Michigan vs Indiana Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-33.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -10000 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+33.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +2000 |
Entering this season, everyone knew No. 2 Michigan didn't have the most challenging schedule. As expected, the Wolverines have dominated so far, scoring over 30 points in every game and winning by at least 24 in each matchup.
However, there were murmurs after they didn't cover in their first three games.
Since then, Michigan is 2-0-1 against the spread in its last three games, outscoring Nebraska and Minnesota by a combined score of 97-17 over its last two games.
This week, Michigan may not have much of a challenge again when it welcomes the Indiana Hoosiers to the Big House.
Indiana is 2-3 overall and 0-2 in Big Ten play, falling 44-17 at Maryland last week. It hasn't won at Michigan since 1967 and has lost 26 of the last 27 meetings overall.
Find a betting pick, preview and prediction for Michigan vs. Indiana below.
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan's offense won't win many beauty pageants because it's 132nd in seconds per play. As a result, some may be sleeping on the level that quarterback J.J. McCarthy is playing at.
The junior is leading the country in QBR and ranks third in completion percentage and completion percentage under pressure. Beyond the numbers, McCarthy's ability to fit the ball accurately into tight windows is a big reason why Michigan ranks fourth nationally in third-down percentage.
Michigan leads the country in Net Points Per Drive. It ranks third in Passing Success Rate and 21st in Rushing Success Rate. That's despite seemingly load-managing running back Blake Corum, and the other half of its star duo — Donovan Edwards — has yet to fully get on track this season.
Corum has scored a rushing touchdown in every game and leads the country with 10 touchdowns. A third back — Kalel Mullings — has emerged of late with three solid outings and is the bruiser to complement the more dynamic Corum and Edwards.
At wide receiver, Roman Wilson has proven more than deserving of Michigan's No. 1 jersey. The senior is tied for third in the FBS with eight touchdown catches. Per Pro Football Focus, Wilson is the country's highest-graded receiver against single coverage this season.
To my eye, Michigan's offensive line hasn't been at the level — particularly in the running game — that it's reached the last two years when it won the Joe Moore Award. However, it's still first nationally in Havoc Allowed and McCarthy has been sacked just three times.
Last week, Michigan's defense couldn't begin the game any better, as cornerback Will Johnson picked off a pass and returned it for a touchdown on Minnesota's first offensive snap.
Michigan slowly worked Johnson back into the lineup this season, but he's as elite as any corner in the country at full strength. He leads a secondary that ranks sixth in Passing Success Rate and is 19th in PFF's Coverage grade.
Coastal Carolina transfer Josaiah Stewart leads the team with three sacks, all in the last two weeks. He ranks eighth nationally in PFF's Pass Rushing grade among edge defenders. Derrick Moore (two sacks), Braiden McGregor and Jaylen Harrell round out a deep edge group for Michigan.
Michigan's run defense has set itself apart this season and at times has been simply impenetrable, as it ranks eighth nationally in Rushing Success Rate. Jenkins, Graham and Rayshaun Benny rank in the top eight nationally in PFF's Run Stop Rate among qualified defensive tackles.
Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana comes into this game off of a bye and will look to awaken a struggling offense. In three games against Power Five opponents, the Indiana offense is averaging just 11.3 points per game.
It's been rotating two freshman quarterbacks — Tayven Jackson and Brendan Sorsby — but is a respectable 55th in Passing Success Rate.
Jackson has a higher completion percentage but has thrown the team's only three interceptions.
For Indiana to remain competitive in this game, it must protect the football. However, Michigan has forced seven turnovers in its past four games, with six being interceptions.
It doesn't help matters that Indiana will likely be one-dimensional. The Hoosiers have been dreadful running the football, ranking 129th in Rushing Success Rate. Indiana will have to deal with Michigan's deep group on the interior of the defensive line, led by Kris Jenkins and Mason Graham.
Indiana's offense is at its best when it gets the ball in the hands of receiver Cam Camper. He's starting to round into form after last year's season-ending injury, and he posted a season-high 103 receiving yards against Akron.
Indiana's defense is 56th in Finishing Drives and held the high-powered Ohio State offense to only 23 points in the season opener. However, the Hoosiers' defense is outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate, Line Yards and Passing Explosiveness.
Michigan's balanced offensive attack will pose significant problems for the Hoosiers.
Michigan vs Indiana
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Indiana and Michigan match up statistically:
Indiana Offense vs Michigan Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 129 | 8 | |
| Line Yards | 83 | 5 | |
| Pass Success | 55 | 6 | |
| Havoc | 66 | 10 | |
| Finishing Drives | 107 | 1 | |
| Quality Drives | 74 | 1 | |
Michigan Offense vs Indiana Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 21 | 112 | |
| Line Yards | 17 | 111 | |
| Pass Success | 3 | 92 | |
| Havoc | 1 | 67 | |
| Finishing Drives | 26 | 56 | |
| Quality Drives | 7 | 70 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 38 | 6 |
| PFF Coverage | 54 | 19 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 54 | 7 |
| Middle 8 | 123 | 21 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.9 (102) | 32.1 (132) |
| Rush Rate | 52.1% (73) | 61.2% (13) |
Michigan vs Indiana
Betting Prediction Pick
Winning by 38 and 42 points the last two weeks, Michigan has easily covered despite being favored by more than 17 points in both games. While Michigan very well may cover again this week, there's more value on the first-half line, particularly on FanDuel.
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Michigan has outscored its opponents 124-23 in the first half this season and led by 18 points or more at halftime in three of its first six games. It's also a Minnesota touchdown with six seconds left in the half from that number being four.
Maryland's offense was like a hot knife through butter against Indiana's defense, scoring in two plays on its opening drive. Michigan may not score that quickly, but its combination of big-play ability and methodical drives should produce explosive plays early and often against Indiana.
Additionally, Michigan has allowed just three touchdowns in the first half this season, so don't expect an offensive outburst from a struggling Indiana unit.
Michigan is -17.5 at -134 odds on FanDuel to cover the first half but -20.5 at -120 on DraftKings. While I expect Michigan to be leading by 21 at the half, these odds aren't reflective enough of a three-point difference.
Therefore, I will be taking the FanDuel line here, as a 21-3 halftime lead will cash this bet.
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