South Dakota State vs Montana Pick, Odds | FCS Championship Betting Preview
C. Morgan Engel/NCAA Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: The FCS Championship trophy.
South Dakota State vs Montana Odds
| SDSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -600 |
| Montana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +425 |
Since 1995, Montana has been an FCS (formerly D1-AA) title game mainstay. In the past 28 years, the Grizzlies have appeared in seven national championship games, winning two.
Their eighth appearance on Saturday, however, is eerily reminiscent of their second back in 1996. Montana is once again running smack dab into a juggernaut.
In '96, it was an undefeated Marshall team playing in its final game as a D1-AA program. As slight favorites, the top-ranked Griz were manhandled on their home field while surrending 220 yards and four touchdown receptions to Randy Moss.
This time around, it's an undefeated South Dakota State team that's rock solid through and through. The Jackrabbits play bully ball on offense (fifth in rushing) and rely on the nation's leader in passing efficiency to always make the right decision with the football.
And when their defense takes the field, there are no appreciable weaknesses to SDSU's approach. South Dakota State leads the nation in both total and scoring defense.
So, this begs the question — is Montana headed for the woodshed, or can it break its three-game losing streak in national title games? The answer may lie on the special teams front.
The Jacks would prefer to beat teams up and run away with games in the second half. But if Montana is successful in limiting their run game a touch, quarterback Mark Gronowski is more than capable of taking this game over.
The veteran passer is coming off one of the best performances of his college career in the national semifinals. Against Albany, the Naperville native completed 15-of-19 passes for 265 yards and three scores. He also added 50 yards on the ground on just five carries.
At this point, given SDSU's style of play, rattling Gronowski is nearly impossible. When he does throw, he seemingly always makes the right decisions and has massive targets to lob the ball to all over the field.
The Janke twins on the perimeter are both 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds. At tight end, Zach Heins is just massive at 6-foot-7 and 265 pounds. Even when Gronowski isn't perfectly accurate, the catch radius of his top three receivers makes up for it.
Now, is this to say that South Dakota State can't be beaten? Absolutely not. The top-ranked Jacks won a rock fight against Southern Illinois on the road, 17-10, and needed a drive in the closing minutes to complete a comeback win over Montana State in early September.
The common factor in both of those scares was that their famed running game was good but not great, falling far below their 230-yard average on the ground. Southern Illinois finished fifth against the run, and Montana was within spitting distance of that at 12th (104 YPG).
So, the blueprint exists for Montana to shorten this game and force Gronowski to throw into its elite secondary on obvious passing downs.
The Grizzlies have the defense to hang around in this game as two-touchdown underdogs. During the regular season, Montana held ranked FCS opponents to just 14.5 points per game and limited one of D-II's best offenses in Ferris State to just 10 points.
It starts up front with a front seven that has produced four defenders with 9.5 or more tackles for loss. They generate negative plays in the run game, and once opponents get behind the sticks, good luck. Montana ranks third nationally in team passing efficiency defense and also sits top-five in turnover margin.
Turnovers and field position are where this game will swing.
The field position element solidly favors Montana. Travis Benham is a solid punter, and his coverage unit is beyond elite. The Grizzlies lead the nation in net punting.
And when it's their turn to field punts, Junior Bergen is a big play waiting to happen. The junior All-American is a blur in the return game and has already taken four kicks — three punts and one kickoff — to the house.
Flipping the field is critical against a ruthlessly efficient SDSU team because the Jacks are tops nationally in both red-zone scoring and red-zone defense.
If the Montana offense is gifted with ideal field position, I believe it has enough weapons to hang with its superior opponent for four quarters.
Quarterback Clifton McDowell took over as the Grizzlies' starter in late September following the program's only loss. He offers major upside with his legs, finding the end zone in six of his nine starts this year.
He's also handled the playoff pressure by tossing overtime touchdown passes in back-to-back games. Against an SDSU defense that has put the clamps on so many teams, having a cool customer at quarterback is crucial.
South Dakota State vs Montana
Pick, Prediction
The weather report in Frisco caught my attention with winds in the 15 MPH range at kickoff. Both of these teams want to lean on their defense and win the field-position battle, and wind making downfield passing tricky only enhances the likelihood of this game coming in under 49.5.
Both quarterbacks are mobile and can impact the game with their legs, so I anticipate both offensive coordinators moving the pocket and setting up high-percentage throws with shorter ADOTs.
So, the under is my first play, which I would continue to play down to 47.
But there's something about this Montana team's moxy in close games that has me leaning toward the Grizzlies. Bobby Hauck's team has won six games by a single possession, two of which came in overtime during their playoff run.
That kind of experience mixed with an opportunistic defense is enough for me to side with the underdog and the points in this spot. I'm going to play Montana +13.5 and under 49.5 as a parlay, as well as each individually.
Pick: Montana +13.5 · Under 49.5 (Play to 47)
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