NCAAF Odds, Prediction for Houston vs Kansas State
Peter Aiken/Getty Images. Pictured: Kansas State quarterback Will Howard.
Houston vs Kansas State Odds
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +600 |
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -900 |
Kansas State looks for their third straight win when they host Houston in Manhattan.
The Wildcats are live to repeat as Big 12 champions.
Their lone loss came to Oklahoma State on the road, and they have a huge game next week against Texas. They don't play Oklahoma this year, meaning if they win out, there's a good chance they'll be back in the Big 12 Championship game.
Houston fell to 3-4 on the season after a valiant effort against Texas, losing 31-24.
With five games left, Dana Holgorsen's team is becoming desperate following three losses in their first four Big 12 games. Pulling off an upset in Manhattan would be massive for their chances at making a bowl game.
Where does the value lie in this Big 12 battle? Let's look at the odds and make a Houston vs. Kansas State prediction and pick in this college football betting preview for Saturday, Oct. 28.
Donovan Smith has improved as the season has progressed. He played his best game of the year against Texas, amassing 378 yards, three touchdowns, and five big-time throws. That performance put Smith inside the top 50 FBS quarterbacks by EPA per Play.
Smith's intermediate passing has spearheaded this improvement. He's been efficient throwing the ball between 10-19 yards, putting up a 90.9 Pro Football Focus passing grade, the 12th-best mark among college quarterbacks.
Image via PFF.
The only way Houston wins this game is by throwing the ball, as that's where Kansas State is weakest defensively.
Plus, the Cougars can't run the ball to save their lives. Holgorsen uses a three-back committee, but the Cougars are averaging only 3.7 yards per carry, ranking 99th nationally in Rush Success Rate and 118th in EPA per Rush.
Houston's defense has been torched this season. The Cougars are allowing 5.8 yards per play and rank 116th nationally in EPA per Play Allowed.
They're struggling to stop both the run and the pass, but the rush defense worries me more against Kansas State.
K-State is rushing the ball often and efficiently, and the Cougars rank 89th nationally in Rushing Success Rate and 117th in EPA per Rush allowed.
Kansas State's ground-and-pound rushing attack looks good, with the Wildcats averaging 5.6 yards per carry and ranking eighth nationally in EPA per Rush.
It's important to note that while the Wildcats are viewed as a slower-paced team because of their rush-heavy attack, they've been playing faster this year. In 2022, they ran a play every 27 seconds, but they've cut that number to 26 this year, a top-60 pace nationally.
One second per play doesn't sound like much, but it's resulted in K-State running five more plays per game this season (75) than last (70).
It's worked for the offense, as running back DJ Giddens and quarterback Will Howard are both averaging over six yards per carry with a combined 32 10-plus yard rushes.
Add in freshman quarterback Avery Johnson, who has run for 163 yards and five touchdowns over the past two games, and they should run all over a Houston front seven that's one of the worst in the Power Five.
Kansas State is also one of the most efficient scoring teams when it gets into the opponent's territory, averaging 4.94 points per scoring opportunity, the nation's eighth-best mark.
The K-State defense is overwhelming at the point of attack. The Wildcats' defensive line ranks second nationally in Stuff Rate and seventh in defensive Line Yards.
They'll be able to shut down Houston's rush attack. But I still have questions about the secondary.
The Wildcats have faced three backup quarterbacks in their last four games and are still 56th nationally in Passing Success Rate allowed, 75th in Passing Exposiveness Allowed, and 60th in PFF's coverage grades.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Houston and Kansas State match up statistically:
Houston Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 99 | 14 | |
| Line Yards | 100 | 7 | |
| Pass Success | 51 | 56 | |
| Havoc | 40 | 27 | |
| Finishing Drives | 96 | 22 | |
| Quality Drives | 64 | 39 |
Kansas State Offense vs. Houston Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 19 | 89 | |
| Line Yards | 20 | 82 | |
| Pass Success | 38 | 116 | |
| Havoc | 13 | 86 | |
| Finishing Drives | 8 | 119 | |
| Quality Drives | 43 | 101 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 114 | 115 |
| PFF Coverage | 112 | 60 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 89 | 43 |
| Middle 8 | 27 | 117 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.3 (38) | 26.3 (57) |
| Rush Rate | 44.9% (123) | 56.6% (31) |
Houston vs Kansas State
Betting Pick & Prediction
The pace of this game should be pretty fast, with both of these teams inside the top 60 in seconds per play.
The key for Houston is Smith. Can he throw on Kansas State's average secondary? He's steadily improved over his past four games.
But the weather could be an issue. The forecast calls for 11-to-13 mph winds during the game, with temperatures in the 40s and a slight chance of rain. It's not exactly ideal aerial attack weather.
Meanwhile, I don't know how Houston stops K-State's rushing attack. Jonathan Brooks racked up almost 100 yards against the Cougars, and Texas' rushing attack isn't even in the top 30 nationally in EPA per Rush.
Kansas State's deadly rushing attack and Howard's dual-threat ability will be too much for the Cougars' front seven.
With the weather not in Houston's favor, Kansas State's ground attack should take over this game. I smell a blowout.
I have Kansas State projected at -22.1, so I like the value on the Wildcats at -17.5.
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