NCAAF Odds, Picks for UAB vs UTSA

I've had the pleasure of covering these UAB games for six consecutive weeks, mostly because I like dunking on Trent Dilfer.

We're now 4-2 on the year betting on a side or total in Blazers games. Why not make it a seventh week in a row?

Let's head to San Antonio, Texas, where the UTSA Roadrunners will host the UAB Blazers.

The Roadrunners looked great last week with Frank Harris returning from injury. They look to continue that success against the Dilfers.

As much as I'd love to spend the following 300 words destroying big baby Dilfer, there's a betting angle that we should be discussing.

I'm sure Dilfer celebrated the return of $1 margaritas at Applebee's last weekend as his team destroyed South Florida. The Blazers offense put up a gaudy 608 total yards, with 355 coming through the air.

I'm continually impressed with quarterback Jacob Zeno. He's made incredible strides as a passer. I realize the strength of schedule isn't there, but I've seen enough from him to consider him an elite Group of Five quarterback.

Running back Jermaine Brown had a terrific game on the ground against USF, including a couple of long-highlight reel runs.

UAB's offense is humming right now. I don't see that changing this week.

The Blazers rank top 25 nationally in both Rushing and Passing Success Rates and 14th in Offensive Line Yards. The line play has been much better than expected.

The other key for this Blazers offense has been their ability to develop and finish quality drives, ranking top-55 nationally in both categories.

They might struggle to establish the run against a stingy UTSA rush defense, but I have faith in the offensive line to get some push.

They may struggle to run a bit against a stingy UTSA run defense, but I have enough faith in this offensive line to be somewhat effective. Also, the Roadrunners' secondary is a clear weakness, so Zeno should cruise here.

The UAB defense might as well not exist. The scoreboard was lopsided last weekend, but the Blazers still allowed 471 total yards.

Their fast-paced offense drains their defense. And the unit has a tough time getting off the field, anyway. The Blazers rank bottom-25 nationally in Quality Drives and Finishing Drives.

I expect the Blazers to remain explosive on offense and dreadful on defense.

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Meep Meep is back!

Harris looked sharp last week in the Roadrunners' 49-34 victory over Temple. He completed 25-of-33 passes for 338 yards and three scores.

The Roadrunners should have no issues moving the ball against this pathetic UAB defense. Harris should have a field day against this lousy secondary, which has been getting torched all season long.

The key to this breakdown is the UTSA defense, the team's weak link. This unit just allowed 542 yards to Temple, and the Blazers offense is a huge step up in competition.

UTSA loves to move fast on offense, as they are nearly identical in seconds per play as the Blazers (18th and 19th in the country, respectively). We should see plenty of possessions.

If you looked at their defensive metrics, you wouldn't think twice about their legitimacy. The Roadrunners rank top-30 nationally in Rush Success Rate Allowed and Defensive Line Yards.

The secondary is the issue. They rank 90th in Passing Success Rate allowed and an abysmal 133rd in PFF's coverage grades.

They also allow plenty of quality drives, and their opponents score consistently after crossing the 40-yard line.

UAB barely runs the football, so their metrics inside the trenches won't correlate in this matchup.

Instead, I expect a ton of passing from both teams in this one. As good as Zeno has been, I still give the edge to Harris in the quarterback battle.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UAB and UTSA match up statistically:

UAB Offense vs. UTSA Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	23	37
Line Yards	14	25
Pass Success	21	90
Havoc	107	87
Finishing Drives	55	95
Quality Drives	47	113

UTSA Offense vs. UAB Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	118	131
Line Yards	94	128
Pass Success	43	89
Havoc	63	78
Finishing Drives	68	118
Quality Drives	93	125

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	101	107
PFF Coverage	114	133
Special Teams SP+	133	94
Middle 8	97	43
Seconds per Play	24.1 (19)	24.0 (18)
Rush Rate	46.4% (111)	51.5% (87)

I wrote last week that my soul would "burst into flames" if I backed Trent Dilfer. I must say, it took a lot of restraint to avoid taking the points here.

All bias aside, I think the smart bet here is the over.

Both offenses can hang huge numbers, especially against two struggling defenses.

I will continue to bet Blazers overs until the chickens come to roost, and this is too good of a spot to pass up.

I really don't think the market has adjusted for Harris' return or UAB's offense, so let's keep taking advantage while we can.