Miami (OH) vs Toledo Prediction, Odds: Value on Underdog in MAC Title Game
Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Miami (OH)’s Joe Wilkins Jr.
Check out our Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Toledo Rockets prediction, along with updated odds for Saturday's MAC title game.
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs Toledo Rockets Odds
| Miami (OH) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +240 |
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
Unlike the other Group of Five conferences, the MAC plays its conference championship at a neutral site at Ford Field.
This season, Miami (OH) and Toledo travel to Detroit to fight for conference bragging rights.
The Rockets are seeking a second straight title and fifth overall, which would tie them with Northern Illinois and Marshall for the most of any program since the league held its first conference championship game in 1997.
Meanwhile, Miami (OH) hopes it will end the weekend tied with Toledo if the RedHawks can pull off the moderate upset to secure its fourth-ever MAC championship and first since 2019.
This will be a rematch of a regular-season meeting in October when the Rockets pulled out a 21-17 road victory in Oxford.
Will Toledo, which has won 11 straight games since opening the year with a close loss at Illinois, make it a clean sweep over Miami (OH) and defend its title? Or will the RedHawks exact revenge in the Motor City?
Let's take a closer look at each team before getting into what I like from a betting perspective.
Miami (OH) Offense
Coming into the season, the primary question surrounding the Miami offense was if it could find a new alpha receiver to replace the departed Mac Hippenhammer, who got a shot with the Bengals over the summer before getting waived.
Fortunately for the RedHawks, they found an adequate replacement in Southeast Louisiana transfer Gage Larvadain, who provided the explosive threat on the outside that the Miami offense relies heavily upon.
But it wasn't all smooth sailing for the offense, which could be without its best three players on Saturday.
Early in the season, the RedHawks lost stud tight end Jack Coldiron to a season-ending injury. Things worsened when star quarterback Brett Gabbert suffered that same fate in late October.
Just when you think things couldn't get any worse, Larvadain sustained a hamstring injury against Akron that kept him out of the final two regular-season games.
Head coach Chuck Martin stated that Larvadain is questionable to suit up on Saturday and is likely a game-time decision, so his status is worth monitoring.
After Gabbert suffered his season-ending injury, the RedHawks turned to backup quarterback Aveon Smith, who gained valuable experience in nine starts last season when Gabbert was hurt.
While Smith is much more mobile, he's nowhere near as polished of a passer as Gabbert. On the season, he's thrown for two touchdowns, two interceptions, a paltry 52.5% completion rate and 6.6 yards per attempt.
With Smith at the helm, the RedHawks utilize heavy RPO action with a top-25 rush rate. However, even with talent in the backfield, that approach hasn't been very efficient, as they rank in the bottom 10 nationally in Rush Success Rate.
As usual, the Miami offensive line possesses an abundance of size for a MAC school, but it struggles to generate a consistent push at the point of attack, ranking 85th nationally in Line Yards. Therefore, the RedHawks, who struggle in the interior, likely won't take advantage of a Toledo defensive front that ranks 94th in that metric.
The RedHawks occasionally mix downfield shots, attempting to connect on a few explosive passing plays per game. Unfortunately, that's become more difficult without Larvadain.
Overall, this is an inefficient rush-first offense that can't effectively move the ball on the ground.
Miami just wants to avoid mistakes when on offense with a plodding and methodical approach that grinds games to a halt while relying on its excellent defense and special teams to get the job done.
Miami (OH) Defense
So, how did Miami (OH) reach the MAC Championship Game with a shorthanded, extremely underwhelming offense?
The RedHawks rode the backs of their fantastic defense.
The RedHawks run a 4-2-5 base with plenty of man coverage on the outside and few pre-snap bells and whistles.
They're led by a pair of stud linebackers in former Indiana transfer Ty Wise and tackling machine Matt Salopek, who would get my vote for MAC Defensive Player of the Year. You will likely hear Salopek's name called countless times on Saturday, as the converted safety is seemingly everywhere on the field.
Austin Ertl and Kobe Hilton are experienced in the interior but lack size, so the RedHawks rank 93rd in Defensive Line Yards.
However, they still make enough plays to hold up against the run, while Caiden Woullard and Brian Ugwu can generate pressure off the edge.
Meanwhile, the secondary has no glaring weaknesses.
Yahsyn McKee has thrived at one cornerback spot, while Raion Strader has performed fine at the other. The safeties are incredibly stout, led by Jacquez Warren and former Michigan State transfer Michael Dowell. The group has improved even more since Eli Blakey began playing as the third safety over Silas Walters.
Opposing offenses can grind out small gains on the ground. Still, they're not going to hit big plays against a defense that ranks fifth-best nationally in explosiveness allowed, including the second-best mark in pass explosiveness allowed.
Per my end-of-regular-season rankings, Miami (OH) has the best defense in the Group of Five, and I have it ranked in the top 40 overall.
There are no exploitable holes in the highly experienced and disciplined stop unit, and the RedHawks boast no shortage of sure tacklers.
They force teams to move the ball down the field methodically without making any mistakes or suffering any negative plays, and they stand pat as well as any Group of Five defense in the red zone.
Toledo Offense
Led by dual-threat quarterback Dequan Finn, who guided the Rockets to a title on this field last year against Ohio, the Rockets feature a run-first, RPO-based offense that leans heavily on stud running back Peny Boone.
The former Maryland transfer has rushed for over 1,300 yards in 2023 with a whopping 7.4 yards-per-rush mark, ranking tops nationally among backs with at least 100 carries.
The offensive line has benefited from excellent health and continuity, with all five linemen starting every game this season. The unit has sometimes missed assignments in the run-blocking department, but that hasn't slowed down Boone, who can churn out explosive runs without much help against MAC competition.
The Rockets rank in the top 15 nationally in Offensive Line Yards, so they should get a decent push against the undersized Miami (OH) defensive line.
The line's left side is this group's strength, with guard Vinny Scuiry and tackle Nick Rosi. Center Devan Rogers can be a liability at times, while right guard Tyler Long hasn't been able to get back to his pre-injury form, and Rutgers transfer David Nwaogwugwu has been inconsistent at right tackle.
Toledo uses Boone's (and Finn's) legs to set up the pass with a decent, albeit not spectacular, wide receiver corps.
For my taste, Finn still puts the ball in harm's way a bit too often. During the regular season, he threw for 21 touchdowns to only eight interceptions. Still, he benefited from some good fortune, as he has just 17 big-time throws to 14 turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus.
That said, Toledo doesn't need or ask Finn to do too much through the air. He's usually in favorable third-down situations due to the success of the rushing attack, as Toledo ranks in the top 25 nationally in Standard Downs Success Rate.
It's worth noting that Toledo has faced a horrible schedule of opposing defenses outside of Miami (OH), which held the Rockets to just 21 points, even with a pair of Toledo touchdown drives aided by fourth-down conversions and Miami penalties.
Toledo Defense
Toledo boasts one of the nation's best defenses among Group of Five programs. Like Miami (OH), the Rockets run a 4-2-5 base without much disguise. They simply line up and suffocate opposing MAC offenses.
While solid, the front seven did take a step back from last year's group after losing three pro prospects in the offseason in defensive lineman Desjuan Johnson (drafted by the Rams), outside linebacker Jamal Hines and inside linebacker Dyontae Johnson (recently on the Giants roster).
As a result, the natural pass rush declined in production outside of Terrance Taylor, and the Rockets are a bit more vulnerable against the run, ranking 76h in Rush Success Rate Allowed.
While the front seven isn't as talented as the 2022 bunch, it still features Darius Alexander as a run clogger and former Penn State transfer Judge Culpepper, who can wreak Havoc as an interior pass rusher.
Toledo also has one of the league's top linebackers in former Ohio State transfer Dallas Gant, who mans the middle at an extremely high level. His running mate, Daniel Bolden, is serviceable but can be exploited in coverage.
Meanwhile, the secondary is nothing short of spectacular, led by Quinyon Mitchell, the best Group of Five cornerback in my eyes. The likely future NFL Draft pick can shut down either side of the field and man the slot when necessary.
Fellow cornerback Chris McDonald has abundant experience but is undoubtedly more attackable. RJ Delancy has also flashed in coverage.
The safety group is deep and good, with loads of versatility between Zachary Ford, Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren, Nate Bauer, and Maxen Hook, with the latter two now fully healthy after missing time due to injury.
Since getting back to full strength, this defensive backfield is essentially impenetrable against MAC offenses.
Overall, the Toledo defense has no glaring weaknesses, with seemingly unlimited experience and speed across the board and a superb safety group on the back end that flies to the ball while cleaning up everything when warranted.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami (OH) and Toledo match up statistically:
Miami (OH) Offense vs. Toledo Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 126 | 76 | |
| Line Yards | 85 | 94 | |
| Pass Success | 74 | 11 | |
| Havoc | 35 | 62 | |
| Finishing Drives | 53 | 25 | |
| Quality Drives | 59 | 27 |
Toledo Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 25 | 39 | |
| Line Yards | 10 | 93 | |
| Pass Success | 15 | 32 | |
| Havoc | 25 | 32 | |
| Finishing Drives | 8 | 22 | |
| Quality Drives | 65 | 15 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 15 | 10 |
| PFF Coverage | 28 | 8 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 7.6 | 7.1 |
| Middle 8 | 68 | 12 |
| Seconds per Play | 31.1 (130) | 26.0 (44) |
| Rush Rate | 61.0% (21) | 60.8% (10) |
Miami (OH) vs Toledo
Betting Pick & Prediction
I bet both the side and total in this game.
Let's start with the under, which I like to 44.
Even on a fast track, I don't expect many points between two lackluster rush-heavy offenses against two of the country's best Group of Five defenses.
Neither sure-tackling defense gives up many explosive plays, which is the ideal formula for any under in college football.
I don't see the inefficient Miami (OH) offense having much success against Toledo, even if Lavardain does suit up, as Mitchell can neutralize his threat downfield.
Plus, Miami has one of the slowest offenses in the country (130th in seconds per play), so the clock will be rapidly winding down when it has the ball, especially with the new clock rules.
Toledo may move the ball with Boone on the ground, but it must work extremely hard to produce consistent drives.
I expect plenty of punts. And even when these two get into scoring range, I expect more field goal attempts than touchdowns, considering both defenses rank in the top 25 nationally in Points per Opportunity allowed.
I also anticipate that both teams will play conservatively and rely on their outstanding defenses — similar to the MAC Championship last season when Toledo faced another team in Ohio with a stingy defense and backup quarterback. That game ended 17-7 with Toledo running the ball 46 times, rarely putting the ball in harm’s way through the air.
From a side perspective, I like Miami (OH) at anything over a touchdown.
While I don't see its offense generating much, the RedHawks can keep a lower-scoring game within one score. Plus, there's a reason the RedHawks were an ATS darling all season. They not only have a fantastic defense that keeps them in games, but they also have an advantage in the oft-forgotten factors.
The RedHawks rarely hurt themselves with turnovers and have the 11th-fewest penalty yards in the country.
They also have one of the nation's best special teams units that ranks in the top 10 in net punting and punt return yards. Near-automatic kicker Graham Nicholson has connected on all 23 field goal attempts this season, including a 9-of-9 mark from 40-plus.
In this matchup, Miami (OH) will have a significant edge over Toledo in all those phases.
I can see Finn throwing a key interception. The Rockets are much less disciplined, ranking outside the top 100 nationally in penalty yards.
Toledo also has an inferior special teams group that ranks outside the top 100 in net punting and punt return yards. Plus, the Rockets have a less reliable kicker.
For what it's worth, MAC underdogs have performed better than any other league in the conference championship with an impressive 12-5-1 (70.6%) ATS mark since 2005, per Action Labs.
Ultimately, I think Miami (OH) is once again undervalued in the market, so I happily took the touchdown in what I expect to turn into a grinder, with both defenses having the edge over each respective offense.
Pick: Miami (OH) +7.5 or Better · Under 44 or Better
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