College Football Predictions, Picks | How to Bet Tuesday MACtion (Nov. 7)

There's nothing quite like a Tuesday night in November. This week, 12 teams in the Mid-American Conference will take the field, and it all starts with a three-game MACtion slate tonight.

First, the Ball State Cardinals will take on the Northern Illinois Huskies to open the night, while the Central Michigan Chippewas meet the Western Michigan Broncos in a game for the Victory Cannon.

Then, to close it all out, Kurtis Rourke and the Ohio Bobcats face Cole Snyder and the Buffalo Bulls.

Our staff broke down each game and came through with a betting pick for all three matchups, so let's dive into their analysis for Tuesday night's MACtion college football games below.

How to Bet Tuesday MACtion · Nov. 7

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups from Tuesday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By Mike Ianniello

Our first week of midweek MACtion did not disappoint in providing all of the beauty and magic we expect on Tuesday nights. It was snowing, it was windy, there was nobody in the stands, there were missed field goals galore, and of course, there was beautifully bad football.

Ball State won the MAC in 2020 but has taken a step back in the last three seasons. The Cardinals went 6-7 in 2021, 5-7 in 2022 and are just 2-7 in what has been a disappointing campaign in 2023. Injuries have crushed this team, but it continues to fight, covering the spread in three straight.

Northern Illinois has one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the country, and Thomas Hammock always has a good running back. The Huskies started the year with a win on the road at Boston College before losing four straight games, including a home matchup against FCS Southern Illinois.

NIU has bounced back in conference play, winning three of its last four games. But of its nine games, seven of them have been decided by 10 points or less.

So, is this spread too many points on Tuesday night? Let's dive into the Ball State vs. Northern Illinois odds and find a pick and prediction for Tuesday, Nov. 7.

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The Cardinals’ quarterback rotation has been a mess. Veteran Layne Hatcher started the season under center but was eventually replaced by Kadin Semonza. After Semonza decided to redshirt, sophomore Kiael Kelly got the nod.

It has not been an easy task for any of the quarterbacks with star tight end Brady Hunt and No. 1 receiver Ty Robinson both going down with season-ending injuries. The offense has struggled to get anything going through the air, ranking 116th in Passing Success Rate.

What Kelly adds that the other options did not is his rushing upside. Kelly is a run-first quarterback, turning this offense into a read-option scheme. Over the last four games, Kelly has 347 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.

He's paired with star running back Marquez Cooper, who was an All-MAC running back with Kent State in 2022. He averages 75 yards per game this year but has gone for 252 yards in his last two contests.

Defensively, the Cardinals had to replace a ton of talent in the secondary, losing three defensive backs signed to NFL rosters. It was expected that the group would take a step back, and it's really struggled in coverage this season, ranking outside of the top 100 in Success Rate against the pass.

This unit has been better against the run, though.

Despite losing star linebacker Clayton Coll to a season-ending injury, this linebacker corps has some talent led by Keionte Newson and Cole Pearce. Ball State ranks second in the MAC in rushing defense, allowing 121 yards on the ground per game.

Rocky Lombardi is attempting to become the first college football player ever to earn academic tenure. He has taken the Van Wilder approach, currently in his seventh year in college after four years at Michigan State and three at Northern Illinois.

Lombardi has played 48 college games, and while some things get better with age, it’s safe to say Lombardi has reached his ceiling. The Clive, Iowa, native has thrown nine touchdown passes with five interceptions this year.

Just like the Cardinals, Northern Illinois lost its top receiver in Kacper Rutkiewicz, forcing Trayvon Rudolph to step up.

Hammond wants his team to have a run-first mindset. The former NIU running back has had a strong running game ever since returning to his alma mater.

With Harrison Waylee transferring to Wyoming, Antario Brown has taken over the bell-cow role. He's averaging 93.7 yards per game with seven touchdowns and ranks second in the MAC with 6.2 yards per carry.

The strength of this Northern Illinois team has been its pass defense. The Huskies sit 19th in the country in Passing Success Rate on defense and sixth at preventing explosiveness through the air.

Safety Nate Valcarcel leads the team with three interceptions, and cornerback Javaughn Byrd has been a lock-down player in coverage.

Stopping the run has been another story.

The Huskies rank just 110th in Success Rate against the run and have allowed over 167 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry. Kent State is the only team in the conference that has allowed more than the 18 rushing touchdowns Northern Illinois has surrendered.

This line is too high, as this should be a great matchup for Ball State.

Northern Illinois has been tremendous at defending the pass. The only problem is the Cardinals have abandoned the pass and are basically running the option.

In three starts, Kelly has attempted just 51 total passes while running the ball 53 times. He has more rushing yards than passing yards this season.

The one-two punch of Kelly and Cooper should find success against a Huskies defense that has really struggled to stop the run.

Last week against Central Michigan, we saw a very similar offensive attack torch Northern Illinois for 331 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Running back Marion Lukes had 202 yards and a score, while quarterback Jase Bauer scrambled for 106 yards and two touchdowns. Expect Ball State to follow that same blueprint in this one.

The Cardinals’ biggest weakness has been their passing defense, but Northern Illinois is at its best when it runs the ball. In the Huskies' four wins, Lombardi has been held under 200 yards passing each time.

Northern Illinois plays a style of football that tends to lead to close games. Both of these teams play extremely slow and want to keep the ball on the ground, which makes it harder for anybody to pull away.

This is a good matchup for the Cardinals, and the read option led by Kelly and Cooper should find enough success to get Ball State the cover here.

Pick: Ball State +10.5 (Play to +10)

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By Brett Pund

The Battle for the Cannon kicks off MACtion this week with Western Michigan hosting Central Michigan on Tuesday night.

Although the rivalry dates back to 1907, the Victory Cannon Trophy started in 2008. WMU has held the trophy nine times compared to CMU’s six.

The Broncos also hold the all-time lead with a record of 52-39-2 in the heated rivalry. This year’s winner also claims the Michigan MAC Trophy.

Who doesn’t love a midweek rivalry game in the MAC? Let’s dive into this game to find the best betting value on the board.

Putting the rivalry aside, this is a very important game for Central Michigan head coach Jim McElwain, who's searching for his third bowl appearance in the last four years with the program.

With Ohio and Toledo left to close out the schedule, this game is crucial for the Chippewas and their bowl bid.

CMU put up one of its best performances of the year last week on a snowy Halloween night, defeating Northern Illinois, 37-31. The Chippewas rushed for a season-high 331 yards, 7.0 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns.

The standout performer in the win was running back Marion Lukes, who earned MAC West Offensive Player of the Week honors. Lukes racked up a career-high 202 rushing yards on an average of 9.6 yards per carry.

Since 2019, Central Michigan has gone 12-3 in November, and McElwain needs that to continue to add another bowl trip to his resume.

In the offseason, Western Michigan decided to go in a new direction by bringing in former Louisville offensive coordinator Lance Taylor to lead the program.

This is his first season as a head coach, and it has not gone to plan. However, the Broncos did pull off a dominant win in their last game against Eastern Michigan.

One key to the victory was WMU’s opportunistic defense, which recorded two safeties. The school had not had two safeties in a season since 2011.

In addition to those two-pointers, Western Michigan also scored a touchdown on a strip-sack and racked up 10 tackles for loss.

On the offensive side of the ball, everything goes through Kenneth Womack who leads the MAC in receptions per game with 6.0. He is also in the Top 25 in the country in the stat, and Womack will need this to continue to give the Broncos a chance.

When I dove into this game, I thought the spread and total were both right on the mark. However, I did find a play I liked in the props market.

So, my best bet is for Western Michigan to be leading at halftime on the three-way moneyline at -120 odds at FanDuel. If you want the push protection, you can take the -140 being offered.

WMU is one of the more profitable teams in the country in the first half, ranking sixth nationally with a first-half against-the-spread record of 7-2.

In MAC play, this same bet would have cashed in three of its five games so far, including at Toledo in the conference opener.

Meanwhile, Central Michigan has not gotten off to fast starts on the road. The Chippewas were down by 16 at Buffalo, which happened before it trailed by a touchdown at Ball State.

As you can see above, this is the same CMU team that's outside the top 100 in nearly all defensive metrics.

It was also announced that Central Michigan will be down two players who were suspended for the first half after a scuffle in last week’s game. Keep an eye on the duo, which might get announced closer to kickoff.

With WMU unlikely to make a bowl game, the Broncos can salvage their season by scooping two rivalry trophies with this win on Tuesday night.

Pick: Western Michigan 1H ML (-120)

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By John Feltman

It's time to dive into the Ohio vs. Buffalo odds and make a pick and prediction in this college football betting preview.

Did you think I would give up on MACtion after giving out a losing play in the 2023 Toilet Bowl? Sorry, folks — Mama didn't raise no quitter.

I'm back to give out not one, but two plays for this week.

Be on the lookout for my Bowling Green vs. Kent State write-up tomorrow. As delicious as that matchup sounds, we have some business to take care of first.

Midweek MACtion is in full swing as we head up to Western New York, where Buffalo will host Ohio. The Bobcats are coming off their bye week after losing a stunning game to Miami (OH), 30-16.

The Bulls, meanwhile, forced four Toledo turnovers last week but still managed to lose the game, 31-13. It's been a frustrating season up in Buffalo, and they certainly will have their hands full in this one.

Let's break down these two teams and uncover some betting value for Tuesday night.

This is essentially homecoming for Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke, as the Canadian-born signal-caller grew up a short distance away in Ontario. With a tasty matchup against this Bulls secondary, I would be stunned if this added motivation didn't result in an explosive Bobs aerial attack.

Ohio is alive and well in its search for a MAC Championship berth, as its remaining schedule comes in on the lighter side. That's just what the doctor ordered, as this is a dream matchup coming off of the bye week.

Rourke is a big reason this offense has been humming, as this Bobs team ranks 25th in the country in Passing Success Rate. I expect them to exploit Buffalo's weak secondary and rely heavily on their passing game in this contest.

The one area of concern I have in this matchup is Ohio's ability to finish drives, where it ranks 108th in FBS. I realize Buffalo doesn't have a great offense, but if the Bobs settle for too many field goals, the Bulls could take advantage.

Defensively, this is a tasty matchup for the Bobs.

I've said before that Miami (OH) has the best defense in the conference, but I may have to pivot in that take. The Bobcats sit top-20 nationally in the majority of defensive metrics, most notably Rushing Success Rate and Line Yards.

Buffalo's ability to move the ball efficiently primarily comes from the ground game, so this is a huge mismatch.

Even if the Bobs offense is a bit slow out of the gate, I expect their defense to dominate from the opening kick. The Bulls shouldn't put too many points on the board in this one.

Sadly, I've backed this Bulls team a couple of times this season, and they've let me down in a big way. I thought this offense would be much better than its current state.

A lot of its offensive issues are outlined in the advanced metrics, as the Bulls sit outside the top 100 in Offensive Line Yards and Passing Success Rate.

Quarterback Cole Snyder has been an absolute train wreck, and he somehow continues to get worse each week. Snyder completed only 34% of his passes and threw two interceptions last week. The Bulls defense forced four turnovers last week, but their offense couldn't capitalize.

I have major concerns about the offense, and this is not the matchup in which it could find its rhythm. The long bright spot is that this unit is 24th in Havoc Allowed, which makes me question how Snyder is constantly turning the ball over.

Defensively, the numbers get a lot better when you dig into the metrics. The Bulls rank inside the top 35 in Pass Success, Rush Success and Line Yards.

This defense is good enough to win plenty of games down the stretch, but the problem is their offense will continue to be the sole reason they get destroyed every week.

I think this Buffalo defense can slow down Rourke and company, but it won't be enough to overcome its anemic offense.

I'm rolling with another contrarian pick this week, and I'm going to swallow the points with Ohio here.

This is a great spot for the Bobs coming off of the bye, and despite the Bulls' stingy defense, I think Rourke will find some success against a unit that ranks just 74th in PFF coverage grading.

Outside of Liberty, the Bulls haven't faced a good passing offense all season, so it's possible their defensive metrics against the pass are a bit inflated.

With a total this low, I have much more faith in the Bobcats' ability to provide the majority of the scoring.

I originally wanted to target an under in this game, but the Bulls offense is too bad to back. I could see Snyder turning the ball over multiple times, leading to easy scores for Ohio.

Look for the Bobs to keep their MAC title hopes alive as they look sharp out of the bye.

Pick: Ohio -7 (Play to -7.5)

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