The Penn State Nittany Lions (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten) head to Minneapolis on Saturday for a Big Ten battle against the Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-4, 4-3). Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Let's dive into my Penn State vs. Minnesota predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 23.
Penn State has won 2 in a row after suffering its only loss to Ohio State. The Nittany Lions are coming off a 49-10 demolition of Purdue, giving them momentum heading into Saturday.
Minnesota, meanwhile, is coming off a 26-19 loss to Rutgers, which snapped a 4-game winning streak.
Penn State enters as a -11.5 favorite with the over/under at 45. So, where does the betting lie in this Saturday afternoon Big Ten battle?
Penn State vs Minnesota Prediction, Pick
- Penn State vs Minnesota Pick: Minnesota +12.5
My Minnesota vs. Penn State best bet is on the Golden Gophers to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at ESPN Bet, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Penn State vs Minnesota Odds
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 45 -110 / -110 | -450 |
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 45 -110 / -110 | +350 |
- Penn State vs Minnesota Spread: Penn State -11.5 (-110) · Minnesota +11.5 (-110)
- Penn State vs Minnesota Over/Under: 45 Points
- Penn State vs Minnesota Moneyline: Penn State -450 · Minnesota +350
Penn State vs Minnesota Preview
I've had this spot circled since Minnesota lost to Rutgers prior to its bye week.
I really like this Minnesota staff, especially defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman, who has his unit playing at a top-15 level nationally.
I expect a pristine game plan from the Gophers on both sides of the ball against a Penn State team that comes in a bit overvalued in the market for its second straight road game after back-to-back blowout wins over Washington (ideal matchup and spot) and lowly Purdue.
Defensively, Minnesota has enough horses up front to at least compete with Penn State's vaunted rushing attack.
I also believe it can keep its extremely underrated cornerbacks on islands against Penn State's underwhelming wide receiver room and dedicate more resources to slowing down Tyler Warren.
On the other side of the ball, Minnesota has a completely different-looking offense this season with New Hampshire transfer quarterback Max Brosmer, who has continued to improve with each passing week.
The Gophers are now extremely pass-heavy, ranking 113th in Rush Rate — just one season after ranking 13th in that category, going from 60% rush to 45%.
However, the passing attack works as almost an extension of the running game with a plethora of short-to-medium quick passes.
I think that's the best way to attack a Penn State defense that you simply can't run on. A few other opponents have had success doing just that against the Nittany Lions this season because the relative weakness of this very good stop unit is in coverage.
Brosmer also gets to work behind a plus offensive line that could get Tyler Cooper back out of the bye, which will enable the Gophers to go back to their original starting five after having to shift a few guys around the past two games.
That would certainly be helpful against Penn State's pass rush.
And again — a theme I've hammered home in this piece all season long — are we sure Penn State is as elite as some think? Tell me its most impressive win across a schedule that hasn't been overly difficult.
Plus, besides lowly Purdue, which I now have power-rated outside the top 100, Penn State's other two road league results weren't overly impressive.
It needed to storm back late from a two-touchdown deficit to beat USC in overtime (which has aged worse) and needed a pick-six to flip a close game in Madison against Wisconsin.
This offense still really lacks explosiveness, making it much more difficult to build big margins against competent defenses. And Minnesota certainly has a more-than-competent defense.
Penn State vs Minnesota Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Penn State and Minnesota match up statistically:
Penn State Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 8 | 25 | |
| Line Yards | 14 | 34 | |
| Pass Success | 2 | 30 | |
| Havoc | 3 | 24 | |
| Finishing Drives | 10 | 35 | |
| Quality Drives | 6 | 28 | |
Minnesota Offense vs. Penn State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 68 | 10 | |
| Line Yards | 113 | 3 | |
| Pass Success | 38 | 23 | |
| Havoc | 67 | 10 | |
| Finishing Drives | 26 | 9 | |
| Quality Drives | 39 | 16 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 62 | 89 |
| PFF Coverage | 19 | 26 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 75 | 85 |
| Middle 8 | 9 | 41 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.2 (114) | 29.7 (119) |
| Rush Rate | 59% (27) | 47% (109) |
Penn State vs Minnesota Pick & Prediction
In a battle of two elite defenses and slow-paced offenses where points could come at a premium without many explosive plays, I'll take the home pup coming off of its bye week with a few matchups I like on both sides of the ball.
I actually think the Gophers will have a decent shot at pulling off this outright upset, assuming Brosmer can take care of the ball, which he's done for the most part this season.
For what it's worth, Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck is 11-5 ATS (68.8%) when his team has 10 or more days between games, and that only includes regular-season contests. Fleck has also won all five bowls games he has appeared in with the Gophers.
I project this spread closer to 10, so I'll take the points with the home 'dog.
Pick: Minnesota +12.5 (Play to +11.5)
Penn State vs Minnesota Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 23 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS |
Penn State heads to Minneapolis on Saturday to take on Minnesota at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Penn State vs Minnesota Betting Trends
Penn State vs Minnesota Weather
