We're starting to get into the heart of the college football schedule, which means we have more data on teams. That's a great benefit, especially in the totals market.
Here are the pace numbers for each team through Week 6:
If you're new to this piece, we'll take an in-depth look at the totals market using yards per play, Success Rate, Finishing Drives, plays per minute and more.
Using those metrics — along with a look at the weather and key injuries — the goal is to hopefully help bettors beat the market before Friday and Saturday morning.
Let's kick things off with three over/unders to bet in Week 7.
Bowling Green vs. Buffalo
| Bowling Green Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Buffalo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
I think the total is too low considering how bad these two defenses are.
Buffalo put up its best offensive performance of the season last weekend at home against Central Michigan, gaining over 350 yards on 5.3 yards per play.
The Bulls are throwing the ball close to 54% of the time, but a lot of that comes from short passes. In fact, nearly 70% of quarterback Cole Snyder's pass attempts come within 10 yards.
Snyder hasn't been terrible with that strategy. He has a 72.3 PFF passing grade with nine big-time throws already, and he's been especially good when the Bulls utilize play action.
Image via PFF.
Although Buffalo sits outside the top 100 in Success Rate and EPA/Play, it's averaging 4.15 points per scoring opportunity, which ranks 57th in the nation.
Bowling Green's defense has been a mess this season. The Falcons are allowing 6.1 yards per play to FBS opponents and rank 110th in Success Rate Allowed and 89th in EPA/Play Allowed.
They've been really bad against the pass, ranking outside the top 100 in both Passing and Rushing Success Rate Allowed, so Snyder should have another impressive day through the air.
Bowling Green got shut out in its last game against Miami (OH), but now it's about to face a much worse defense.
One of the biggest things about the Falcons offense is that they need explosive plays to be successful. While it sits outside the top 100 in Success Rate, Bowling Green actually ranks inside the top 35 in both passing and rushing explosiveness. Well, Buffalo's defense gives up a ton of big plays both on the ground and through the air, ranking outside the top 100 in passing and rushing explosiveness allowed.
The Bulls are also 96th in Finishing Drives Allowed, so it's going to take some really bad offensive play for these two defenses to stop anything.
I have 56.4 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 47.5 points.
Kansas State vs. Texas Tech
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -108 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +104 |
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -112 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
The pace of this game should be very fast given how both of these offenses want to play.
Kansas State's ground-and-pound rushing attack has been very effective this season, averaging 5.2 yards per carry while ranking 17th in EPA/Play.
More important, though, is the fact that the Wildcats are playing much faster this season. In 2022, they ran a play about every 27 seconds, but this season, they've lowered that to nearly 24 seconds per play, which is a top-40 pace in the country.
It's worked for the offense, as running back DJ Giddens and quarterback Will Howard are both averaging over six yards per carry and have combined for 23 runs of at least 10 yards.
Kansas State's DJ Giddens Career Night vs. UCF – 293 All Purpose Yards & 4 TDs. EMAW: pic.twitter.com/ZcjGBfQAUg
— Desert Dweller Sports Network (@DesertDwellerSN) September 28, 2023
Texas Tech has been above average at stopping the run, but it hasn't done a great job controlling the line of scrimmage. The Red Raiders enter this game with marks of 75th in Stuff Rate and 44th in Defensive Line Yards.
Kansas State is also one of the most efficient scoring teams when it gets into the opponent's territory, averaging 5.15 points per scoring opportunity — the seventh-best mark in the nation.
Texas Tech is currently working with a backup quarterback after Tyler Shough went down with an injury against West Virginia in Week 4. Behren Morton essentially got thrown into the fire against the Mountaineers and had a horrible game.
However, his last two starts against Houston and Baylor have been pretty solid. He averaged 7.5 yards per attempt in those two starts and put up a PFF passing grade of 75.7.
With that said, the pressure is not entirely on his shoulders in this offense because the Red Raiders have run the ball 62.2% of the time with Morton as the starter and have been very effective in doing so.
Running back Tahj Brooks has been a key beneficiary. He's averaging 6.0 yards per carry as the Red Raiders rank 15th in EPA/Rush and 12th in offensive line yards.
While Kansas State boasts one of the best rush defenses in the country — it ranks first in Defensive Line Yards and third in Rushing Success Rate Allowed — both UCF and Oklahoma State ran for over four yards per carry in their last two games against the Wildcats.
I have 66.1 points projected for this game so I like the value on over 56.5 points.
Marshall vs. Georgia State
| Marshall Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 57 -110o / -110u | -105 |
| Georgia State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 57 -110o / -110u | -115 |
The total here is a little inflated, in my opinion.
Marshall put up 41 points against NC State, but the Thundering Herd have been subpar on the season. They rank 81st in Success Rate, 83rd in EPA/Play and 99th in Finishing Drives.
There are a couple of problems with Marshall's offense.
First, it's not running the ball effectively. While the Herd are eighth in the country in explosive rushing, they're averaging only 3.8 yards per carry and rank 125th in Rushing Success Rate. Georgia State has a top-25 defense in terms of Rushing Success Rate Allowed and has done a good job of controlling the line of scrimmage, ranking 14th in Defensive Line Yards and fourth in Stuff Rate.
Secondly, starting quarterback Cam Fancher really hasn't been that great at throwing the ball. He's averaging just 6.9 yards per attempt and owns a PFF passing grade of 69.2 with six big-time throws and eight turnover-worthy plays. Georgia State has struggled against the pass this season, so the pressure will be on Fancher to beat it with his arm.
Georgia State's rushing attack is pretty much a carbon copy of Marshall's. The Panthers rank second nationally in explosive rushing but 113th in Rushing Success Rate. This unit is a good lesson as to why Success Rate is an important indicator of how good an offense is because a team can't keep relying on explosive plays to keep its offense going.
The Panthers run the ball on 57% of their offensive plays, but Marshall's defense sits 26th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 34th in Defensive Line Yards and 13th in Stuff Rate.
Marshall also has one of the best secondaries in the country. The Thundering Herd are allowing only 5.3 yards per attempt and rank second in the nation in EPA/Pass Allowed.
Georgia State quarterback Darren Grainger has put up some incredible numbers with his 8.9 yards per attempt and PFF passing grade of 88.3, but this will by far be the best secondary he's seen this season.
I only have 51.1 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 57.5 points.
For those in Kentucky looking to bet on the Marshall/Georgia State team should check out our Kentucky Sports Betting page for all of the promos available in the Bluegrass State!
