Georgia Bulldogs vs. Ole Miss Rebels Odds
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 59 -110o / -110u | -520 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 59 -110o / -110u | +390 |
By Pete Ruden
In this day and age, there are three guarantees in life: death, taxes and the Georgia Bulldogs being undefeated heading into Week 11 of the college football season.
The two-time defending national champions haven't lost a regular-season game since Nov. 7, 2020 — a 44-28 defeat at the hands of the Florida Gators in the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.
Back then, we were just getting used to seeing actual people again and got amped when the likes of Central Arkansas and Austin Peay graced our screens for a college football game. Oh, and Stetson Bennett was only 23. So, yeah — it was a while ago.
Entering the season, many pundits thought we'd see more of the same. Blessed with an easy schedule and a level of talent that would almost make the Kansas City Chiefs jealous, the Bulldogs could seemingly sleepwalk their way to the SEC Championship.
Then, the complacency started to kick in.
Georgia fell victim to slow starts once SEC play got underway, as it trailed South Carolina, 14-3, at halftime in Athens and was losing, 17-10, on the road against Auburn. But both times, the Dawgs stormed back and won by at least a touchdown.
Now, coming off their toughest victory of the season — a 30-21 win over then-No. 12 Missouri — Georgia welcomes a top-10 foe in Lane Kiffin and the Ole Miss Rebels.
The Rebels have relied on their close-game clutch gene often this season. In the past five weeks, they've won four one-possession games, including victories over Texas A&M, Auburn, Arkansas and LSU.
Luckily for "Joey Freshwater" and Co., the 55-49 win over top-15 LSU on Sept. 30 was exactly when star running back Quinshon Judkins started stepping up. After failing to run for more than 60 yards in any of his first four games, Judkins has rushed for over 100 yards in four of his last five while scoring nine total touchdowns in the process.
His Undertaker-like re-emergence this season will be one of the most entertaining things to watch against a Georgia defense that has taken a small step back compared to the level of its defenses in 2022 and 2021.
We surveyed our staff to find out where they see betting value on Saturday's top-10 matchup. So, let's dive into our staff's spread and total picks, along with other ways we're betting Georgia vs. Ole Miss.
Georgia vs. Ole Miss Spread
Ole Miss +10.5
Our staff is strongly convinced about taking the points in this SEC showdown with conference championship and College Football Playoff implications on the line.
Ole Miss has been off to a strong start this season, boasting only one loss as it enters this must-win game on the road in Sanford Stadium. Outside of a stumble against Alabama, Ole Miss has been a resilient team this season, particularly against the spread, going 6-2-1 for a 75% cover rate.
Ole Miss will be in for its toughest test of the season against Georgia and will look to its venerable offense to keep this game close. In particular, Ole Miss will look to its run-heavy packages as a situational edge.
The Rebels run the ball on 57.2% of plays and will surely look to the ground game as an antidote to the excellent Bulldog secondary.
The Ole Miss run offense ranks fourth in the nation, per PFF, and will be presented with a favorable matchup against the 32nd-ranked Bulldog rushing defense.
While the Rebels haven’t been as reliant on the aerial attack this season, they're still a highly effective passing team, ranking 14th in the nation in passing offense with an average of 297.7 aerial yards per game.
Coverage has been a strength for Georgia, but its pass rush has been average with just 2.2 sacks per game. This should allow Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart plenty of additional time to make his reads.
We expect the Rebels to do enough on offense to keep this game close and view the hook as an important number in this matchup for the very balanced Ole Miss offense. Season to date, Ole Miss has played the sixth-toughest schedule in the nation, per Massey Ratings, and will be able to lean on their experience to keep this game close.
The Action Network PRO Model projects the spread for this game at Georgia -8.6. This represents a 3.1% edge compared to the market at the time of writing.
We recommend taking the points in this SEC showdown with a preference for 10 and the hook with a limit at 10.
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Georgia vs. Ole Miss Over/Under
Over 58.5 | 6 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 58.5 | 4 Picks |
Over 58.5
Our staff is pretty split for this Georgia vs. Ole Miss total, but we lean toward the over.
Georgia’s elite defense has stolen the show in recent years, but the offense has taken that role this season, ranking seventh in EPA per Play and 10th in Success Rate.
Bulldogs quarterback Carson Beck sits eighth nationally among qualified FBS passers in total EPA after recording four 300-yard games over the past six weeks, with a 13:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The injury to Brock Bowers could've been a major red flag, but instead, Ladd McConkey has stepped up to become the Dawgs’ go-to pass-catcher. He's averaging over 17 yards per reception since Bowers got hurt.
This unit should exploit an Ole Miss secondary that ranks 69th in Passing Explosiveness Allowed.
I also love this matchup for Beck.
The Rebels have run a lot of Cover 3 and Cover 4 under first-year defensive coordinator Paul Golding. Among qualified FBS passers facing those looks, Beck has the second-most passing yards (1,525) and fifth-best EPA (46.3).
However, the Bulldogs defense has taken a step back with tackling being the biggest issue. Georgia ranks 10th in the SEC in broken plus missed tackle rate (11.8%), along with a mark of seventh in EPA per Rush Allowed.
Meanwhile, Ole Miss running back Quinshon Judkins has been one of the nation’s most elusive rushers. Among qualified backs, he’s 10th nationally in missed tackles forced and 15th in yards after contact. No SEC running back with at least 75 carries has a higher broken plus missed tackle rate than Judkins at 28.8%.
A leaky Georgia front seven won't stop that.
If Judkins establishes the rush, that’ll set up Kiffin's ever-dangerous play-action passing attack. Among qualified FBS passers, Dart has the second-most play-action passing yards (1,403) and sixth-most big-time throws (10).
Put it all together, and we should see fireworks on Saturday afternoon in this top-10 showdown.
More Ways to Bet Georgia vs. Ole Miss
Ole Miss 1H +6.5
Play to +6
By Brett Pund
If you've been following Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss, he has done an exceptional job at putting together solid game plans in the opening halves of games.
Over the last three seasons, the Rebels would have covered this same first-half spread in 20-of-23 SEC contests. This includes holding a lead at the break against Alabama in the last two meetings and against LSU this year.
Meanwhile, we've seen Georgia start slow multiple times throughout the year. The Bulldogs were losing at halftime against South Carolina at home were tied after the opening two quarters against Auburn and Missouri.
Besides the first-half result, I think there are other positives the Rebels can take out of the Bulldogs' game last week.
Missouri racked up 151 rushing yards against this Georgia defense, which is an area where Auburn finished with 219 yards on the ground as well.
Whether it’s Jaxson Dart or Quinshon Judkins, I expect Kiffin to establish the run game early against Georgia. This is a unit that has averaged 181.8 rushing yards per game over the last four weeks.
I’m not sure if the Rebels can do enough for the full game, but I do like them to keep it close in the first half.
