Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech Odds
| Western Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-5.5 -115 | 58.5 -105o / -115u | -225 |
| Louisiana Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+5.5 -105 | 58.5 -105o / -115u | +180 |
Midweek Conference USA action continues with a game between two teams sitting undefeated in the standings.
Head coach Tyson Helton and Western Kentucky hold a victory over Middle Tennessee, as the Hilltoppers have so far lived up to the lofty expectations oddsmakers had for them to win Conference USA.
While a dip in the offensive numbers is apparent this season, this is still one of the most reliable teams in the country in terms of touchdowns and scoring opportunities.
To stay at the top of the conference standings, Western Kentucky must fend off a team dealing with key injuries in Louisiana Tech.
Head coach Sonny Cumbie has already had a successful season compared to last year after LA Tech finished with just three wins in Cumbie’s first year as head coach in 2022. This season, the Bulldogs have already achieved three wins, including conference victories over Florida International and UTEP.
After a fruitful transfer portal window this past spring, Cumbie has dealt with an injury at the quarterback position, allowing Jack Turner to slide in for Hank Bachmeier.
An upset victory in Joe Aillet Stadium would completely shake up Conference USA for a Louisiana Tech team that entered the season at +800 to win the league.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
This version of the Western Kentucky offense is not as smooth as previous versions. The Hilltoppers have fallen in Passing Success Rate and Explosiveness while posting the 99th-best rank in Quality Drives.
Quarterback Austin Reed has produced sound numbers under center, including an 11-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio while maintaining a turnover-worthy play rate similar to last season.
While drops have remained steady at the receiver position, two key areas can be blamed. Reed has been sacked just twice this season, but with 63 pressures through five games, WKU is on pace to possibly double last year's pressure rate. That's bad news for the Tops considering Reed takes a 15% drop in adjusted completion percentage when rushed.
Another issue is the low average depth of target, moving from 8.6 to 7.5 yards.
To this point, Western Kentucky has completed only two passes beyond 40 yards, a low deviation from last year's total of 19.
The defense continues to be a struggle for Helton and coordinator Tyson Summers. The Hilltoppers haven't tackled or stopped the rush well, ranking second-to-last in Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
The numbers improve by a small margin against the pass, moving to 82nd in terms of explosives allowed.
Since the pandemic, Western Kentucky's defense has only had to limit opposing offenses a little bit because its offense can put up plenty of points, but the Hilltoppers are struggling to do that in 2023.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
The Bulldogs were in the market for a quarterback in the offseason, and they pulled Bachmeier from Boise State to fill the void.
The results were as expected, as Bachmeier posted five touchdowns through the first four games before suffering an injury. Bachmeier has been absent the previous two games — a loss to Nebraska and a two-touchdown win over UTEP — while dealing with a shoulder injury.
If the fifth-year senior is unable to go in this one, Turner will get another start in Conference USA action.
Turner passes the test in terms of touchdown-to-interceptions, but the second-year quarterback has committed four turnover-worthy throws in 109 attempts.
The Louisiana Tech offense is balanced, as it has less success running the ball in standard downs. Both Tyre Shelton and Keith Willis Jr. average more than 4.1 yards after contact, combining for seven explosive runs on the season.
Wide receiver Smoke Harris continues to be a threat from the slot, producing three touchdowns on the year. Both Harris and Cyrus Allen average more than 2.1 yards per route run, making Louisiana Tech more explosive than methodical on the offensive side of the ball.
Defensive coordinator Scott Power has implemented a 4-2-5 scheme that sends a heavy amount of blitzes. Edge rusher J’Dan Burnett has benefitted the most, generating 13 pressures and 11 quarterback hurries on the season.
The strength of the defense comes against the pass, as it's generated top-15 ranks in Passing Success Rate and coverage. Cornerbacks Willie Roberts and Michael Richard have provided 13 pass breakups, which have accounted for half of the team's total swats.
Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech match up statistically:
Western Kentucky Offense vs. Louisiana Tech Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 49 | 97 | |
| Line Yards | 79 | 93 | |
| Pass Success | 70 | 6 | |
| Havoc | 56 | 41 | |
| Finishing Drives | 2 | 87 | |
| Quality Drives | 99 | 74 | |
Louisiana Tech Offense vs. Western Kentucky Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 88 | 125 | |
| Line Yards | 109 | 132 | |
| Pass Success | 103 | 72 | |
| Havoc | 108 | 101 | |
| Finishing Drives | 81 | 84 |  |
| Quality Drives | 82 | 67 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 108 | 34 |
| PFF Coverage | 48 | 11 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 23 | 77 |
| Middle 8 | 124 | 31 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.5 (43) | 27.6 (80) |
| Rush Rate | 35.8% (130) | 50.9% (81) |
Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech
Betting Pick & Prediction
The persistent troubles in Western Kentucky's passing game will be music to the ears of Louisiana Tech.
The Bulldogs have been a great coverage unit, as the aforementioned Roberts leads the nation with 10 forced incompletions. Richard has lined up at the other cornerback position and ranks sixth nationally in forced incompletions with seven on the season.
Reed could certainly struggle against a secondary that's caused plenty of interference through one month of play.
Whether Bachmeier or Turner starts at quarterback, there's reason to believe the ground game will gain plenty of yards in large quantities.
Western Kentucky ranks 125th defensively in limiting ground explosives. Only four teams in FBS have allowed more 20-yard gains on the ground than the Hilltoppers, a positive sign for Shelton and Willis.
The Action Network projection calls for Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech to be a pick'em with a total of 51.
The Hilltoppers will have issues getting the ball downfield against a stout Group of Five secondary. Louisiana Tech, meanwhile, will have moderate success creating explosives on the ground, leading bettors to invest in the Bulldogs and the under.
If Western Kentucky continues to struggle offensively in getting the ball downfield, Hilltoppers futures could be in jeopardy.
