Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Odds & Betting Predictions - August 28, 2024

.tsa windy unders Overall: 712-478-46,60% (ROI:15%) Season:24-27-1,47% (ROI:-8%) .tsa wind blowing in under streak Overall: 547-378-39,59% (ROI:14%) Season:23-18-2,56% (ROI:7%)

Free Play⚡️

Tracking for Pass the Prop now here. Breakdown on YouTube

Vlad has been on a tare, batting .373 in Aug, but I like this play even more because of his history with B. Bello who’s pitching for BOS. He’s 8/19 vs Bello with 3 (2B), 2 (HR), & only 3 K’s. Vlad is hitting .320 vs RHP & .298 away this season. These aren’t even his better splits, but they’re still very good knowing Bello is also allowing a .290 BA at home. BOS bullpen is ranked 27th, so I’m not worried about that even if Bello pitches decent. Vlad has hit Ov 1.5 TB in 6 of his L9 games.

CZ

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Chris Bassitt simply hasn't pitched well of late for the Blue Jays, and his advanced metrics are indicating that it's not just a blip. Over his last three starts, he's amassed an alarming 8.40 ERA while allowing 14 earned runs and 17 hits in just 15 innings of work, good for a 1.53 WHIP. This recent downturn is further emphasized by a hard-hit rate of 38.7%, meaning nearly 40% of the balls put in play against him have been struck with considerable force. Along with Bassitt's xBA sitting relatively high at .254, opposing hitters are not only making contact but making solid and impactful contact-one that is likely to find its way into the outfield for a base hit and/or present run-scoring opportunities. His struggles are further outlined by his .324 xwOBA, which combines quality of contact, strikeouts, and walks to provide an all-encompassing look at a pitcher's effectiveness. His xwOBA ranks in the 37th percentile, indicating he is below average at preventing opponents from reaching base and scoring. This is compounded by his 27th-percentile fastball velocity, which sits at an average of just 92.5 mph, and a chase rate in the 9th percentile-meaning he's not generating the swings and misses to dominate hitters. This low chase rate explained partly by a whiff rate in the 13th percentile-means hitters are consistently making contact against him and driving the ball with authority when they do. That risk is further captured with a 46th percentile barrel rate, which speaks to hitters squaring up his pitches more frequently than average and taking those hard-hit balls for extra-base hits or home runs. The Red Sox right-hander Brayan Bello has had a couple better starts of late, but he brings some different varieties of vulnerabilities that come in very much in line with the over bet. Bello's season ERA of 4.95 and WHIP of 1.33 point to a pitcher who allows a good number of baserunners, an assertion his advanced metrics confirm. For example, his hard-hit rate sits at an even worse 41.8% than Bassitt's, ranking in the bottom quarter of the league. His xBA of .262 and xwOBA of .334 rank in just the 22nd and 25th percentiles, respectively, further evidencing his vulnerability in allowing hits and runs. Adding to that, Bello's expected slugging percentage sits at .420. Usually an mitigating factor, Bello relies enough on generating ground balls. His 19 home runs allowed this season add to the risk, especially when facing a Toronto lineup that ranks 9th in ISO against right-handed pitching. That power complements their 10th-ranked 102 wRC+ against righties quite nicely, and the Blue Jays will no doubt be a good test for Bello. Offensively speaking, both teams are suited well to capitalize on these weaknesses in pitching. The Red Sox rank 4th in team batting average in MLB, coming in at .259, coupled with a 4th-best OPS in the league of .764. That would be consistent with the lineup that can score in bunches, while sustaining periods of scoring spurts at an incredible clip, as their 5th-ranked 4.89 runs per game would indicate. Further supporting that would be a 4th-place ranking in home runs with 167 on the season, proving their point of evidenced ability to change any game with one swing of the bat. Boston has had a .263 batting average and .327 OBP against right-handed starters, setting them up to take full advantage of the recent struggles from Bassitt. While they are not as prolific as the Red Sox, the Blue Jays nonetheless bring a great deal of offensive capability. Toronto's .173 ISO against right-handed pitchers was 9th, and that suggests extra-base hits and home runs, particularly against a pitcher like Bello, who has shown a tendency to give up hard contact. A lineup featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr., one of the single greatest threats in all of baseball, along with Bo Bichette, is more than capable of contributing to a high-scoring affair, particularly in a hitter-friendly park like Fenway. Recent trends are wholly heavy towards the over as well. The over on the total has hit in 40 of Toronto's last 58 overall and in 13 of their last 19 road games. For Boston, the over on the total has hit in 48 of their last 74 and 12 of their last 16 home games. None of these are coincidental trends but resultant effects of both teams consistently hitting well and poor pitching performances. Bullpen performance bolsters the case for the over even more. The Boston bullpen has often been highly inconsistent, carrying a 4.46 ERA over recent games that could easily see that number increase with additional scoring late in the game. The Toronto bullpen has been slightly more reliable, but still susceptible in key situations in the game when it's on the line in high-leverage situations.