NCAAF Picks, Predictions: Stuckey’s 3 Evening Spots, Featuring Boise State vs. Colorado State (Oct. 14)
Chris Gardner/Getty Images. Pictured: Colorado State’s Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi.
We continue the NCAAF Week 7 slate with picks, predictions and three Saturday evening betting spots, featuring Boise State vs. Colorado State and more.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 7, here's the full piece.
- 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 units (69.2%)
- 2023: 22-17-0 +3.18 units (56.4%)
- Overall: 67-37-1 +26.60 units (64.4%)
Stuckey's 3 Saturday Evening Week 7 NCAAF Situational Spots
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 6:30 p.m. | Pitt +8 | |
| 7 p.m. | Georgia State +1 | |
| 9:45 p.m. | Colorado State +7.5 |
Pitt +8 vs. Louisville
6:30 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW
Look, I've been backing trash on Saturdays since I was a clueless bettor in high school two decades ago (yes, I'm old). I'm used to holding my nose and hitting submit, but this is the one that made me cringe the most out of all of the horrific teams I had already bet.
Unfortunately, I just had to play this number and spot with Pittsburgh coming off of a bye at the bottom of its market value against a Louisville team hitting the highway after a huge win in a hyped home spot against Notre Dame.
That bye week can only lead to good things for a Pittsburgh offense that has been beyond dreadful.
As a result of the extreme ineptitude on that side of the ball, the Panthers benched quarterback Phil Jurkovec — who's potentially moving to tight end — and turned to Christian Veilleux under center.
It's hard to forecast what we'll get from the Penn State transfer, but it can't get any worse than Jurkovec, who PFF has rated 121st out of 131 quarterbacks with at least 100 snaps.
Not only is this a good situational spot for Pitt with a potential new-look offense that has made other changes at wide receiver and up front, but it's also a potential letdown for Louisville after that huge win over Notre Dame.
However, I believe that result spoke more about an exhausted Irish team in a brutal spot of their own after a grueling stretch of games.
Plus, I just haven't really been impressed with Louisville's overall body of work.
The Cardinals easily could've lost to a Georgia Tech team that has since demoted its defensive coordinator, an Indiana team that recently fired its offensive coordinator and an NC State team that recently changed quarterbacks.
The defense still has some holes after losing key pieces from last year's unit, and Jack Plummer has made too many turnover-worthy throws so far this season.
Keep in mind Louisville benefited from five takeaways in that victory over Notre Dame. That has been a theme in 2023 for Louisville, which ranks third in FBS with 14 takeaways.
In comparison, Pitt only has four, so potential looming turnover regression could work in the home team's favor here.
Ultimately, I just can't get to this number and like the spot.
Pat Narduzzi is 9-2 ATS (81.8%) with 10 or more days between games, covering by over a touchdown on average.
Georgia State +1 vs. Marshall
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
This is a brutal situational spot for the Thundering Herd, who will play for a fourth straight Saturday following three hard-fought one-possession games, including last week's thriller against NC State.
They also have a date at home with first-place James Madison on a short week coming up next Thursday.
Meanwhile, Georgia State should come in with fresh legs after a bye week, which should give it a significant prep edge against a Marshall team hitting the highway for a second straight road game.
Additionally, this is a pretty good matchup for the Panthers, who rely on two things for offense: their rushing attack with dual-threat quarterback Darren Grainger and running back Marcus Carroll in addition to hitting explosive plays.
Well, that's good news this week against a Marshall defense that has a much stronger pass defense and has allowed far too many explosive plays in 2023.
On the season, Georgia State's offense ranks sixth in overall offensive explosiveness and second nationally on rushing plays. That could spell trouble for a Marshall defense that ranks seventh worst overall in that department and dead last on rushing plays.
When the Herd have the ball, everything starts with star back Rasheen Ali. However, the Georgia State run defense is far and away the strength of a unit that really struggles to defend the pass after losing its two best defensive backs from a season ago.
The Panthers can bottle up Ali, and I just don't trust Cam Fancher to consistently beat this porous secondary without making mistakes.
Backing Sun Belt home teams in conference play has historically been a losing proposition for bettors.
Since 2005, they have gone just 300-391-8 ATS (43.4%) for the lowest ROI (-15.7%) of any league over that period.
Colorado State +7.5 vs. Boise State
9:45 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
After jumping out to a 17-3 lead last week, Colorado State got absolutely embarrassed by Utah State, which finished with over 600 yards of total offense.
As a result, I expect an inspired effort in a home hype revenge spot against a Boise State team that also embarrassed the Rams last season in Jay Norvell's first season in Fort Collins.
Colorado State has bounced back nicely after losses this season.
After getting shredded by Washington State, it should have beaten in-state rival Colorado as sizable dogs. Maybe even more impressive than that effort was the ability to bounce back from that heartbreaking defeat with a win at Middle Tennessee.
Look, the Rams defense is horrid, especially against the pass. However, that's not an overwhelming strength of this Boise State offense, which is now utilizing a two-quarterback system I'm not really in love with.
Boise wants to rely on super underrated and explosive running back Ashton Jeanty, but Colorado State is much more adept at slowing down opposing ground games.
Additionally, when the Rams have the ball, they want to pass and pass some more in Norvell's Air Raid offense.
That plan of attack should succeed against a Boise State secondary that simply can't cover anybody on a unit that got absolutely decimated by attrition from last season's elite defense. The Broncos rank outside the top 100 nationally in almost every possible pass-defense metric.
For what it's worth, I'm banking on star wide receiver Tory Horton and star defensive end Mohamed Kamara suiting up for the Rams. Those are their best players on each side of the ball and likely future pros who got banged up last week.
Norvell sounded hopeful both will suit up, but I may look to buy out of some if there are more dire injury updates later in the week.
As always, follow along in the Action App for any additional plays or updates leading up to Saturday.
Jay Norvell has spent his entire coaching career in the Mountain West. As an underdog in league play, he's gone 20-7 ATS (74.1%) with an average coverage margin of just under six points.
Since 2005, he's been the fourth-most profitable coach when catching points against conference foes out of 425 coaches, per Action Labs.
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