Week 9 College Football Moneyline Underdog Picks: Time to Buy Purdue, Southern Miss?
James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Purdue’s Hudson Card.
For the sixth straight season on our college football betting podcast, Big Bets on Campus, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
Last week, Minnesota got to the window for me, but Colorado State went down in heartbreaking fashion on a last-second field goal, ruining a great value pick by Collin.
- 2018-22: 60-98, +8.3 units
- 2023: 7-9, +4.05 units
- Overall: 67-105, +13.35 units
This week, Collin and I are rolling with a pair of conference road dogs that both kick off in the mid-afternoon slate.
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pups pays over 15-1 odds.
Stuckey: Purdue +120
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
This is my favorite spot of the weekend.
On the surface, one might be confused as to why a 4-3 Nebraska team is laying such a short price at home against 2-5 Purdue. Well, I think the Boilermakers — who have been a bit unlucky in a number of areas that have led to some misleading results against one of the 10 most difficult schedules in the country to date — should be small favorites.
Meanwhile, I have Nebraska's strength of schedule ranked right around the national average.
Not only am I buying low on Purdue after a bye week, which has added benefit in the first year of a new staff, but the injury situation for Nebraska's offense has turned dire.
After already losing a pair of receivers and running backs to season-ending injuries earlier in the season, the Cornhuskers saw their three top offensive linemen — who had combined for 78 career starts — and leading receiver Billy Kemp IV join the wounded list in last week's victory over Northwestern.
As a result, head coach Matt Rhule will need to rely on a number of inexperienced freshmen and sophomores to fill in. There will likely be major growing pains.
From a matchup perspective, Nebraska has one of the nation's least efficient passing attacks, which Purdue's slow-footed secondary will welcome with open arms. The Boilermakers can simply load the box against a severely shorthanded skill position group and offensive line.
Additionally, the Cornhuskers' stingy defense has fared much better against the run, but that's not as relevant this week against Purdue's pass-heavy Air Raid attack, which is led by Texas transfer quarterback Hudson Card and new offensive coordinator Graham Harrell.
Boiler Up!
Wilson: Southern Miss +650
| Southern Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17 -112 | 55 -112o / -108u | +650 |
| App State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17 -108 | 55 -112o / -108u | -1000 |
While Stuckey spends his weekly handicapping looking through various trash receptacles for winners, I'm going straight to the city dump for value.
Southern Miss was deemed a corpse a number of weeks ago and failed to record an FBS win through six games. The Week 8 game at South Alabama was a lifeless effort as the Jaguars crushed the Golden Eagles, 55-3.
Southern Miss doesn't have many redeeming qualities and is listed as a 17-point underdog to Appalachian State.
The question for college football investors is if and when there's a buying point on teams with no hope for a postseason invite.
With a projection of Appalachian State winning this game by just nine points, Week 9 is as good as any for Southern Miss to try and keep head coach Will Hall in his position.
This is also a fade of a bad Appalachian State team that has lost three of its past four games.
App State has also allowed a high rate of explosives on the ground thanks in large part to a ranking of 119th in broken tackles allowed, a key stat for Southern Miss running back Frank Gore Jr. Not only has Gore created 27 missed tackles, but Southern Miss also ranks 23rd nationally in that category.
This is a showcase game for Hall to snag his first FBS victory and get off the hot seat (for now).
Plus, when looking for a potential big moneyline underdog, you want a lot of variance, which you may get in this spot after Hall said he is re-evaluating everything during the bye.
Therefore, we may see a completely new look (maybe even going back to some wildcat) from the Golden Eagles.
More From the "Big Bets on Campus" Podcast
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
