Florida State vs Clemson Odds, Prediction: Bet Saturday’s Home Underdog
Eakin Howard/Getty Images. Pictured: Clemson’s Will Shipley.
Florida State vs Clemson Odds
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | -130 |
| Clemson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | +110 |
Florida State travels to play Clemson in one of the biggest matchups of the early college football season in what could be an ACC Championship preview on Saturday.
Florida State was sluggish in its win over Boston College this past Saturday, winning by only two points as a 27-point favorite. Prior to that matchup, the Seminoles announced themselves as College Football Playoff contenders on opening weekend as they trounced the LSU Tigers, 45-24, in Orlando.
The Noles' two toughest games after this week are both at home against Duke and Miami, so if Florida State wins this game, there's a legitimate shot it could be undefeated before its final game of the season against Florida.
Clemson, meanwhile, has rebounded from its Week 1 loss to Duke with blowout wins over Charleston Southern and Florida Atlantic. Dabo Swinney's team was the co-favorite alongside the Seminoles to win the ACC before the season, but the Tigers now find themselves as home underdogs on Saturday in what could be the defining game of their season.
Find a betting preview, pick and prediction for Florida State vs. Clemson on Saturday, Sept. 23 below.
Jordan Travis is an incredible quarterback and one of the best in college football. Last season,
he had one of the best PFF passing grades in the country at 90.1 while also averaging 9.1 yards per attempt, with 27 big-time throws compared to eight turnover-worthy plays.
Although it may seem like he's playing great to start this season, his PFF passing grades haven't been up to par with his standard from last year.
Image via PFF.
In this matchup against Clemson last season in Tallahassee, Travis put together a good-but-not-great performance by completing 24-of-42 passes for 254 yards with three touchdowns and a fumble.
However, this Florida State team has even more weapons surrounding Travis. Michigan State transfer Keon Coleman put up a monster game against LSU but has faded since then with only nine total targets and three catches for 48 yards combined against Southern Miss and Boston College.
Seminoles running back Trey Benson has really struggled to get going this season. Last year, he averaged 6.4 yards per carry and forced a whopping 79 missed tackles. He had a strong performance against Southern Miss, but against Boston College and LSU, he averaged under four yards per carry and forced only three missed tackles.
The Florida State defense has been pretty shaky to begin the season, especially against the run. The Seminoles have allowed 3.8 yards per carry but sit 122nd in Rushing Explosiveness Allowed and 90th in EPA/Rush Allowed. Boston College, of all teams, ran for over 150 yards on the ground against them.
The Seminoles returned nine starters on defense with most of them in their front seven. They had issues last season trying to stop the run, ranking 88th in EPA/Rush Allowed, 101st in Stuff Rate and 110th in Defensive Line Yards, so it looks like there hasn't been much improvement in the front seven.
Clemson blew out Florida Atlantic last weekend, but everyone is pointing to the Week 1 loss against Duke.
To be honest, I didn't think it was that terrible in that game. The Tigers ran 19 more plays than the Blue Devils and gained over 400 yards. They crossed Duke's 40-yard line six times but scored only seven points.
Cade Klubnik was a highly-touted prospect coming out of high school, but in the two games he has started against Power 5 competition — Tennessee in the Orange Bowl last year and Duke in Week 1 — he really hasn't been effective.
That means Clemson will have to rely more on its run game with veteran Will Shipley, who scored 15 touchdowns and averaged 5.6 yards per carry in 2022. So far this season, he's averaging 6.1 yards per carry, has forced 11 missed tackles and is averaging 3.6 yards per carry after contact.
The Tigers brought back four starters on their offensive line and are creating gaping holes for Shipley to run through, as they rank second in the nation in Offensive Line Yards.
The Clemson defense did lose a lot of talent up front, but as usual with a Dabo Swinney team, it has so much talent and depth across the defensive line that there really shouldn't be a big drop-off. The Tigers allowed Duke to average 6.7 yards per run in the opener, but a lot of that was from one long 44-yard run by quarterback Riley Leonard.
Clemson is stacked in the secondary again after ranking 10th in EPA/Pass Allowed in 2022. It's among the top 10 once again in EPA/Pass Allowed and held Leonard to just 175 yards and 5.3 yards per attempt in the opener.
As I mentioned above, the Tigers did a decent job of limiting Travis in this game last season and have the personnel, such as cornerback Nate Wiggins, to limit Keon Coleman.
Clemson CB Nate Wiggins in Week 3:
🐅 86.5 PFF Grade
🐅 1 Yard Allowed
🐅 1 INT (Pick Six)
🐅 16.7 Passer Rating Allowed pic.twitter.com/IuaFuodLsl— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 19, 2023
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida State and Clemson match up statistically:
Florida State Offense vs. Clemson Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 82 | 23 | |
| Line Yards | 56 | 57 | |
| Pass Success | 35 | 15 | |
| Havoc | 13 | 8 | |
| Finishing Drives | 13 | 63 | |
| Quality Drives | 20 | 34 |
Clemson Offense vs. Florida State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 6 | 56 | |
| Line Yards | 2 | 26 | |
| Pass Success | 22 | 37 | |
| Havoc | 24 | 38 | |
| Finishing Drives | 72 | 75 | |
| Quality Drives | 64 | 73 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 115 | 18 |
| PFF Coverage | 35 | 36 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 106 | 103 |
| Middle 8 | 1 | 69 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.3 (100) | 24.1 (23) |
| Rush Rate | 54.4% (51) | 48.7% (97) |
Florida State vs Clemson
Betting Pick & Prediction
If there was ever a spot to back Clemson, this is the one. When this line opened in August, Clemson was a three-point favorite, and now the spread has swung nearly six points in the other direction.
Clemson did lose to Duke, but it wasn't a "bad loss by any stretch of the imagination given the frequency with which the Tigers moved the ball into scoring territory along with their 63% Standard Downs Success Rate.
Florida State has shown cracks against the run so far this season, which is not ideal in this matchup considering Clemson's elite rushing attack led by Shipley.
It's rare that Swinney is a home underdog, but as an underdog against ranked opponents, he's 11-4 ATS.
I have Clemson projected as a 2.6-point favorite, so I like the value on the Tigers on the moneyline at +114 to pull off the upset over the No. 4 team in the country.
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