Tulane vs Memphis Betting Odds & Prediction: The Friday Pick to Make
Joe Murphy/Getty Images. Pictured: Memphis quarterback Seth Henigan.
Tulane vs Memphis Odds
| Tulane Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -115 | 54.5 -100o / -110u | -200 |
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -105 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
A huge game in the AAC headlines Friday night's college football slate as Tulane travels to take on Memphis.
It's been an interesting season for Tulane, which has had to play two games without Michael Pratt under center after coming into the season ranked inside the top 25. The Green Wave still sit at 4-1 and are in the driver's seat to get to the AAC Championship game, but this is their toughest conference game this season.
Memphis got a late win over Boise State in its last outing to get to 4-1 on the season. The Tigers, much like Tulane, are in the driver's seat themselves in terms of the AAC, as they have one of the easiest schedules to finish the 2023 campaign.
If they can win this game at home, the Tigers will almost be a certainty for the AAC Championship game.
Ever since Pratt returned from injury, his performances really haven't been that impressive. Against Nicholls State and UAB, he went a combined 22-for-46 for 374 yards with four touchdowns and an interception.
Failing to throw for over 200 yards against those two secondaries is concerning, and what's also concerning is his PFF passing grade was below 70 in both of those contests.
Now he's going to face a much better secondary, and the pressure is going to be on him to throw because Tulane's rushing attack has been struggling — to say the least.
The Green Wave are 115th in Rushing Success Rate, 80th in EPA/Rush and 110th in Rushing Explosiveness. The offensive line is doing its job — ranking inside the top 35 in Offensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate Allowed — but Makhi Hughes — outside of his last game against UAB — has been pretty subpar in his freshman season.
The worry here for Tulane has to be its secondary. The front seven has done a good job stopping the run — allowing a very low 2.7 yards per carry and ranking inside the top 30 in both Rushing Success Rate and Defensive Line Yards — but the secondary is not putting up good numbers, and quite frankly, it hasn't faced many good quarterbacks.
Jaxson Dart is the best quarterback the unit has faced, and he put up 9.9 yards per attempt against the Green Wave.
For the season, the Green Wave are 78th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, 50th in EPA/Pass Allowed and 60th in terms of a PFF coverage grade.
That's not exactly encouraging when you're about to face a quarterback as good as Seth Henigan.
Henigan is back for this third season as Memphis' starting quarterback, and he's been improving each year. He shined bright with a PFF passing grade of 80.6 last season and has built upon that with a 81.2 PFF passing grade through five games in 2023.
What makes Henigan so good is that he's not only great when he has a clean pocket, but he's one of the best quarterbacks in college football when blitzed.
Opposing defenses have blitzed Memphis 34.3% of the time and Henigan has a 90.2 PFF passing grade and is averaging 9.8 yards per attempt with an 81.0% adjusted completion percentage in those situations. He's also 27th in college football in EPA among quarterbacks who have at least 100 pass attempts.
Roc Taylor has really become a big-play threat over the past few games, putting up a combined 245 yards receiving on just 12 catches against Boise State and Missouri.
Roc Taylor’s second career touchdown tied it up for Memphis, 14-14 at the half.
— Oliver Hodgkinson (@ojhodgkinson) September 15, 2023
The Tigers' run game has struggled to get going — it's outside the top 80 in Rushing Success Rate, Offensive Line Yards and EPA/Rush.
That's okay, though, because Memphis' biggest advantage is going to come through the air.
Memphis' secondary has been outstanding this season. The Tigers are 10th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, 12th in Passing Explosiveness Allowed and 28th in terms of a PFF coverage grade.
In this game last season, they held Pratt to just 158 yards and 5.4 yards per attempt, which was his lowest mark of the season.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tulane and Memphis match up statistically:
Tulane Offense vs. Memphis Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 115 | 71 | |
| Line Yards | 32 | 78 | |
| Pass Success | 29 | 10 | |
| Havoc | 67 | 17 | |
| Finishing Drives | 97 | 45 | |
| Quality Drives | 26 | 24 |
Memphis Offense vs. Tulane Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 85 | 28 | |
| Line Yards | 85 | 27 | |
| Pass Success | 37 | 86 | |
| Havoc | 72 | 12 | |
| Finishing Drives | 29 | 24 | |
| Quality Drives | 70 | 39 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 68 | 117 |
| PFF Coverage | 60 | 47 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 38 | 66 |
| Middle 8 | 65 | 18 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.0 (106) | 26.8 (67) |
| Rush Rate | 60.4% (19) | 50.3% (94) |
Tulane vs Memphis
Betting Pick & Prediction
Should Tulane really be a road favorite here? I understand that Pratt is back under center, but his performances in his two games back have been far from elite.
The pressure is also going to be on him in this game, especially if Tulane's subpar rushing attack is not able to get going.
That's not a good combination given how good Memphis' secondary has been this season and how well the Tigers limited Pratt in this game last year on the road.
Henigan is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the Group of Five and has shown it for three years now. The Tigers' passing attack against Tulane's average-at-best secondary is going to be the biggest advantage Memphis will have in this game.
I have Memphis projected as a -1.1 favorite here at home, so I love the value on the Tigers at +4.5 (BetMGM), and I would play it down to +3.
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