NCAAF Odds, Picks & Prediction for Louisiana vs UAB

We head to Birmingham, Alabama, on Saturday night as the UAB Blazers take on the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns.

I've covered UAB twice already this season, and I've faded the Blazers both times.

I think this is a very intriguing matchup to analyze, and it's tempting to fade the Blazers again. But don't jump to conclusions just yet.

Let's break down this matchup and find the best betting angle and pick for Lousiana vs. UAB.

The Ragin' Cajuns lost a shocker last week at Old Dominion. Their offense put up more yards, but the defense allowed seven yards per play.

I think the Ragin' Cajuns' offensive success will continue in this game. They rank 14th in Rushing Success Rate and 29th in Offensive Line Yards, which is especially relevant considering the Blazers have been abysmal against the run.

If they can establish the run early, I think quarterback Ben Wooldridge will be able to attack the Blazers' secondary with play-action. Wooldridge has had a nice start to the season, throwing for five touchdowns and just one interception.

However, I'd like to see him be a bit more accurate in this matchup, as he's completing a measly 58% of his passes.

On the other side of the ball, ULL's defense is going up against a Blazers team that's No. 1 in Passing Success Rate and among the top 30 in Line Yards and Rushing Success Rate.

I sense the Ragin' Cajuns' game plan will be to burn a ton of clock on long, methodical drives. I doubt they'll want to leave their defense on the field for too long, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of clock-draining possessions.

Trent Dilfer reminds me of a guy who goes to an Applebee's happy hour to reminisce about his old playing days. The poor bartender has to hear the same stories and look at the same stupid Super Bowl ring over and over. But in the back of his mind, that bartender knows Dilfer was carried more than a basketball in an NBA game.

Sorry, Blazers fans — I can't help myself.

This UAB offense should have success for the third straight week. Quarterback Jacob Zeno has impressed this season with excellent performances through the air while also contributing to the ground game.

The Blazers actually outgained Georgia Southern last week and racked up 477 yards of offense. However, some of Dilfer's early-game decisions didn't do the Blazers defense any favors.

The Blazers defense will have its hands full against the ULL offense.

Louisiana is probably going to pound the rock, and I just don't see how the Blazers will get stops. The key for UAB will be causing some early chaos with turnovers, which is entirely possible since Wooldridge has been inaccurate.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Louisiana and UAB match up statistically:

Louisiana Offense vs. UAB Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	14	113
Line Yards	29	108
Pass Success	54	67
Havoc	53	64
Finishing Drives	62	67
Quality Drives	69	118

UAB Offense vs. Louisiana Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	30	81
Line Yards	27	105
Pass Success	1	24
Havoc	116	81
Finishing Drives	30	92
Quality Drives	43	77

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	40	120
PFF Coverage	45	109
Special Teams SP+	80	126
Middle 8	89	43
Seconds per Play	27.3 (71)	24.5 (32)
Rush Rate	52.1% (62)	41.3% (112)

I know what you're thinking, but I'm not going to fade the Blazers this week. I think the best approach is to hold our noses and take an under.

It's always scary taking an under with two poor defensive units, but I think the game script will play in our favor. Louisiana should dominate on the ground, and although the Blazers like to play fast, I think the running clock will make a difference.

Of course, if I see Louisiana +3 pop up before kickoff, I'll be back on the fade train against UAB. But for now, let's take the under.