Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky Odds
| Jacksonville State Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -105 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +260 |
| Western Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -115 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
Jacksonville State will host Western Kentucky in another midweek Conference USA clash Tuesday night.
These two teams reside toward the top of the league standings, as both will look to finish the regular season with the best record in the conference. It could have been a key matchup in terms of postseason prognostications, but Jacksonville State isn't eligible for postseason play due to NCAA rules for programs transitioning from FCS to FBS.
Injuries will play a large factor for the Gamecocks and hamper their chances to win this week. This has caused the line to move from WKU -4.5 to -7 so far, but have we hit a possible buy point for the Gamecocks?
Let’s dive into the Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State odds and make a pick and prediction in this NCAAF betting preview for Tuesday, Oct. 17.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Jacksonville State has shown to be quite the opposite of Western Kentucky in its first season at the FBS level, making this a very interesting matchup.
Injuries may play a factor for the Gamecocks this week, though. Last week’s loss to Liberty saw three injuries to this offense that may linger into Tuesday night.
Quarterbacks Zion Webb and Logan Smothers suffered injuries in Week 7, as did running back Malik Jackson. The statuses of both quarterbacks are still unknown, but head coach Rich Rodriguez described Jackson as “doubtful” to play this week.
That hurts because this offense has skewed heavily toward the run, ranking eighth in rush rate nationally. On this volume, the Gamecocks have the 49th-best Success Rate but rank only 89th in Rushing PPA with a mark of 101st in explosiveness.
With the quarterback carousel the Gamecocks have faced, they've struggled to move the ball through the air, sitting just 121st in Passing Success Rate and 107th in Passing PPA this season.
Ashton Frye struggled in relief last week, going 5-for-11 passing with 51 yards and a -0.34 EPA per Dropback. With this many injuries to an already struggling offense, I would be skeptical of what they will be able to do on this side of the ball on Tuesday.
Defensively, this unit has been stout overall — but not against big plays. Jax State ranks ninth in Success Rate Allowed and 40th in Finishing Drives, but it comes in at 110th in explosiveness allowed.
Still, this has been one of the best run defenses in the country, ranking third in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and fifth in Rushing PPA Allowed.
Against the pass — which is what Western Kentucky will utilize the most — Jacksonville State ranks 39th in Success Rate but 91st in PPA. That's because the Gamecocks are 120th in passing explosiveness allowed.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
The Hilltoppers have been known for their effective passing offenses, especially in the Bailey Zappe and Austin Reed eras. However, it doesn't seem like this offense is firing on all cylinders to this point in the year.
Coming off a bye, Western Kentucky will look to get this corrected against a formidable opponent.
WKU ranks 85th in Offensive Success Rate this year, but it sits second in Finishing Drives and 35th in explosiveness. This comes primarily from the passing game, where the Tops come in at 77th in Success Rate and 61st in PPA while passing at the fifth-highest rate in the FBS.
Reed heads up this aerial attack after throwing for 4,744 yards and 40 touchdowns a year ago. This season, he's racked up 1,665 yards and 14 touchdowns while averaging a modest 0.05 EPA per Dropback.
Malachi Corley has been the primary weapon in this offense, going for 538 yards and five touchdowns on the year, including a 207-yard, three-touchdown performance against Louisiana Tech in the Hilltoppers’ last game.
Defense has been a struggle for this team, but it's actually done a decent job of defending the pass. While Western Kentucky ranks 94th in Defensive Success Rate and 89th in Defensive Finishing Drives as a whole, its passing defense comes in at 48th in Success Rate and 66th in PPA.
However, opposing rushing attacks have caused issues for WKU. The Tops rank 122nd in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 120th in Rushing PPA Allowed. Jacksonville State is a heavy rushing team, so this may pose a problem for the Hilltopper defense.
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Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State match up statistically:
Western Kentucky Offense vs Jacksonville State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 91 | 3 | |
| Line Yards | 92 | 11 | |
| Pass Success | 78 | 91 | |
| Havoc | 42 | 30 | |
| Finishing Drives | 3 | 40 | |
| Quality Drives | 103 | 17 | |
Jacksonville State Offense vs Western Kentucky Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 48 | 122 | |
| Line Yards | 109 | 129 | |
| Pass Success | 121 | 64 | |
| Havoc | 48 | 104 | |
| Finishing Drives | 94 | 88 | |
| Quality Drives | 115 | 59 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 131 | 48 |
| PFF Coverage | 42 | 46 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 32 | 89 |
| Middle 8 | 111 | 63 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.5 (44) | 21.0 (1) |
| Rush Rate | 37.2% (129) | 63.7% (8) |
Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky
Betting Pick, Prediction
While the unknown around the Jacksonville State quarterback situation has caused this line to move in the favor of the Hilltoppers, I like taking the home underdogs here.
The Gamecocks defense is highly capable of slowing down WKU and keeping this game close.
Offensively, Jacksonville State's rushing game will be able to take advantage of this poor WKU rushing defense to help it move the ball down the field.
Even with the injuries, I like taking the Gamecocks to cover this full-touchdown spread at home as they look to avoid their second home loss in the last two weeks.
