Astros vs. Orioles Odds & Betting Predictions - August 8, 2023

Astros at Orioles

11:05 pm • TBS

Houston Astros

0-2

7 - 6

Baltimore Orioles

0-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
G.Rodriguez			4.35	7-4
F.Valdez			3.46	12-11

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Astros 0-2	-1.5+127	o8.5-110	-125
Orioles 0-2	+1.5-155	u8.5-110	+105

Tuesday 11:05 p.m.

August 08, 2023

Oriole Park at Camden YardsBaltimore

BAL +110 (F5)

0.28u

BAL +110

0.25u

F.Valdez u6.5 Ks-145

Besides 2 starts vs LAA, he’s been weaker on the road. Under in 5/8, 4.11 ERA. 15/19 lefties making full starts at Camden Yards have stayed under this line. Good hitting conditions, and BAL as a team is below avg K% vs lefties (21.5%). Orioles also an excellent curveball hitting team. Overall, BAL profiles as one of the tougher opponents for Framber, and coming off a no-hitter, i like BAL to get to him a bit.

HOU -130

BAL +114

Available at FanDuel. My model makes the Orioles the favorites here, which makes them alluring at +114. Grayson Rodriguez hasn't had amazing results since coming back up, but his peripherals have improved. He has a 4.04 SIERA across four starts and is pumping out a 56.1% ground-ball rate. That's while facing the Dodgers, Rays, and Blue Jays in that span. The strikeouts have also crept up a bit in this span, meaning Rodriguez is starting to flash some of his big potential. He is paired with Framber Valdez on the other side, which is never ideal, but the Orioles' active roster has a better wRC+ against lefties (108) than the Astros have against righties (102). I agree with the model on this one.

BAL +116

0.5u

Bet to +105

BAL +112 (F5)

0.56u

Bet to +111

Featured Insight
The Astros have scored first in 56% of their games this season -- tied for fourth-highest in MLB. The Orioles have allowed their opponents to score first in 55% of their games this season -- fifth-highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Orioles Right Handed Hitters have struck out 24% against LHP since last season -- tied for fourth-highest in MLB. AstrosRPs have a strikeout rate of 29% vs right-handed batters since last season -- highest in MLB.

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The Astros are 16-8 (.667) after a road loss this season -- tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .461.

Adam Frazier has an OPS of just .658 since last season -- sixth worst in MLB-- fifth Percentile. Framber Valdez has allowed an OPS of just .609 (1,370 PAs) since last season -- 12th best among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP-- 93rd Percentile.

Anthony Santander is slugging .487 on breaking pitches since last season -- 13th best in MLB-- 89th Percentile. Bryan Abreu has thrown a breaking pitch 57% of the time since last season -- 12th highest among qualified RPs-- 93rd Percentile.

Opponents had a chase percentage of just 15% (8/54) against Eduardo Rodriguez in late innings in 2022 -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% -- first Percentile.

Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 50% of the time (264/529) with two-strikes this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Orioles are 46-35 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Orioles' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Orioles' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Orioles	87-75	41-40	46-35	61-57	25-16
Astros	81-80	40-41	41-39	56-60	23-19

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Orioles	85-63-14	40-32-9	45-31-5	60-45-13	22-18-1
Astros	65-91-5	37-41-3	28-50-2	45-66-5	18-24

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Orioles	91-71	44-37	47-34	68-50	22-19
Astros	88-73	46-35	42-38	66-50	20-22

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 6th	NYM	W 2-0	-1.5 W	U 8.5	BAL -200
Aug 5th	NYM	W 7-3	-1.5 W	O 9.5	BAL -175
Aug 4th	NYM	W 10-3	-1.5 W	O 9.5	BAL -148
Aug 3rd	@TOR	W 6-1	+1.5 W	U 8	BAL +150
Aug 2nd	@TOR	L 1-4	+1.5 L	U 8.5	TOR +112

Lance McCullers
P
McCullers is out with arm
Out
Cristian Javier
P
Javier is out with elbow
Out
Luis Garcia
P
Garcia is out with elbow
Out

Jorge Mateo
IF
Mateo is out with elbow
Out
Grayson Rodriguez
P
Rodriguez is out with back
Out
Tyler Wells
P
Wells is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LF.Valdez, P	93	7	3	6
RR.Stanek, P	9	1	1	0
RR.Pressly, P	13	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Altuve, 2B	1-4	2	0	0
2A.Bregman, 3B	2-5	1	0	0
3Y.Alvarez, LF	1-4	1	0	0
4K.Tucker, RF	2-4	2	1	5
5Y.Diaz, DH	0-3	0	0	1
5Y.Diaz, C	0-3	0	0	1
6J.Abreu, 1B	0-5	0	0	0
7J.Pena, SS	3-4	0	0	1
8J.Meyers, CF	1-4	0	0	0
9M.Maldonado, C	0-3	0	0	0
9J.Singleton, PH	0-0	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RG.Rodriguez, P	93	6	4	2
RM.Baumann, P	14	1	1	1
RY.Cano, P	18	1	1	0
RF.Bautista, P	30	0.2	2	4
RJ. Krehbiel, P	1	0.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.Rutschman, DH	1-3	2	1	2
2R.Mountcastle, 1B	1-4	1	1	2
3A.Santander, RF	0-3	0	0	0
3R.McKenna, RF	0-0	0	0	0
4A.Hays, LF	0-4	0	0	0
5G.Henderson, SS	1-4	0	0	0
6J.Westburg, 2B	2-4	1	0	0
6J.Westburg, 3B	2-4	1	0	0
7R.Urias, 3B	1-3	1	0	0
7A.Frazier, 2B	0-1	0	0	0
8J.McCann, C	1-2	1	0	2
8R.O'Hearn, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9J.Mateo, CF	1-3	0	0	0