USF vs UAB Odds
| USF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 68.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| UAB Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 68.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
It was great to see Trent Dilfer use his galaxy brain on the sidelines last weekend. The UAB Blazers head coach elected to kick a FG to cut an eight-point deficit into a five-point deficit with under five minutes to play inside the Tulane 20-yard line.
For all the math scholars out there, I'm sure you figured out that the Blazers needed a touchdown and a two-point conversion to tie the game.
All hail the Dilfer Doofus.
Let's see if Dilfer's team can finally get back into the win column when the South Florida Bulls roll into Birmingham Saturday afternoon.
The Bulls are coming off an impressive offensive performance against Navy, as QB Byrum Brown threw for three TD passes and 338 yards.
Both of these offenses are speed racers, and their defenses may as well act as traffic cones.
Let's break down both of these teams and uncover some betting value in USF vs. UAB.
South Florida Bulls
I love what the Bulls bring to the table on the offensive side of the ball. They've really started to click offensively since the Alabama game, averaging 43 points per game in their last two victories.
You would think having a QB injury at the beginning of the year would set back an offense, but Brown has shown he's more than capable of running this unit. Their offensive metrics are a bit misleading due to their strength of schedule, but even against Alabama, they showed the ability to give some push in the trenches.
The Bulls run one of the fastest offenses in the nation, as they rank fifth in plays per second (20 seconds). This will be a huge advantage against a Blazers team that can't get out of their own way on the defensive side of the ball.
Simply put, the Blazers' defense is absolutely dreadful. I see no reason as to why the Bulls can't continue their explosiveness on offense, and I expect Brown to have a huge day through the air.
Digging into this Bulls defense, I was a bit surprised to see how encouraging their metrics were. This unit finds itself inside the top 40 in Havoc and Line Yards.
This tells me that this defensive front will be able to push around the UAB offensive line a bit, which could set up some turnovers in the process. If the Blazers find themselves being careless with the ball, this will lead to some short fields for this Bulls offense.
UAB Blazers
Trent Dilfer is lucky that Tulane decided to go for a bomb pass on fourth and nine with under 50 seconds to play, as that would have been an infuriating way to lose an over. Remember, Dilfer won a Super Bowl and worked for ESPN, so that qualifies him to be an FBS-level HC.
The Blazers' special teams unit was all out of sorts Saturday afternoon, which resulted in a few costly penalties. Dilfer looked like a toddler at Toys-R-Us when the parents refuse to buy them an extra Power Ranger.
Anyway, I'll happily take another over cash on the Blazers, who despite turning the ball over on the goal line, still had their way with the Tulane defense. QB Jacob Zeno had the costly fumble, but still completed 77% of his passes without an interception.
The Blazers' offense will have to limit its turnovers against a Bulls defense that can create some Havoc, but I believe UAB's offense should continue to have extreme success.
Just like the Bulls, the Blazers are quick in between plays, ranking 13th in seconds per play.
The Bulls have shown they're capable of stopping the run, but that should be no issue for the Blazers, as they're in the bottom 30 in Rush Rate. Zeno should shred this weak Bulls secondary and this will open up opportunities for explosive plays down the field.
USF vs UAB
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how USF and UAB match up statistically:
USF Offense vs. UAB Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 105 | 131 | |
| Line Yards | 64 | 130 | |
| Pass Success | 119 | 103 | |
| Havoc | 105 | 87 | |
| Finishing Drives | 93 | 115 | |
| Quality Drives | 98 | 132 | |
UAB Offense vs. USF Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 34 | 58 | |
| Line Yards | 29 | 40 | |
| Pass Success | 20 | 83 | |
| Havoc | 106 | 40 | |
| Finishing Drives | 53 | 83 | |
| Quality Drives | 54 | 75 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 119 | 111 |
| PFF Coverage | 109 | 105 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 18 | 133 |
| Middle 8 | 96 | 126 |
| Seconds per Play | 22.0 (5) | 23.7 (13) |
| Rush Rate | 59.3% (38) | 43.1% (123) |
USF vs UAB
Betting Pick & Prediction
I was very close to backing the Blazers in this spot, but I can't for a couple of reasons.
First of all, Dilfer is my mortal enemy, and I'd be betraying my own personal values.
More importantly, this defense is an absolute disaster.
We're going to continue the trend of taking UAB overs, as both of these offenses should find plenty of success throughout the afternoon. I'm a bit worried about the Bulls creating some turnovers, but even if this is the case, that should set them up for quick scoring opportunities.
I took this over earlier in the week at 67.5, but I still really like it at this current number.
Let's hope Dilfer's temper tantrum didn't dismantle any of the Blazers' offensive rhythm.
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