Friday College Football Odds, Predictions: Our Bets for Kansas State vs Oklahoma State, Nebraska vs Illinois
Design by Cyriel Klitsie/Action Network.
- Friday's college football slate features two games: Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State and Nebraska vs. Illinois
- Our Cody Goggin broke down both games and provided a betting pick for each.
- Check out both betting previews and picks for Friday's college football games below.
Friday. Night. Lights.
There's something special about football being played on the gridiron under the lights, and we have two instances of that tomorrow.
Friday's college football slate features two Power 5 matchups under the lights: Illinois vs. Nebraska and Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State. Those Big Ten and Big 12 battles will make for a couple of solid appetizers for Saturday's main course.
Action Network contributor Cody Goggin broke down both games on Friday night's NCAAF slate, so read on for his full betting previews and picks. And be sure to check back tomorrow because we'll have plenty more college football betting coverage.
Friday College Football Betting Previews
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Friday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7:30 p.m. | ||
| 8 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State
By Cody Goggin
Kansas State and Oklahoma State face off Friday night in what should be a fun Big 12 matchup.
These teams each prefer to play at a fast pace and are capable of putting up numbers on the offensive side of the ball. However, there's one team I'm far more confident will put points on the board this week.
Let’s dive into my preview and Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State best bet.
Kansas State is once again looking to win the Big 12 and is off to a fast 3-1 start. The Wildcats were driven largely by their defense last season, but the offense is taking the reins this time around.
KSU is 26th ranks Offensive Success Rate and fourth in Finishing Drives. The Wildcats have scored 40-plus points in all three of their wins and also scored 27 on the road against Missouri.
Those outputs become even more impressive when you consider that the Wildcats accomplished them against a tough slate of opposing defenses. All of their FBS opponents were teams whose defenses rank in the top 50 of SP+.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State's defense ranks 56th.
Kansas State has a fairly balanced offensive attack, ranking 28th in Rushing Success Rate and 35th in Passing Success Rate.
Defensively, Kansas State may have taken a slight step back this year. It ranks 24th in Success Rate but is 122nd in Explosiveness. At the end of 2022, Kansas State was rated as the 24th-best defense by SP+; it's now 36th.
Still, Kansas State's run defense is stout. The Wildcats rank first in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and fifth in Rushing PPA Allowed.
However, the passing defense has seen its struggles. Kansas State is just 73rd in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 80th in Passing PPA Allowed.
Fresh off of a bye week, it seems like Mike Gundy has finally decided on a starting quarterback. Alan Bowman, a transfer from both Texas Tech and Michigan, will start for the Cowboys.
After getting off to a choppy start and playing musical chairs with three quarterbacks, Oklahoma State hopes that deciding on one will help its offense move forward.
The way to attack the Wildcats is through the air, so it will be up to Bowman to lead the attack. Oklahoma State passes at the ninth-highest rate in FBS but has just the 115th-best Passing Success Rate.
Oklahoma State’s defense has been ravaged by explosive plays. Down-to-down, the Cowboys don’t look so bad and rank 36th in Success Rate, but they're 126th in Explosiveness and 121st in Finishing Drives.
Passing defense is another weakness for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are 60th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 124th in Passing PPA Allowed.
Oklahoma State is 115th in PFF coverage grade and 121st in PFF tackling grade, so there should be ample opportunities for Kansas State to score.
Kansas State vs Oklahoma State
Betting Pick & Prediction
I believe Kansas State's offense will put plenty of points on the board. The Wildcats offense has been one of the top units in the country, and I think that'll continue here.
On the Oklahoma State side, I don’t know what to expect. With Kansas State’s strong rushing defense, the Cowboys will have to look through the air if they hope to keep up.
Oklahoma State has run its offense at the 24th-fastest pace in the country, while Kansas State ranks 53rd. If I was more certain about Oklahoma State’s offense, I would take the over in this game. However, I'm much more confident in the Wildcats being able to hold up their end of the bargain, so I'm looking to Kansas State’s team total instead.
The Wildcats should be pushing 40 once again, so I'd take this over up to 35 points.
Pick: Kansas State Team Total Over 33.5 (Play to 35)
Nebraska vs. Illinois
Use our BetMGM bonus code for bonus bets before making your Cornhuskers vs. Fighting Illini pick.
By Cody Goggin
With both sitting at 2-3, the Nebraska Cornhuskers will travel to Champaign to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini in a Friday night Big Ten bout.
These two Big Ten West schools have struggled at times this season, but they have also shown some glimpses of their strengths. With these two schools possessing largely equal talent levels, we'll be able to truly see what each team is made of.
There’s one specific team in this matchup that I believe is being undervalued in the market. To find out which side that is, let’s take a look at the odds and best bet for Nebraska vs. Illinois in this college football betting preview.
Nebraska has been dealing with multiple quarterback injuries this season, and it has not helped in Matt Rhule’s first season in Lincoln. With Jeff Sims on the shelf for the last few weeks, it appears that Heinrich Haarberg has assumed the starting role.
Haarberg has not been outstanding, but he has taken care of the ball through the air, giving him an advantage over Sims. This season, Haarberg is averaging -0.01 EPA per dropback, while Sims was at -0.39.
With both of these quarterbacks being better rushing threats than passing threats, the Cornhuskers have stuck to the ground attack this season. They run the ball at the 13th-highest rate and have done so with modest success, ranking 44th in Success Rate and 40th in PPA.
Defensively, Nebraska has been fairly average. The Huskers rank 64th in Success Rate and 36th in explosiveness allowed. The passing defense has been an Achilles’ heel for them, as the secondary sits just 86th in Defensive Passing Success Rate.
It’s the Cornhuskers’ rushing defense that I think could make a difference in this game. They rank 41st in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 20th in rushing explosiveness allowed and 50th in Rushing PPA Allowed.
This defense is now ranked 41st by SP+ and will be the best non-Penn State unit that the Illini have faced this season.
After having one of the best defenses in the country a year ago, this start to 2023 has been truly disappointing for Illinois. The Illini now rank just 113th in Defensive Success Rate, 107th in Havoc and 93rd in Defensive Finishing Drives.
They haven't been successful in defending the run or pass this season, ranking 119th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 84th against the pass. Last weekend, Purdue dismantled Illinois and put up an Offensive Success Rate in the 94th percentile, leading to the Boilermakers hanging 44 on the board.
Offensively, Illinois ranks 32nd in Success Rate but has lacked explosiveness and comes in at 109th in that area. This has led the Illini to a mark of 73rd in Finishing Drives.
Illinois' run/pass splits are an even 50%, but it's been better when it has kept the ball on the ground.
However, its splits between downs are more illuminating. Illinois sits 13th in Success Rate on standard downs, but it's just 108th on passing downs. Nebraska is a team that can stop the run, so I believe it will be able to force Illinois into the passing-down situations it's struggled with.
Nebraska vs Illinois
Betting Pick & Prediction
From a matchup standpoint, I think things bode well for Nebraska here. The Cornhusker rushing attack should be able to blast straight through this paltry Illinois run defense.
On the other side, I believe Nebraska will be able to stop the run on early downs and force the Illini into plenty of obvious passing situations in which they'll fail to move the chains.
Taking a road team in a conference game may not always be the best strategy, but I like getting Nebraska at +3.5 here and would take it down to +3.
Not only do I think the Cornhuskers can cover this number, but I believe they have a strong chance of pulling the upset and moving to 3-3.
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