Jacksonville State vs FIU Odds, Picks: Bet the Gamecocks?

Let’s have ourselves a Wednesday night Conference USA bash. The Jacksonville State Gamecocks head south to Miami to face the FIU Panthers in this midweek college football matchup.

Jacksonville State has struggled to find its identity over the last two weeks. The Gamecocks took a loss to first-place Liberty and then just snuck past Western Kentucky.

Perhaps a game against an inconsistent FIU team will help them get back on track.

Similarly, FIU finds itself in the midst of some struggles. The Panthers came out with a double-overtime win over Sam Houston last week but lost three in a row prior to that. They haven't fared well in conference play, though, only going 1-4 this season.

Where does the betting value lie in this matchup? Let's find a Jacksonville State vs. FIU prediction in this college football betting preview for Wednesday, Oct. 25.

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Despite the in-season success the Gamecocks are having, there’s a whole lot of uncertainty at quarterback. Both Zion Webb and Logan Smothers have split starts, and head coach Rich Rodriguez is pretty unsatisfied with them both.

Last week, Webb took the majority of the snaps and pulled off a win, but the whole season has been a carousel.

It’s certainly shown in the numbers as well, as the Gamecocks are a lower-tiered passing team. They significantly lack explosiveness and rank 103rd in Passing Success Rate.

Perry Carter has been the most efficient and explosive receiver regardless of who's under center. Carter has registered two touchdowns and averages nearly 17 yards per catch.

This team finds most of its success and volume on the ground, as it ranks 12th in rush rate and 36th in Rushing Success Rate.

Both Webb and Smothers are the second- and third-leading rushers, respectively, but a lot of it relies on Malik Jackson. The redshirt senior is having himself a really solid season, averaging 5.5 yards per carry while finding the end zone four times.

Rodriguez has also run out Anwar Lewis a lot more. Lewis was sidelined all offseason and missed the first two weeks with a lower-body injury. Every week since his return, he’s become progressively more involved in this offense, and I expect that to continue tonight.

The most successful thing about this Gamecocks team is its defense in every facet. While the secondary is more prone to give up an explosive play, it's still pretty stout, ranking ninth in Passing Down Success Rate and 19th in PPA.

Jax State is even better at stopping the run, ranking third in the nation in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and sixth in PPA.

Defensive lineman Chris Hardie is a monster, leading the team with nine tackles for loss, and linebacker Quae Drake leads the unit in total tackles. Both cause a ton of Havoc for opposing rushers.

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After a hot start to the season, it looks like FIU has come back down to earth. The Panthers have a pretty weak offense, but the defense has held strong for the most part.

Freshman Keyone Jenkins has been the head honcho behind center and has done well for a first-year starter.

While he’s been pretty accurate for the most part, completing nearly 60% of his passes, he needs to be better at his reads. He has more interceptions (seven) than touchdowns (six), which is why FIU's offense is among the worst in the nation (126th in Success Rate, 114th in PPA).

Jenkins and Kris Mitchell have formed really solid chemistry, though. Mitchell has hauled in more than 30% of the targets and averages 16.5 yards per carry. He’s the only real explosive receiver Jenkins has but manages to find himself open quite frequently.

With a freshman quarterback, the run game has been most proficient for the Panthers. They’re extremely capable of making an explosive play but struggle with inefficiency, placing 69th in Success Rate.

Shomari Lawrence and Kejon Owens have formed a solid committee, each rushing for 5.5 and 6.2 yards per carry, respectively. Most of FIU’s touchdowns have come on the ground as well.

While Lawrence and Owens have been huge parts of the ground attack, Jenkins has found himself scrambling a ton due to his poor offensive line, which has allowed him to find the end zone five times.

For what it is, FIU's defense has done a solid job at defending the pass. The Panthers rank 41st in Defensive Passing Success Rate and 40th in PPA.

Defensive back CJ Christian has created a ton of problems for opposing quarterbacks with three interceptions while also ranking fifth on the team in total tackles.

The Panthers' run defense is OK for the most part, but it's nothing flashy and has some issues in efficiency. Linebackers Donovan Manuel and Reggie Peterson lead the team in tackles, while Manuel paces the unit with 12 TFLs.

From the jump, it’s clear that Jax State holds the advantage here.

The Gamecocks have a powerful run game, but their defense is what makes them stand out. I think they can have their way with a team that has trouble creating for itself with a freshman quarterback.

While I’m very wary of the QB situation in Jacksonville, I can’t imagine that Webb or Smothers would have an issue with the Panthers.

FIU has had such a hard time in conference play. It’s 1-4 against conference opponents and would've moved to 0-5 if it weren't for an overtime victory over a winless Sam Houston team.

I think Jenkins is a fine signal-caller, and I really love the chemistry he’s formed with Mitchell. However, given how Jenkins has struggled with reads, I imagine the Gamecocks — who rank top-50 in Havoc — will take advantage of his mistakes.

Lastly, FIU’s run game is solid, but with its lack of efficiency, I don’t see it breaking Jax State’s dominant run-stoppers.

This line sits at Jacksonville State -7.5 as of writing, and I think the Gamecocks cover. They’ve covered in 71% of their games, and I don’t see this being an exception.