The Action Network staff has already made Seahawks vs Patriots final score predictions for Super Bowl 60, myself included.
- For more Super Bowl LX coverage check out Chris Raybon's Seahawks vs Patriots preview, which includes his expert NFL picks for tonight’s showdown.
I'm in the majority group in thinking the Seahawks will triumph in this Super Bowl rematch, but I'd like to explain how I got to my final score prediction for Seahawks-Patriots.
Seahawks vs Patriots Final Score Prediction, Analysis
Our recency-weighted, schedule-adjusted Expected Scores, which power our Luck Rankings, have this game at 20.51 for the Patriots and 25.62 for the Seahawks.
That means the most likely scores are either 20 or 21 for the Patriots and 24 or 27 for Seattle, with 26 a much lower option in this range.
Looking at the six combinations of those scores, 26-21 has the longest odds by far.
The easiest way to get to 26 points is by missing an extra point on an otherwise 27-point performance, or a 2-point conversion which could be the case if Seattle trails 21-20 in the fourth quarter and scores a TD. They'd likely go for two to try to push it to a 7-point lead.
But the other way is through 4 FGs and 2 TDs. Seahawks kicker Jason Myers has attempted 4+ FGs in five of 19 games this year, and has two games where he's attempted exactly 4 FG and 2 XP, so it's certainly possible.
The Patriots defense has improved vastly over the latter portion of the season and playoffs — they may have some bend-but-don't-break drives in them, so I think 26 is a realistic enough possibility that I'll give SEA 26, NE 21 as my final score pick.
Is this a good bet at 350-1 odds at FanDuel? Maybe.
In 458 games with a total between 43.5 and 47.5 (within 2 points of the current total, capturing key numbers of 44 and 47), and a spread between a field goal and a touchdown, this score has happened twice.
Since there are two ways to get this (SEA 26, NE 21 or NE 26, SEA 21), then 1 in 458 is a rough fair estimate should both teams be equally likely. But obviously as the favorite, Seattle is more likely.
That makes this roughly a breakeven bet at 350-1 at FanDuel, but I'm still going to make it just for fun, and because our recency-weighted, schedule-adjusted Expected Scores, when rounded, give us this final score.
Dr. Nick's Final Score Pick: 26-21 Seahawks
