The Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4) play the Maryland Terrapins (4-6) on Saturday, Nov. 23, at SECU Stadium in College Park, Maryland. The game kicks off at 12 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on Big Ten Network.
The Terps have lost 4 of their past 5 games, while Iowa has won 3 of its past 5.
Iowa is a 6.5-point favorite on the spread with a 45-point over/under. The Hawkeyes are laying -230 on the moneyline, while the Terps are +190.
Read on for my Iowa vs Maryland predictions and college football picks for this NCAAF Week 13 matchup.
Iowa vs Maryland Prediction, Pick
- Iowa vs. Maryland Pick: Maryland +6.5
My Iowa vs. Maryland best bet is on the Terps to cover as home 'dogs, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Iowa vs Maryland Odds
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 45 -110 / -110 | -230 |
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 45 -110 / -110 | +190 |
- Iowa vs Maryland Point Spread: Iowa -6.5 (-110) · Maryland +6.5 (-110)
- Iowa vs Maryland Total: Over/Under 45
- Iowa vs Maryland Moneyline: Iowa -230 · Maryland +190
Iowa vs Maryland Preview
Maryland is a tough team to crack, but I've fortunately had success this season knowing when to back the Terps, which is surprising since they've owned me in the past.
They have a talented group of skill-position players, including running back Roman Hemby and the dynamic wide receiver duo of Tai Felton and Kaden Prather.
However, the offensive output has been extremely inconsistent on a week-to-week basis in large part due to one of the worst offensive lines at the P4 level with a particularly horrid state at left tackle.
Head coach Mike Locksley also took over play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Josh Gattis, but it hasn't led to any noticeable improvement in efficiency.
I'm not a fan of Gattis, but I'd argue things have gotten worse, especially when you look at the production of quarterback Billy Edwards, who is coming off his three worst games of the season with only one Big-Time Throw to four Turnover-Worthy Plays after accumulating a 21:7 ratio over the first half of the season, per PFF.
With that said, I'm not overreacting to that small sample size, which included some very good secondaries. I've generally liked what I've seen from Edwards this season. Plus, this Iowa defense is not the same caliber we're used to seeing under Phil Parker.
Yes, the Hawkeyes are still very good defensively, but they just aren't the nationally elite group we've become accustomed to. The defensive line isn't great, and they're allowing more explosive plays than usual. In fact, they've allowed more through 10 games than they did in 14 last year.
Despite all of the returning experience, they just haven't been able to adequately replace Logan Lee, Joe Evans and Cooper DeJean — all three of whom now sit on NFL rosters.
The Iowa defense has also been particularly leaky on the road, even allowing the anemic UCLA rushing attack to gash it in its most recent game.
Iowa vs Maryland
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Iowa and Maryland match up statistically:
Iowa Offense vs. Maryland Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 54 | 48 | |
| Line Yards | 61 | 19 | |
| Pass Success | 93 | 111 | |
| Havoc | 62 | 99 | |
| Finishing Drives | 73 | 114 | |
| Quality Drives | 78 | 87 | |
Maryland Offense vs. Iowa Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 109 | 88 | |
| Line Yards | 101 | 81 | |
| Pass Success | 60 | 45 | |
| Havoc | 38 | 67 | |
| Finishing Drives | 96 | 22 | |
| Quality Drives | 57 | 13 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 28 | 68 |
| PFF Coverage | 6 | 112 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 20 | 79 |
| Middle 8 | 44 | 72 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.8 (120) | 24.9 (26) |
| Rush Rate | 64% (9) | 43% (124) |
Iowa vs Maryland Pick & Prediction
With all of that said, this is more about making this Iowa offense beat me on the road by more than a touchdown.
The Maryland secondary is horrid, and it continues to shuffle guys in and out of the lineup on the back end, but that won't really hurt it here against Iowa's paltry passing attack.
In order to slow down Iowa's offense, you have to contain running back Kaleb Johnson, who's essentially Iowa's entire offense.
Well, Maryland's biggest strength by a country mile on defense is slowing down opposing ground games, ranking in the top 25 nationally in EPA per Rush.
The Terps do a particularly stellar job limiting rush explosives, which is key against Johnson. And while they allow far too many pass explosives, that element of Iowa's offense is almost nonexistent.
Plus, we don't even know who will suit up under center for Iowa. Brendan Sullivan had recently taken over Cade McNamara, which I actually thought was a slight upgrade, but he's now lost for the season with an injury.
Additionally, McNamara is also dealing with an injury, which could mean a first career start for Jackson Stratton, who was recently practicing as a scout team linebacker.
And while I don't think too highly of McNamara, that would obviously be a clear downgrade for the walk-on who transferred in over the summer from Colorado State, where he went 4-of-17 for 78 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in limited action. Just ask yourself why Iowa moved him to linebacker in the first place.
For what it's worth, head coach Kirk Ferentz said the status of McNamara — who is listed as QB1 on the depth chart — for Saturday is "cloudy," and he wouldn't have started if the game were played earlier this week.
It's not the best scheduling spot with Iowa coming off of a bye, but I trust Maryland will try to keep its bowl hopes alive in its home finale after an embarrassing home loss against Rutgers.
I project Maryland closer to a four-point dog than a seven-point one. Give me the Terps and the points.
Pick: Maryland +6.5 (-110, bet365) | Play to +6 (-110)
Iowa vs Maryland Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | SECU Stadium, College Park, MD |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 23 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Big Ten Network |
Iowa vs Maryland will be played at SECU Stadium in College Park, Maryland, on Saturday, Nov. 23 at 12 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on Big Ten Network.
