South Carolina vs Florida Odds
| South Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
South Carolina looks to get back to .500 when it hosts Florida in Columbia.
Florida got its season back on track with a blowout win over Vanderbilt on Saturday. The Gators now sit at 4-2 with road losses to Utah and Kentucky.
Billy Napier's seat is getting a little warm. Another subpar season will not be tolerated in Gainesville, and Florida must win toss-up games like this one.
Meanwhile, South Carolina is struggling. The Gamecocks are coming off a bye, but Tennessee dominated them the last time they were in action, winning 41-20 in Knoxville.
Spencer Rattler's offense hasn't been efficient, and the defense has been similarly lackluster. It'll be an uphill climb to a bowl game, and these coin-flip games are must wins if they want to accomplish that goal.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Rattler came into this season with high expectations but hasn't come close to meeting them.
Through five games this year, Rattler is averaging 8.6 yards per attempt. But against elite opponents — such as Georgia and Kentucky — he's struggled. Rattler averaged fewer than 6.5 yards per attempt with six Turnover Worthy Plays and a sub-70 PFF passing grade across the two contests.
Rattler has a negative EPA, ranking 67th among quarterbacks with at least 100 passing attempts, which is much worse than Mertz.
The big problem for Rattler is that the Gamecocks' offense is over-reliant on his arm. They can't run the ball to save their lives, as they managed only 185 combined rushing yards against Georgia and Tennessee. The Gamecocks rank sub-100th in Rush Success Rate and Offensive Line Yards.
Meanwhile, the South Carolina defense is horrific. The Gamecocks are allowing 6.3 yards per play to FBS opponents, ranking 110th nationally. They're also 125th in Success Rate Allowed and 112th in EPA per Play Allowed.
Trying to limit Florida quarterback Graham Mertz will be a problem in this matchup. The South Carolina secondary is allowing the 16th-highest completion rate to opposing quarterbacks.
The Gamecocks also rank sub-100th in EPA per Pass Allowed and Passing Success Rate Allowed.
Florida Gators
Mertz catches a lot of flack from his days at Wisconsin, and maybe some of it is deserved. But whether people want to admit it or not, Mertz is a good quarterback.
Check out his recent performances. He's crushing it.
He's super accurate. His 88.7% adjusted completion rate is the nation's highest (min. 100 pass attempts). And, per Sports Info Solutions, Mertz's 93.3% catchable throw rate is also tops in college football.
It's great to complete passes, but it's meaningless without substance. Luckily, Mertz has both accuracy and substance, ranking 22nd nationally in Expected Points Added (EPA).
Florida has struggled to run the ball, only averaging 3.9 yards per carry against FBS opponents. But it's still top-50 nationally in both Rushing Success Rate and Offensive Line Yards. Plus, the Gators are getting Trevor Etienne back from injury this week, so their regular two-man backfield — with Montrell Johnson — is back intact.
Despite a lousy performance against Kentucky, the Florida defense has been outstanding. The Gators rank third nationally in Success Rate Allowed.
Unfortunately, they're still giving up too many big plays, ranking 132nd in Explosiveness Allowed. Most of those explosive plays are coming on the ground, even as they rank in the top five nationally in Rush Success Rate Allowed.
The secondary is the defense's strength, allowing only 6.9 yards per pass attempt. The Gators are also 28th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 19th in PFF's Coverage grades. They should shut down Rattler.
South Carolina vs Florida
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida and South Carolina match up statistically:
Florida Offense vs South Carolina Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 43 | 105 | |
| Line Yards | 43 | 70 | |
| Pass Success | 18 | 115 | |
| Havoc | 77 | 121 | |
| Finishing Drives | 19 | 38 | |
| Quality Drives | 22 | 85 | |
South Carolina Offense vs Florida Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 105 | 4 | |
| Line Yards | 115 | 32 | |
| Pass Success | 67 | 28 | |
| Havoc | 118 | 60 | |
| Finishing Drives | 90 | 48 | |
| Quality Drives | 96 | 28 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 83 | 27 |
| PFF Coverage | 19 | 88 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 26 | 33 |
| Middle 8 | 43 | 74 |
| Seconds per Play | 31.2 (129) | 25.8 (48) |
| Rush Rate | 52.8% (69) | 47.8% (121) |
South Carolina vs Florida
Betting Prediction
The Gamecocks are at home. They also have a rest advantage off a bye, and Florida is in a look-ahead spot with Georgia on deck.
But the matchup is downright terrible for South Carolina.
Mertz should be able to sling it all over the field against a South Carolina secondary that's allowing one of the highest completion percentages in the Power Five.
Meanwhile, all the pressure will be on Rattler to beat a top-20 secondary over the top, given South Carolina can't run the ball.
Considering the performances against Georgia and Tennessee, I highly doubt he'll come through.
I have Florida projected as a -1.1 favorite, so I like the value at +2.5 (BetMGM) or better.
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