Colorado State vs Wyoming Odds, Picks: Best College Football Bet for Friday
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -105 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +190 |
| Wyoming Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -115 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
It's a great night to dive into the college football odds, so let's preview Colorado State-Wyoming with our Colorado State vs Wyoming odds, picks and best bet for Friday.
The Rams have had one of the more bizarre seasons this year. They got blown out at home by Washington State after giving up 50 in Week 2, almost beat in-state rival Colorado, had one of the more insane comebacks to beat Boise State on a Hail Mary, and then got blown out at home by Air Force.
Wyoming has now dropped two straight games, losing a close one to Air Force and then getting blown out by Boise State on the Smurf Turf last weekend.
The Cowboys are a tale of two team. They've been awesome in Laramie, going 5-0 with a notable upset win over Texas Tech to start the season. On the road, it's been a different story, as they're 0-3.
The good news for them is this game is being played in Laramie, and it serves as a great opportunity for the Pokes to reach bowl eligibility.
This game is a Border War rivalry, as the winner receives the Bronze Boot. Let'd dive into where the betting value lies in this Friday night Mountain West matchup.
Pick: Wyoming -6
Colorado State Rams
Colorado State's transition from a run-heavy offense to Jay Norvell's Air Raid has seen mixed results.
Freshman Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has been thrust into the starting quarterback role, and he's played admirably. Per Sports Info Solutions, he has a 49% Positive EPA Play Percentage, but he hasn't been that accurate.
Fowler-Nicolosi has a catchable pass percentage of just 78.8% with an on-target percentage of 67.6%, which both rank outside the top 100 among quarterbacks who have thrown at least 100 passes.
Considering his low completion percentage, you would think he throws the ball down the field at a high rate, but that's not the case. Only 30.1% of his pass attempts this season have been over 10 yards in the air, and he tends to put the ball up for grabs when he does throw it downfield. He has 18 turnover-worthy plays this year — the fifth-most in FBS.
The problem for Fowler-Nicolosi is that all of the pressure is on his shoulders. Colorado State throws the ball on 63.8% of offensive plays, which is the second-highest rate in the country. When it does decide the run the ball, it's been completely ineffective, ranking 132nd in EPA/Rush.
The Rams defense has been exposed quite often this season, especially last weekend against Air Force's triple option. The Falcons racked up 261 rushing yards and averaged 4.6 yards per carry on the night — not a good sign for the Rams when they're about to face a run-heavy Wyoming offense.
Although the weather doesn't look great for passing the ball on Friday night, Colorado State will be in trouble if Wyoming can get its passing attack going. The Rams rank outside the top 100 in Passing Success Rate Allowed, passing explosiveness allowed and EPA/Pass Allowed.
Wyoming Cowboys
Wyoming is a team built to run the ball and control the line of scrimmage. However, it hasn't done a great job of that this season. The Cowboys are 82nd in Offensive Line Yards and 57th in Stuff Rate, but when it matters most, they've been very successful.
Wyoming ranks 26th in Power Success Rate, which measures the percentage of running plays on third or fourth down from two yards or less in which an offense either converts a first down or scores a TD, per CollegeFootballData.
Colorado State ranks 83rd in that same category defensively, so third- and fourth-and-short situations are going to be a big advantage for the Pokes on Friday night.
This is Craig Bohl's 10th year as Wyoming's head coach, and not surprisingly, the Cowboys are running the ball on 58.7% of their offensive plays. They haven't been that effective in doing so, though, because they're averaging only 4.3 yards per carry and rank 92nd in Rushing Success Rate.
The key in this game will be Andrew Peasley and the Wyoming passing attack given how bad the Colorado State secondary is.
There's one area where Peasley has been pretty good this season: play action. With how often Wyoming runs the ball, teams are often playing a heavy box to try and stop the run. When Peasley runs play action, he's averaging 8.1 yards per attempt with a 53% Positive EPA Play Percentage, which ranks top-50 in the nation.
Wyoming's defensive metrics look pretty average to below average on the season, but its home and road splits are almost night and day. It allows more than a yard less per play both on the ground and through the air at home compared to on the ground.
Its schedule has been harder on the road than at home, but when the performance gaps are this drastic, there's probably something to the fact that the Pokes just play way better at home.
Colorado State vs Wyoming
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Colorado State and Wyoming match up statistically:
Colorado State Offense vs. Wyoming Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 128 | 101 | |
| Line Yards | 130 | 110 | |
| Pass Success | 45 | 92 | |
| Havoc | 78 | 50 | |
| Finishing Drives | 74 | 63 | |
| Quality Drives | 109 | 117 | |
Wyoming Offense vs. Colorado State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 92 | 61 | |
| Line Yards | 82 | 60 | |
| Pass Success | 83 | 104 | |
| Havoc | 49 | 59 | |
| Finishing Drives | 52 | 54 |  |
| Quality Drives | 63 | 121 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 55 | 109 |
| PFF Coverage | 74 | 50 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 35 | 45 |
| Middle 8 | 130 | 100 |
| Seconds per Play | 22.6 (8) | 30.0 (119) |
| Rush Rate | 36.2% (132) | 58.7% (30) |
Colorado State vs Wyoming
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a game of polar opposite styles of play. Colorado State wants to play fast and throw the ball all over the field, while Wyoming wants to grind the game to a halt and run the ball to control the clock.
So, which style wins out in the end? I say Wyoming.
The Pokes' secondary has been exposed at times, but if we go back to the beginning of the season, they played a team very similar to Colorado State in Texas Tech. This unit held the Red Raiders to 17 points and Tyler Shough to just 7.2 yards per attempt until things got crazy in multiple overtimes.
The splits between Wyoming's performance at home versus on the road are quite drastic, but this will be played in Laramie. The weather is also in the Cowboys' favor with winds around 15 mph at kickoff against a pass-heavy team.
Bohl also has been very profitable covering the spread at home over the last five years.
I have Wyoming projected at -10.1, so I like the value on the Cowboys at -6.
