LSU vs Georgia Odds
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -108 | 51.5 -115o / -105u | +660 |
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -112 | 51.5 -115o / -105u | -1050 |
LSU and Georgia meet in Atlanta, where the Bulldogs are big favorites to take home the SEC title.
LSU's slim College Football Playoff hopes ended last Saturday when the Tigers were blown out by Texas A&M. Jayden Daniels got knocked of the game, which left the Tigers in an impossible situation. Now, they have to refocus and try to beat Georgia to secure a Sugar Bowl berth.
Georgia has been on cruise control since beating Tennessee handily. The Bulldogs messed around with Georgia Tech for a half last weekend before winning, 37-14.
The Bulldogs are clearly the top team in the country and are a virtual lock for the College Football Playoff, regardless of what happens in this game.
LSU Tigers
Tigers Offense
With Daniels leading the way, LSU has been a mixed bag on the offensive side of the ball.
Daniels averages just 7.3 yards per attempt and owns a 79.0 PFF passing grade with only 12 big-time throws in 12 starts. The Tigers rank 23rd in Passing Success Rate but just 125th in passing explosiveness, as 62.3% of Daniels' pass attempts have gone less than 10 yards in the air.
However, the passing attack isn't the focus of the offense, as LSU has one of the best rushing attacks in the country. The Tigers possess a dynamic rushing attack with four different running backs averaging over 4.8 yards per carry.
However, the leading rusher has actually been Daniels, who has run the ball 174 times — 80 more times than anyone else on the team. With a PFF rushing grade of 83.2, he's gaining 4.7 yards per carry and averaging 4.41 yards after contact per attempt.
Daniels has been extremely effective running the ball, but he's now going up against a top-five rushing defense.
Jayden Daniels with another run
— Alex 👋 (@Dubs408) September 4, 2022
Tigers Defense
LSU has been pretty stout against the run even if that doesn't show up in the metrics. The Tigers rank 20th nationally in PFF's run defense grade against the 12th-most difficult schedule this season.
Even with that difficult schedule, LSU sits top 45 in Defensive Line Yards, Stuff Rate and Power Success Rate Allowed.
The Tigers' secondary has also been impressive, ranking 13th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 21st in EPA/Pass Allowed. However, the reason this unit owns a coverage ranking of 95th is that it has allowed one too many explosive plays in the passing game.
Stetson Bennett has a PFF passing grade over 92 on throws over 20 yards in the air, so that's a big concern for the Tigers in this matchup.
The LSU defense tends to keep opposing teams out of the end zone once they cross the 40-yard line. Opponents have entered LSU territory 61 times this season and are averaging only 3.31 points per opportunity, which ranks 27th in the country.
Georgia Bulldogs
Bulldogs Offense
Georgia ranks fourth in the nation in Success Rate but comes in at just 108th in explosiveness. With that being said, the Bulldogs are still averaging 6.9 yards per play.
Georgia has been running the ball well with its two main backs, Kenny McIntosh and Daijun Edwards, who are both averaging 5.3 yards per carry and have combined for 36 runs over 10 yards. They will likely be the main focus of this game because LSU has an excellent secondary.
Kenny McIntosh 45 yard run! pic.twitter.com/vYqk5gcOi1
— 𝗙𝗢𝗟𝗟𝗢𝗪 @𝗙𝗧𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗱𝟳 (@FTBeard7) November 26, 2022
Bennett has the Bulldogs at No. 1 in the country in Passing Success Rate. One of the reasons he has been so good is because of his offensive line.
The senior signal-caller has been pressured on just 17.9% of his dropbacks, the second-lowest mark in college football. Georgia is sixth in terms of a pass-blocking grade and third in Havoc Allowed, but LSU does have a top-25 pass-rushing grade.
When Bennett has a clean pocket, he's averaging 9.1 yards per attempt and has a 86.1 PFF passing grade. When he's under pressure, his yards per attempt number drops to 6.0 while his PFF passing grade drops to 57.9.
So, it's crucial that Georgia keeps a clean pocket for Bennett, especially against a top-20 secondary.
Bulldogs Defense
Georgia once again has arguably the best defense in the country. The Bulldogs are allowing just 4.5 yards per play while ranking fourth in Success Rate Allowed and second in Finishing Drives Allowed.
Georgia's front seven gives up only 3.1 yards per carry. It also sits fifth in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, and fourth in both EPA/Rush Allowed and Defensive Line Yards.
It doesn't get any easier trying to throw the ball against Georgia. The Bulldogs allow only 5.8 yards per attempt and rank third in Passing Success Rate Allowed and second in EPA/Pass Allowed. It could be a long day for Daniels.
LSU vs Georgia Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how LSU and Georgia match up statistically:
LSU Offense vs Georgia Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 4 | 5 |  |
| Line Yards | 2 | 4 | |
| Pass Success | 23 | 3 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 67 | 76 | |
| Havoc | 51 | 58 | |
| Finishing Drives | 16 | 2 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off) vs Pass Rush (Def) | |||
Georgia Offense vs LSU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 7 | 68 | |
| Line Yards | 18 | 44 | |
| Pass Success | 1 | 13 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 6 | 24 | |
| Havoc | 3 | 78 | |
| Finishing Drives | 11 | 27 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off) vs Pass Rush (Def) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 78 | 11 |
| PFF Coverage | 95 | 17 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 82 | 3 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.6 (70) | 28.7 (107) |
| Rush Rate | 54.4% (66) | 52.5% (77) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics
LSU vs Georgia Betting Pick
These two offenses play at a pretty slow pace with LSU running a play every 26.6 seconds. Georgia is even slower at 28.7 seconds per play.
Also, the biggest advantage for both of these offenses comes on the ground. Running the ball early and often means the clock is going to keep moving.
Georgia's game against Tennessee earlier this season is a perfect example of how the Bulldogs can simply kill a game with their slow-paced offense and rushing attack once they get out to a lead.
I only have 43.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on the under.
Pick: Under 51.5 |
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