It's Week 12 of the college football season, and we have some stellar evening matchups.
I have picks for a couple of solid games on the docket: Florida vs. Missouri and Washington vs. Oregon State.
Keep in mind the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, I still have to factor in how much value the number holds compared to my projections. A good or bad spot may sway me one way or the other on a bet I'm on the fence for, but it's certainly more art than science.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 12, here's the full piece.
- 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 units (69.2%)
- 2023: 46-39-0 +2.13 units (54.1%)
- Overall: 91-59-1 +24.95 units (60.7%)
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| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | Oregon State -1 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Florida +12 |
Oregon State -1 vs. Washington
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
Washington remains undefeated on the season, but the Huskies have flirted with disaster a number of times.
After an extremely easy first four games of the season, they barely survived one-possession victories against Arizona, Oregon and Arizona State thanks in part to some good fortune with the Ducks unable to convert a fourth down and Arizona State not having a kicker. The latter ultimately led to a game-sealing pick-six on a fourth-down pass attempt.
Washington then found itself in more close battles against USC, Utah and even Stanford over the past few weeks, which led to three wins by 10 points or fewer.
Purple Reign is vulnerable, and Oregon State matches up well enough to finally finish the job.
You can expect the Beavers to rely heavily on their outstanding offensive line — especially since superb starting center Jake Levengood should return this week — to get Damien Martinez and the ground game rolling against a very poor UW rush defense that ranks in the bottom six nationally in Stuff Rate, Line Yards and Success Rate on rush plays.
Those numbers become even more ominous considering the Huskies are playing a Beavers team that ranks No. 2 in the country in Rushing Success Rate, trailing only LSU.
Ultimately, Oregon State should have no issues getting a consistent push at the line of scrimmage, which will enable it to stay ahead of the chains and set up play-action shots to Silas Bolden, Anthony Gould and company for an offense that surprisingly ranks 15th in FBS in Passing Downs Explosiveness.
That should help it exploit a Washington secondary that consists of an underwhelming group of cover cornerbacks and a banged-up safety room.
On the other side of the ball, Washington features an elite offense, led by Heisman hopeful Michael Penix Jr. and arguably the nation's top wide receiver room.
The Huskies are extremely pass-heavy, although they have utilized running back Dillon Johnson more frequently over the past two weeks.
However, that's not their strength, which should be welcome news for an Oregon State defense that has struggled a bit more against the run this season.
Opponents can efficiently pass on the Beavers, who have just an OK group of cornerbacks — although the outstanding safety duo of Akili Arnold and Kitan Oladapo (who I love) excel at limiting explosive plays through the air, hence Oregon State's top-25 Pass EPA ranking.
The Huskies will certainly move the ball with relative ease at times. They do that against everybody. However, I believe the Oregon State defense will get a few more stops in the red zone to come out on top.
For reference, the Beavers rank sixth and 23rd in Points per Opportunity on offense and defense, respectively. In comparison, the Huskies rank 13th and 68th.
Pick: Oregon State -1 (Play to -2.5)
Notable Nugget
Over the past three seasons, the Beavers are far and away the most profitable home team in all of college football.
Over that span, they have gone an almost unbelievable 17-1 ATS (94.4%) in Corvallis, covering by over 10 points per game.
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Florida +12 at Missouri
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
Last week, Missouri closed as a three-point underdog at home against Tennessee. Now, the Tigers are laying over two touchdowns more against Florida?
I get that Missouri demolished Tennessee, but last I checked, the Gators also did that to the Vols at home after closing as 4.5-point underdogs.
This also isn't the most ideal spot for Missouri, which could come out a bit flat after back-to-back emotional outputs against top-15 opponents.
Plus, star wide receiver Luther Burden III still might not be 100% healthy, while the Tigers also have key injuries at linebacker.
From a matchup perspective, teams aren't going to get much on the ground against Missouri's extremely disciplined one-gap scheme up front.
In order to move the ball against the Tigers, opponents must have an efficient short-passing attack to exploit some of the coverage holes at linebacker and safety while connecting on an occasional deep shot.
Graham Mertz, who ranks fifth in the country in completion percentage at 73.3%, is certainly capable of doing just that with the likes of Ricky Pearsall, Eugene Wilson and tight end Arlis Boardingham.
The Tigers have undoubtedly been super impressive, especially on offense since opening up the playbook under new offensive coordinator Kirby Moore in a victory over Kansas State.
However, I just can't get to this number in a potentially tricky spot for the home favorite in a battle of two teams that have similar overall talent.
Plus, I'm backing the underdog king in Billy Napier, who will try to score until the very end no matter what, which could lead to a back door if necessary.
Pick: Florida +11.5 (Play to +11)
Notable Nugget
Billy Napier is 19-8 ATS (70.4%) as an underdog, covering by 6.5 points per game on average. He's also gone 8-3 (72.7%) against the number when catching double digits and 5-1 against teams ranked inside the top 15.
