FIU vs New Mexico State Odds
| FIU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
The greatest celebration of football comes in the month of November when the Mid-American Conference takes over with a tradition known as MACtion.
However, Conference USA rebranded with new teams and a new schedule in the offseason, jumping the MAC in midweek games starting in October.
Florida International and New Mexico State will represent the conference on Wednesday, with one team inching closer to bowl season and another stuck in the cellar of Conference USA.
With an offseason win total below four, the Panthers have already rattled off three wins over Maine, North Texas and UConn heading into conference play.
Head coach Mike MacIntyre has retrieved the program from the abyss as he looks to propel Florida International to its sixth bowl appearance in program history. Thanks to improvement on the defensive side of the ball, the Panthers should make it to bowl season for the first time since 2019.
After spending nearly 20 years bouncing between the WAC and Sun Belt, New Mexico State went Independent after winning the 2017 Arizona Bowl. Now, NMSU is back in a conference.
The Aggies made a return trip to the postseason with a 2022 Quick Lane Bowl victory in Jerry Kill’s first season as head coach. The momentum did not carry over to the current season, as they took a loss in their first Conference USA game against Liberty.
New Mexico State has just a single win over FBS competition this season, beating in-state rival New Mexico in Week 3.
The Aggies embark on a schedule populated with coin-flips, starting in Week 6 against Florida International.
Florida International Panthers
The Golden Panthers have been a surprise on the defensive side of the ball.
The 3-3-5 front from defensive coordinator Jovan Dewitt has been fantastic at taking away the pass against opponents. Although its schedule of opposing offenses leaves something to be desired, FIU sits top-40 in Defensive Passing Success Rate and PFF coverage grading.
While the Havoc numbers are outside the top 100, FIU is producing a top-30 pass rush. Both edge Alex Nobles and interior Jordan Guerad have thrived in the three-man front, generating a combined 33 pressures.
The offensive side has had severe struggles creating Quality Drives and cashing in on scoring opportunities. FIU averages a lowly 2.8 points on 21 drives that have crossed the opponent's 40-yard line.
Freshman quarterback Keyone Jenkins has produced plenty of big-time throws, but a turnover-worthy play rate at 6% has been troublesome.
The Panthers rank 130th in Havoc Allowed and 131st in Offensive Momentum Killer — both numbers deriving from tackles for loss, penalties, turnovers and a bevy of stats that measure the health of the offense.
For FIU to take another step toward bowl season, the offense must improve its dreadful numbers in controlling the line of scrimmage.
New Mexico State Aggies
Despite three losses on the season, New Mexico State has an offensive identity.
Quarterback Diego Pavia and running back Star Thomas lead an Aggies offense that leads the country in Line Yards and Rushing Success Rate. Granted, New Mexico State has the 121st-ranked strength of schedule, but the Aggies have been excellent at gaining the required yards in standard downs.
Thomas has created 16 missed tackles on the season thanks to a heavy inside and outside zone rush attack.
Pavia has been tough to bring down as well, averaging 4.5 yards after contact while racking up 194 designed yards versus 140 from scrambling attempts.
TOUCHDOWN @NMStateFootball
Diego Pavia finds Jonathan Brady all alone on his way to the end zone!
📺: MW Network pic.twitter.com/qmpUEhD0dX
— Conference USA (@ConferenceUSA) September 17, 2023
However, the defense has not replicated the success of the offense, generating bottom-of-the-barrel ranks in passing downs and tackle grading.
The Aggies have trouble defending the pass but have seen a glimmer of improvement against the rush. A rank of 45th in tackles for loss has boosted New Mexico State's Havoc numbers, but long down and distances have been painful for the Aggies.
If New Mexico State wants to improve on defense, third-down stops must increase.
FIU vs New Mexico State
Betting Pick & Prediction
The pace numbers indicate that Wednesday's Conference USA kickoff could be a slow grind in Las Cruces.
New Mexico State runs a heavy ground attack behind one of the slowest paces in FBS, averaging 31.4 seconds per play with a 61% rush rate. The Florida International defense has been great against the pass, but the Aggies should have success running the ball against a Panthers team that ranks 96th in Defensive Stuff Rate and outside the top 100 in Line Yards.
Where the Aggies could run into issues is in scoring position, as Florida International boasts a top-30 unit in terms of Defensive Finishing Drives. The Panthers have allowed just 12 of their opponent's 18 red-zone trips to end in points, with half of the opportunities resulting in a touchdown.
The FIU offense is not expected to contribute to the scoring. A rank of 129th in Offensive Quality Drives and 131st in Offensive Momentum Killer means the Panthers struggle to gain more than two first downs on drives. Explosiveness is the only avenue for scores, especially considering the New Mexico State defense ranks outside the top 100 in both Rush and Pass EPA.
The Action Network projection on the side comes in at New Mexico State -4, as the market opened and steamed toward a touchdown in favor of the Aggies. The better wager will come on the total, where the projection is 46.
With a pace of play similar to gridlock traffic on I-25, look for two offenses that struggle to piece together methodical drives to keep this game under the total.
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