We came close to a sweep last week, with Boston College opting to kneel at the UConn three-yard line to end the game instead of punching in one more score. Maybe that was a karmic penalty for fading an honorary Group of Five of team in this column instead of embracing it.
This week, I return to my roots by fading Trent Dilfer, picking a rivalry game with a funky trophy and banking on a high-scoring small-school affair.
FAU vs. UAB
The Trent Dilfer experience in the Magic City isn’t going well.
The former journeyman quarterback turned self-proclaimed quarterback guru told the media this spring that God called him to coach UAB. Apparently, the man upstairs didn’t tell him to coach up his defense.
The Blazers are 132nd out of 133 teams in terms of Defensive Success Rate. There isn’t a team in the country that's worse against the run than Dilfer’s group of fire-breathers.
This is great news for FAU’s Larry McCammon III. In the past year-and-a-half, the senior running back has six 100-plus yard rushing performances, and it’s likely we see FAU offensive coordinator Charlie Frye feed him 20-plus carries in this game.
McCammon is averaging over 21 touches per game in AAC play, which has translated to 96 all-purpose yards per game and four scores.
While it’s likely McCammon is the focal point on Saturday, Daniel Richardson’s play will determine if this is a blowout or see-saw battle. The Central Michigan transfer is a boom-or-bust player. In his last three starts, he’s posted QBRs of 94.3, 10.4 and 79.6.
When he’s dialed in, he’s capable of distributing the ball and keeping the Owls ahead of the chains. When he’s under duress, he creates negative plays by taking too many sacks, as he did against UTSA (5), and being foolish with the football.
Once again UAB’s toothless defense comes into play here. Dilfer’s defense ranks 93rd in Havoc generated and 118th in Sack Rate. This means Richardson won’t be under fire on Saturday.
Toss in injuries to the UAB offensive line and a quarterback coming out of the concussion protocol in Jacob Zeno, and I think it’s advantageous to side with the team in the thick of the AAC title hunt instead of the 2-6 squad teetering on the verge of a complete collapse.
Play: FAU -1 (Play to -3.5)
Boise State vs. Fresno State
This play is predicated on three things: The return of Mikey Keene at quarterback for Fresno, the potential absence of Boise’s Ashton Jeanty and the strength of the Fresno defense.
The Bulldogs were simply treading water with Keene sidelined. He didn’t miss a beat in his return last week, tossing four touchdowns against a vastly improved UNLV team.
The drop-off from Keene to Logan Fife can’t be overstated, which is why I’m bullish on Fresno with Keene as its QB1.
Then there’s the Jeanty factor. For those not in the know, Jeanty suffered a lower-body injury last week and was seen in street clothes on the sideline in the second half.
He is, without a doubt, the best Group of Five running back — if not the best G5 player outright.
Prior to his injury, Jeanty was the national leader in all-purpose yards per game and the top back in terms of weighted EPA. And just for good measure, he has the highest yards per target out of any running back in the country.
What this means is that he’s invaluable to the Boise offense.
Without him, it's a decent offense that will need to rely more heavily on Taylen Green at quarterback. Green has his moments in the running game, but he’s completed more than 50% of his passes just once in the past four games.
Jeanty remains questionable for this game, according to local reports.
If he can’t go, the Fresno defense should swarm this Boise team. The Bulldogs rank 29th in terms of Defensive Success Rate and 17th in Points per Opportunity Allowed, and they're the second-best run defense in the MWC behind Air Force.
Their secondary is a bit of a weakness, but Boise doesn’t have the consistency through the air to take advantage of them.
The Broncos have utilized both Green and Maddux Madsen in recent weeks, but they haven’t faced a road test against a stout defense like this.
I like Fresno to win the Milk Can Trophy here and cover this spread.
Play: Fresno State -3 (Play to -5)
Georgia Southern vs. Texas State
We have all the ingredients for a Sun Belt shootout on Saturday afternoon.
Both the Eagles and Bobcats have capable passers.
Georgia Southern's Davis Brin has attempted 45 or more passes in five of his last seven starts. Texas State’s T.J. Finley has averaged 37 attempts per game in SBC play.
And both of these teams love to play fast. Georgia Southern runs 81 plays per game (second), and TSU isn’t far behind at 75.6 (16th).
Then there are the defenses involved here.
Georgia Southern goes all out in pursuit of negative plays. It succeeds in that regard, as it ranks fourth in Havoc, but it comes at a big cost. It's often out of position and gives up chunk plays on the ground (119th in rushing explosives allowed), and allows quarterbacks to pick apart its exposed secondary (83rd in Pass Defense Success Rate).
Texas State isn’t nearly as disruptive, and it's far leakier on the backend. The Bobcats give up explosive plays left and right (127th) and even made the Southern Miss offense look explosive in a 50-36 win five weeks ago.
Both of these offenses are capable of scoring 50 in this game, and they're also capable of turning the ball over three or four times. That can be a double-edged sword for the total.
If they turn the ball over on their side of the field, they’re setting the table for easy scores going the other way. If they turn the ball over in their opponent's red zone, that can be an over killer.
Here’s hoping that the turnovers are scoop-and-scores and pick-sixes — not touchbacks.
Play: Over 70.5 (Play to 73.5)
Calabrese's Week 10 College Football G5 Parlay
- FAU -1
- Fresno State -3
- Georgia Southern vs. Texas State Over 70.5
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