardians 25-21	-1.5+130	o9-105	-126
Red Sox 23-25	+1.5-160	u9-115	+106

Friday 11:10 p.m.

April 28, 2023

Fenway ParkBoston

Under 9-120

Over 8.5-117

Under 9-112

0.5u

Bet to -115 or 8.5 (+103)

BOS +120

0.5u

Bet to +115

MLB NRFI Model Picks For Friday
Billy Ward•
Apr 28, 2023 UTC

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Josh Naylor has a miss rate of only 15% on elevated fastballs since last season -- tied for 15th best in MLB-- 88th Percentile. Nick Pivetta has located his fastball up 56% of the time since last season -- tied for second highest among qualified SPs-- 97th Percentile.

Myles Straw is slugging just .220 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- second worst in MLB-- first Percentile. Nick Pivetta has thrown his curveball 28% of the time since last season -- 14th highest among starting pitchers with at least 74 total CB-- 89th Percentile.

Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 64% of the time (92/143) this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .082 (4-for-49) against Shane Bieber with two-strikes this season -- tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .169 -- 95th Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 44% of the time (383/863) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 50% (14/28) against Nick Pivetta on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 27% -- 99th Percentile.

The Red Sox are just 23-39 (.371) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season -- 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.

The Guardians are 2-8 (.200) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season -- tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .097.

The Guardians are 27-7 (.794) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season -- 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.

The Red Sox are 8-8 (.500) as underdogs this season -- tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .391.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Red Sox are 13-12 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Red Sox' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 10 of Red Sox' 23 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Red Sox	23-25	10-13	13-12	16-17	7-7
Guardians	20-26	11-11	9-15	9-10	11-15

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Red Sox	24-23-1	10-12-1	14-11	15-17-1	9-5
Guardians	21-22-3	8-13-1	13-9-2	11-8	10-13-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Red Sox	23-25	12-11	11-14	18-15	5-9
Guardians	25-21	14-8	11-13	13-6	12-14

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 26th	@BAL	L 2-6	+1.5 L	U 8.5	BAL +110
Apr 25th	@BAL	W 8-6	+1.5 W	O 9	BOS +133
Apr 24th	@BAL	L 4-5	-1.5 L	O 8.5	BAL -120
Apr 23rd	@MIL	W 12-5	+1.5 W	O 8	BOS +142
Apr 22nd	@MIL	L 4-5	+1.5 W	O 8.5	MIL +110

Shane Bieber
P
Bieber is out with elbow
Out
John Means
P
Means is out with elbow
Out
Lane Thomas
OF
Thomas is out with wrist
Out
David Fry
C
Fry is out with elbow
Out

Tanner Houck
P
Houck is out with arm
Out
Patrick Sandoval
P
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
P
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Romy Gonzalez
IF
Gonzalez is out with back
Out
Masataka Yoshida
OF
Yoshida is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Bieber, P	99	7	4	2
RT.Stephan, P	14	1	1	0
RE.Clase, P	13	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Kwan, LF	2-5	1	0	0
2A.Rosario, SS	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Ramirez, 3B	1-3	1	0	0
4J.Naylor, 1B	0-3	0	0	1
5J.Bell, DH	1-3	0	0	1
6A.Gimenez, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
7M. Zunino, C	1-4	1	1	1
8W.Brennan, RF	1-3	2	1	1
9M.Straw, CF	1-4	0	0	1

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RN.Pivetta, P		100	5	5	4
RK.Crawford, P		52	4	3	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1A.Verdugo, RF	0-4	0	1
2M.Yoshida, LF	1-4	0	0
3J.Turner, DH	1-4	0	0
3R.Refsnyder, PR	0-0	0	0
3R.Refsnyder, DH	0-0	0	0
4R.Devers, 3B	0-3	0	0
5T.Casas, 1B	0-3	1	0
6J.Duran, CF	3-4	0	0
7E.Hernandez, SS	2-4	1	1
8R.McGuire, C	0-4	0	0
9E.Valdez, 2B	1-4	0	0