Florida Atlantic vs Illinois Odds
| FL Atlantic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -115 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +500 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -105 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -700 |
Week 4 brings one final non-conference game for the Illinois Fighting Illini, as they host the Florida Atlantic Owls in Memorial Stadium in Champaign before they're engulfed in Big Ten Conference play.
This figures to be FAU’s final out-of-conference game, as well, before entering American Athletic Conference play.
Both FAU and Illinois enter this game with disappointing 1-2 records and are looking to get back on track. FAU suffered a blowout road loss at the hands of Clemson in Death Valley, while Illinois lost a tough one at home against the playoff-hopeful Penn State Nittany Lions.
Which team can we expect to bounce back prior to conference play? Let’s get into the odds and see which team may hold the edge.
Florida Atlantic Owls
Following a 5-7 year in 2022, the Owls aren't off to the best start in 2023, sitting at 1-2. This comes after a loss in which they were outscored 41-0 at Clemson before eventually finding the end zone in the fourth quarter in an eventual 48-14 loss.
The key statistic I see as playing a major role in this one is the amount of pass plays that offensive coordinator Charlie Frye has the Owls running. They come in ranking 28th in the country in Pass Play Rate.
This team loves to throw the ball despite having a talented runner in Larry McCammon III, who's averaging 7.4 yards per carry this season on 20 carries.
This team clearly loves to throw the ball and catch the defense by surprise with some mixed-in runs. Unfortunately for the Owls, starting quarterback Casey Thompson — who's a former quarterback for the Texas Longhorns — has likely torn his ACL and will be out for the remainder of the season.
Quarterback Daniel Richardson will be the starter under center on Saturday after being thrown into a tough matchup against Clemson this past Saturday. He completed slightly over 50% of his passes and threw one interception.
Richardson will have to come out ready to execute against a talented Illinois defense.
On the other side of the ball, FAU’s defense can provide some sparks here and there. It ranks 21st in the country in Explosiveness, which could play a major role in helping Richardson work with short fields.
Unfortunately for the Owls, the explosiveness doesn’t exactly translate into success defensively. FAU ranks 88th in Run Defense Success Rate and 75th in Passing Defense Success Rate.
This means the Owls will need to rely on some turnovers to help get them off the field.
Illinois Fighting Illini
After finishing with a surprising 8-5 record in 2022, Illinois had high hopes for this season. But the Illini sit at 1-2 going into this final non-conference game.
Last week against Penn State, the defense looked to have some things figured out after getting carved up by Kansas on the road the week prior.
The big question going into this game is how will quarterback Luke Altmyer respond after a four-interception game against Penn State.
The Illini have had a lot of success moving the ball this season. Their run game — while not very explosive (110th in the country) — is effective at 20th in Success Rate. This helps Illinois chew clock and maintain possession with the short gains.
With Altmyer at the helm, the passing game has ranked a solid 54th in the country.
It's clear the bread and butter of this team is to run the ball, and I expect Illinois to continue to do that here to help Altmyer settle in after his turnover-prone game last week.
Expect a heavy dose of Reggie Love III and Josh McCray early and often to get this Illinois offense moving.
The Illini defense, however, is not the same as the one we had grown accustomed to seeing. Departures to the NFL — especially in the secondary — have left this defense looking for new pieces to plug and play.
The big struggle defensively for the Illini is the run defense. They rank 112th in Run Defense Success Rate, which is horrible for a Power Five team touting a top-tier unit. The pass defense hasn't been much better, ranking 103rd.
This might be worse if it were not for Jer'Zhan Newton, who's the Illini's most talented interior lineman and among the best in the entire country. A potential first-round draft prospect, Newton lived in the Penn State backfield last weekend, helping Illinois keep the game closer than it maybe should've been given the offense’s five turnovers.
This defense may be starting to rally around Newton and the Illini could turn it around after two disappointing performances against Toledo and Kansas.
Florida Atlantic vs Illinois
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida Atlantic and Illinois match up statistically:
Florida Atlantic Offense vs. Illinois Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 109 | 113 |  |
| Line Yards | 51 | 127 | |
| Pass Success | 82 | 78 | |
| Havoc | 128 | 120 | |
| Finishing Drives | 118 | 96 | |
| Quality Drives | 127 | 127 | |
Illinois Offense vs. Florida Atlantic Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 20 | 88 | |
| Line Yards | 14 | 104 | |
| Pass Success | 54 | 75 | |
| Havoc | 117 | 127 | |
| Finishing Drives | 27 | 93 | |
| Quality Drives | 131 | 59 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 2 | 71 |
| PFF Coverage | 46 | 94 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 116 | 38 |
| Middle 8 | 128 | 126 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.5 (26) | 24.8 (29) |
| Rush Rate | 41.7% (124) | 48.4% (109) |
Florida Atlantic vs Illinois
Betting Pick & Prediction
While the Illini defense has seemed to struggle this season, I think this FAU offense — which is down to its backup quarterback — will be the least-talented unit they see all season.
I expect the Illini's defense to stifle the Owls' offense, keying in on McCammon.
The success of the Illinois offense will be dependent on if the Illini can get the running game going and grab an early lead to make Altmyer’s job easier. That will hopefully help him play a cleaner game.
FAU will need a big game from Richardson to keep this one close, but I don't see that being the case here.
Give me Illinois -15.5 and play it to -16.
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