Cincinnati vs. Oklahoma Odds
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 57.5 -115o / -105u | +450 |
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 57.5 -115o / -105u | -550 |
Oklahoma opens Big 12 play on the road on Saturday when it travels to Nippert Stadium to take on Cincinnati.
Oklahoma has come out of the gate firing on all cylinders by putting up points for fun. The Sooners are 3-0 after wins over Arkansas State, SMU and Tulsa, but this is their first big test of the season.
Cincinnati (2-1) was upset as a two-touchdown favorite against Miami (OH) last weekend. Before falling to the RedHawks, the Bearcats were coming off of an emotional win over Pittsburgh in a rivalry game that dates back to their time in the Big East.
This will be an emotional game — Cincinnati is playing its first ever Big 12 game — so Nippert Stadium will be rocking on Saturday.
Cincinnati Bearcats
It's a complete and total rebuild in Scott Satterfield's first season at Cincinnati.
He only returns three starters on the offensive side of the ball, but brought in a lot of transfers to help fill the void.
Emery Jones has been in college football for six years now, and if he's proven anything to us, it's that he's an average starting quarterback at the Power Five level.
Image via PFF.
He was banged up a lot last season at Arizona State, but given what we saw from his only full season as a starter at Florida, his best ability is as a runner.
In 2021, Jones had 106 attempts on the ground, averaged 6.2 yards per carry, forced 27 missed tackles and had 30 runs over 10+ yards. He's already averaging 4.9 yards per carry and has eight runs over 10+ yards this season.
So, if he's able to replicate his 2021 season for a Cincinnati offense that's running the ball 61.9% of the time, the Bearcats could have something like what Satterfield had with Malik Cunningham last season.
Cincinnati lost its first-team All-American linebacker Ivan Pace Jr., who recorded 137 tackles a season ago. The loss is massive, but Cincinnati will be stout in the trenches, as it brings back its two best defensive linemen in Jowon Briggs — who was first-team All-AAC — and Eric Phillips.
Through three games, Cincinnati has been incredibly stout versus the run, allowing only 3.5 yards per carry to Pittsburgh and Miami (OH).
The defensive line has also been in the backfield with regularity, as Cincinnati is 10th in the nation in Havoc. Meanwhile, Oklahoma — despite winning by crazy margins — is 62nd in Havoc Allowed.
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma has put up some eye popping numbers through three games, scoring 167 points and averaging 7.4 yards per play.
However, a lot that came against two terrible defenses in Tulsa and Arkansas State.
The Sooners did only average 4.9 yards per play and only scored 28 points against SMU in Week 2, so against a decent defense, Dillon Gabriel could be slowed down.
And when you look at his PFF passing grades from last season, he didn't have too many elite games.
Image via PFF.
Now, Gabriel and Jeff Lebby is always a dangerous combination considering this is the QB's third season in Lebby's system.
However, in terms of weapons around Gabriel, it's more limited than what he had last season.
His top two targets Marvin Mims Jr. and Brayden Willis are gone, leaving Drake Stoops and Jalil Farooq as his main two targets. The Sooners did bring over Austin Stogner and Andrel Anthony via the transfer portal, but losing someone as talented as Mims is a massive loss, even if it hasn't shown up yet.
Oklahoma also lost its second-team All-Big 12 running back Eric Gray, who averaged 6.4 yards per carry. The Sooners return their main two guys — Jovantae Barnes and Marcus Major — behind him last season, but neither averaged over 4.5 yards per carry.
Tawee Walker, though, has led the Sooners in carries after getting 21 against SMU and rushing for 117 yards.
Defense was a major issue for Oklahoma last season and even though it's allowed 14 points through three games, it's not like teams haven't been able to move the ball against the unit.
Tulsa had to start its backup Cardell Williams and he was able to throw for 196 yards on just 17 attempts. SMU averaged close to five yards per play against the Sooners, as well.
Only six starters returned for Brent Venables from a defense that was 92nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 90th in Finishing Drives Allowed last year.
The Sooners should be more physical upfront, but the back end is where there are question marks. Oklahoma lost three starters and five of its top seven cornerbacks last season, along with two starting linebackers.
The Sooners are already showing some cracks on the back end, ranking 53rd in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 58th in EPA/Pass Allowed against some pretty bad quarterbacks through three games.
Cincinnati vs Oklahoma
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma and Cincinnati match up statistically:
Oklahoma Offense vs Cincinnati Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 45 | 40 | |
| Line Yards | 54 | 70 | |
| Pass Success | 1 | 88 | |
| Havoc | 6 | 7 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 3 | 56 | |
| Quality Drives | 8 | 63 | |
Cincinnati Offense vs Oklahoma Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 72 | 9 | |
| Line Yards | 58 | 2 | |
| Pass Success | 20 | 53 | |
| Havoc | 62 | 12 | |
| Finishing Drives | 33 | 20 | |
| Quality Drives | 20 | 8 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 8 | 50 |
| PFF Coverage | 27 | 98 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 39 | 95 |
| Middle 8 | 57 | 21 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.1 (32) | 26.7 (66) |
| Rush Rate | 56.6% (28) | 61.9% (12) |
Cincinnati vs Oklahoma
Betting Pick & Prediction
While the loss to Miami (OH) is not great, Cincinnati really wasn't that bad. It had a 46% Success Rate and had seven trips inside the RedHawks' 40-yard-line, but were only able to come away with 23 points.
We are also forgetting that this team went on the road and beat Pittsburgh in Week 2. Jones is an experienced, capable dual-threat quarterback that can certainly move the ball against an Oklahoma defense that hasn't been tested yet.
Even though Cincinnati lost a lot on the defensive side of the ball, it still has two outstanding pass rushers that have helped the Bearcats rank inside the top 10 in Havoc through Week 3.
Oklahoma may have already put up over 150 points, but putting up 60+ against Arkansas State and Tulsa really isn't that big of an accomplishment. Cincinnati will the best defense the Sooners have seen to date and may be able to slow down the Sooners' high-powered attack.
I only have Oklahoma projected as a -8.7 favorite, so I like the value on the Bearcats at home at +14.5.
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