NCAAF Odds & Picks Troy vs Georgia State: Value on Trojans
Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Gunnar Watson (Troy)
Troy vs Georgia State Odds
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
| Georgia State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
Let's head down to Atlanta, Georgia, where we have a terrific Sun Belt matchup between the Troy Trojans and the undefeated Georgia State Panthers.
It's been a terrific season for a Georgia State offense that's seemingly scoring points at will.
Meanwhile, Troy took care of business last week against Western Kentucky, but failed to cover the number.
Let's get right to it and make some Troy vs. Georgia State betting predictions.
Troy's defense isn't as good as it was last season, but it's still this team's anchor. The Trojans arguably should've beaten Kansas State on the road a couple of weeks ago if they didn't have so many offensive blunders.
The Trojans' defense is 28th in Rushing Success Rate and third in Line Yards. They're in the top half of the country against the pass, which is important against a Georgia State team that's had a ton of success through the air.
Offensively, quarterback Gunnar Watson has thrown for eight touchdowns and three interceptions this season. He's also set up to have a nice day against a Georgia State secondary that's been gashed in nearly every game.
The real question for Troy's offense will be how much success running back Kimani Vidal can have against Georgia State's stingy front.
However, I have a ton of faith in Vidal to get the job done because he's averaging almost six yards per carry and also has a couple of highlight-reel runs this season.
However, the offense's ability to finish drives remains an area of concern. The Panthers' defense has been exceptional, but I'm curious to see how it holds up against a legitimate opponent.
The Panthers have impressed me so far, but now it's time for a real test.
The Trojans are — by far — the best team Georgia State has faced, and if the Panthers continue their winning ways, I will be all aboard the hype train.
However, there are a few areas of concern that have kept me skeptical.
First off, the Panthers run the ball 61% of the time. That's all fine and dandy, but it's not a good idea against Troy's defensive front. The Panthers have found success through the air, but have yet to face a legit defense.
The Panthers have been excellent in Havoc Allowed and luckily, the Trojans struggle to create any themselves. I don't think the Panthers will be able to run the ball like they usually do, so veteran quarterback Darren Grainger will need to be efficient through the air.
As for the defense, it's been elite in most metrics. Notably, Georgia State is 36th in Rushing Success Rate and 19th in Line Yards.
I have concerns about the Panthers' ability to tackle and cover in the secondary, as they're 121st and 124th, respectively, in these categories.
This leads me to believe that Troy's offense could be in for a big day if the passing game is clicking.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Troy and Georgia State match up statistically:
Troy Offense vs. Georgia State Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 110 | 36 | |
| Line Yards | 67 | 19 | |
| Pass Success | 104 | 91 | |
| Havoc | 130 | 68 | |
| Finishing Drives | 95 | 45 | |
| Quality Drives | 106 | 44 |
Georgia State Offense vs. Troy Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 122 | 28 | |
| Line Yards | 107 | 3 | |
| Pass Success | 24 | 54 | |
| Havoc | 46 | 90 | |
| Finishing Drives | 23 | 107 | |
| Quality Drives | 54 | 90 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 27 | 121 |
| PFF Coverage | 35 | 124 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 83 | 61 |
| Middle 8 | 29 | 124 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.3 (76) | 24.6 (27) |
| Rush Rate | 48.9% (112) | 60.9% (13) |
Troy vs Georgia State
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is Troy's game to win, and I think the market surrounding the Panthers will go back to reality. The Panthers have some talent, but I definitely think their 4-0 start is partially due to their soft schedule.
This is the top of the market for the Panthers, and I don't think the public realizes it.
The Trojans flipped to a favorite on Thursday, which is a bit strange considering the total amount of bets on the Panthers thus far.
This is a classic case of a market overreaction, and I don't think people realize how talented Troy is.
Oh, by the way, the Panthers got absolutely shredded by Rhode Island in Week 1.
Give me the Trojans all the way.
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