UCF vs. KSU Odds, Picks: How to Bet Knights’ Big 12 Debut
Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Rian Davis (UCF)
UCF vs. Kansas State Odds
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -105 | 52.5 -105o / -115u | +165 |
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -115 | 52.5 -105o / -115u | -200 |
Kansas State is looking to rebound from its loss to Missouri when it hosts UCF.
UCF has started the season 3-0 after two blowout wins against Kent State and Villanova and a victory against Boise State, 18-16, on the blue turf.
The Knights are dealing with an injury to their starting quarterback John Rhys Plumlee and are trying to stay undefeated until his return. However, doing so in their first Big 12 game in the program's history — and on the road in Manhattan — is a tall task.
Kansas State dropped its first game of the season in Columbia on a game-winning field goal as time expired. The Wildcats are the defending Big 12 champions, and to get back to the championship game, they have to win duel like this.
As mentioned in the open, Central Florida is dealing with an injury to its starting quarterback, as Plumlee is out a few weeks with a leg injury.
Gus Malzahn says UCF starting QB John Rhys Plumlee out a “few weeks” w/leg injury but it will not require surgery
— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) September 11, 2023
That means UCF will turn to sophomore Timmy McClain to be its starting quarterback. He had a good game against Villanova on Saturday, going 20-for-28 for 321 yards and two touchdowns, along with 44 yards rushing.
McClain started nine games in 2021 for South Florida and was a really inefficient passer. He only had a 56.9 PFF passing grade, averaged just 7.1 yards per attempt and had only nine big-time throws compared to 13 turnover-worthy plays.
He may have been able to light up an FCS secondary, but it's going to be much more difficult on Saturday against Kansas State.
UCF is currently leading the country in rushing, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt against FBS opponents. To be fair, most of that came in the opener against Kent State, when the Knights ran for 389 yards and 8.5 yards per carry.
The running back tandem of Johnny Richardson and RJ Harvey that averaged a whopping 6.8 yards per carry in 2022 is back, but they're going up against the best rush defense in the country so far this season.
UCF has been solid defensively through three games, ranking inside the top 25 in both Success Rate Allowed and EPA/Play Allowed.
UCF returned seven starters on defense, including three of its top four tacklers. The Knights also added Georgia transfer Rian Davis to go along with Jason Johnson, who was first-team All-ACC last season.
UCF is already top-15 in both EPA/Rush Allowed and Stuff Rate.
The story of this game is Will Howard, whose status is up in the air at the time of writing.
K-State OC Collin Klein says QB Will Howard has gotten better every day this week but it remains day to day.
— Ryan Gilbert (@GPCRyanG) September 21, 2023
Howard played in seven of the final eight games of the 2022 season, and even though Kansas State went 6-1 with him under center, he really wasn't that effective of a passer.
However, he had a really good game against Missouri, putting up an 85.3 PFF passing grade and tossing three touchdowns. That game pushed Kansas State inside the top 40 in both EPA/Pass and Passing Success Rate.
However, the Kansas State offense is built on having a stable rushing attack. Last season, Kansas State was very reliant on Deuce Vaughn to be the incredible running back he was. His backup, DJ Giddens, was no slouch either, as he averaged 5.8 yards per carry.
Giddens is now the starter and has already run for 216 yards and forced 12 missed tackles this season.
He also has the benefit of playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the country. Kansas State had an above-average offensive line last year, but the unit returned all five starters and should see a pretty big jump after ranking 45th in PFF pass-blocking grade.
One thing the Wildcats have done successfully is defend the run. Kansas State only allowed Missouri and Troy to rush for a total of 144 yards and is currently No. 1 in the country in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and Defensive Line Yards.
Missouri currently has the best PFF run-blocking grade in the country, which makes holding the Tigers to 74 rushing yards all that more impressive.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UCF and Kansas State match up statistically:
UCF Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 12 | 1 | |
| Line Yards | 37 | 1 | |
| Pass Success | 15 | 62 | |
| Havoc | 18 | 17 | |
| Finishing Drives | 62 | 33 | |
| Quality Drives | 3 | 41 |
Kansas State Offense vs. UCF Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 52 | 41 | |
| Line Yards | 80 | 36 | |
| Pass Success | 29 | 42 | |
| Havoc | 21 | 70 | |
| Finishing Drives | 16 | 60 | |
| Quality Drives | 71 | 22 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 90 | 39 |
| PFF Coverage | 80 | 90 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 25 | 74 |
| Middle 8 | 37 | 48 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.8 (17) | 26.0 (50) |
| Rush Rate | 60.5% (15) | 52.6% (66) |
UCF vs. Kansas State
Betting Pick & Prediction
The market has made a pretty clear indication as to whether Howard is playing or not. Kansas State opened as a -6.5 favorite and is now down to as low as -3.5 at some books.
So, it looks like we have two backup quarterbacks going up against each other in this game, which means the pressure is going to be on both of these rushing attacks to be effective.
The problem is both of these defenses are very stout against the run, which means it's going to be a bit of a stalemate.
Therefore, I like the value on Under 52.5 points (BetMGM), and I would play it down 49.5.
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