Cubs vs. Pirates Odds & Betting Predictions - April 30, 2025

Boyd is piling up soft contact while running a high fly-ball rate. His 7.9% HR/FB is almost certainly going to regress. Boyd will likely get bit by the long ball when the weather warms up at Wrigley, but not in a matchup at PNC Park against this Pirates offense. Pittsburgh ranks 24th or worse in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against LHP this season. More importantly, they're 27th in ISO and 26th in SLG. PNC Park is one of the biggest home run suppressors in the league. Statcast's park factors grade it as the 2nd-hardest place to leave the yard over the past 3 seasons. For right-handed hitters, it's dead last.

Pirates can’t hit lefties – just 2.47 runs/9 vs LHP, batting .219. Boyd owns a 2.54 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, held PIT to 1 run over 6 IP last meeting. Even at home, PIT just 3.86 runs/gm. Offense fades vs lefties, tough ask vs a vet who limits early damage. Mlodzinski getting shelled – 6.95 ERA, 1.82 WHIP in 5 starts. Recent form worse: 8.10 ERA last 3, high contact, few clean innings. Cubs crush RHP on road – .275 AVG, 6.24 runs/9. Away OBP .346. Seiya, Tucker, Happ all raking in righty matchups. Boyd gives Cubs early edge. Pirates offense ranks bottom-tier vs LHP. Mlodzinski hasn’t gone 5 clean innings all season. Cubs avg 6.64 runs/gm on road, one of MLB’s most efficient lineups. All signs point to an early CHC lead at PNC.

FD

Bet to +140