Michigan State vs Iowa Odds
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -105 | 36.5 -110o / -110u | +290 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -115 | 36.5 -110o / -110u | -375 |
No one in football could use a home game under the lights more than the Iowa Hawkeyes.
After laying a literal goose egg against Penn State in Happy Valley, the Hawkeyes (3-1) have a chance to get back on track against a program whose season is on the ropes.
Michigan State (2-2) has lost back-to-back games by at least three scores as it leaves East Lansing for the first time this season.
No matter how bad the Iowa offense has been, Kinnick Stadium has always treated the Hawkeyes well under the lights. Iowa is 8-3 in its last 11 night games at Kinnick and sits as 12.5-point favorites over the Spartans.
Is a little home cooking just what Iowa needs? Or will its lack of offense keep Michigan State within striking distance of the spread?
Let's dive into the odds and make a pick for Michigan State vs. Iowa in this college football betting preview for Saturday, Sept. 30.
Michigan State Spartans
The Michigan State football program receives more attention for the mess that it is off the field, but the on-field product is a close second in the disarray standings.
The Spartans hit the road this week after consecutive home blowout losses against Washington and Maryland in which the offense failed to break double digits in either contest.
The quarterback position, in particular, has been a major limiting factor.
The Spartans rank 70th in Passing Success Rate and played three players at quarterback against the Terrapins last week as interim head coach Harlon Barnett searched for a jolt on offense.
Noah Kim, who has started all four games, was benched in the fourth quarter after throwing two interceptions on the day. Kim’s 56.9% completion percentage is only better than Minnesota’s Athan Kaliakmanis in the Big Ten among players with at least 100 pass attempts.
Michigan State has also been mediocre running the ball, with Nate Carter leading the way. Carter’s 369 rushing yards rank fourth in the conference.
The Spartans' pass defense has been one of the worst in the country over the past two seasons, ranking second-to-last and last in the Big Ten, respectively, in 2021 and 2022. It remains their most vulnerable spot in 2023, but the Hawkeyes have virtually no passing attack to speak of.
Iowa Hawkeyes
There likely won’t be a worse offensive performance than what Iowa showed last week in Beaver Stadium — although I wouldn’t put it past the Hawkeyes to try and one-up themselves.
The Iowa offense went from bad to worse against Penn State, registering just 76 total yards and four first downs, while the Nittany Lion out-possessed Iowa by nearly 31 minutes.
The good news is Iowa’s offensive numbers can only improve. The Hawkeyes rank 125th and 112th in Passing and Rushing Success, respectively, but four of Iowa’s next five opponents are in the bottom five of the Big Ten in total defense.
Cade McNamara, who isn’t exactly swift of foot — especially with a quad injury that has seemingly lingered — has faced relentless pressure this season, with Iowa ranking 127th in Havoc Allowed. The team’s 25 tackles for loss allowed rank 82nd in the country.
Iowa fans are used to poor offensive play, but the defense usually does more than enough to win games. That hasn’t been the case in 2023.
Two typical areas of success — sacks and turnovers — have yet to aid the Iowa defense. Only Sam Houston has fewer sacks than Iowa does this season, and the Hawkeyes have produced just three turnovers through four games.
Michigan State vs Iowa
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan State and Iowa match up statistically:
Michigan State Offense vs. Iowa Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 54 | 64 | |
| Line Yards | 112 | 59 | |
| Pass Success | 70 | 33 | |
| Havoc | 103 | 125 | |
| Finishing Drives | 93 | 48 | |
| Quality Drives | 94 | 41 | |
Iowa Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 112 | 50 | |
| Line Yards | 121 | 35 | |
| Pass Success | 125 | 86 | |
| Havoc | 127 | 38 | |
| Finishing Drives | 99 | 43 | |
| Quality Drives | 123 | 57 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 79 | 20 |
| PFF Coverage | 115 | 12 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 30 | 25 |
| Middle 8 | 67 | 58 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.6 (42) | 29.5 (109) |
| Rush Rate | 48.5% (95) | 57.3% (42) |
Michigan State vs Iowa
Betting Pick & Prediction
After being embarrassed on the national stage at Penn State, Iowa is in dire need of a get-right game. Fortunately for the Hawkeyes, that's exactly what a matchup with Michigan State presents.
Michigan State’s offense has been far from impressive the last two weeks, and the quarterback position with Kim doesn't inspire confidence. Iowa’s defense will be the best the inexperienced starter has seen.
Kinnick Stadium under the lights is one of the best atmospheres in college football and should be a major boost to Iowa’s defense — and maybe even McNamara and the Hawkeye offense.
That said, a double-digit spread is a ton to lay with an offense as bad as Iowa's. Instead, I’ll back the strength of the Hawkeyes to channel the Kinnick energy and beat down a Michigan State offense that's reeling of late.
