College Football Predictions, Picks: Collin Wilson’s Week 14 Bets for Ohio State vs Michigan, Alabama vs Auburn

Week 14 of the college football season — also known as "Rivalry Week" — is officially upon us.

This marks the final week of the 2024 college football regular season, so it's time to make the most of what we have before the postseason. With games spread out from Thursday through Saturday, we have the perfect opportunity.

My Week 14 Action Network betting card spans three days, featuring Memphis vs. Tulane on Thursday, as well as Friday's Egg Bowl between Mississippi State and Ole Miss, and another in-state rivalry between Georgia Tech and Georgia.

Then, to close it all out on Saturday, we have "The Game" between Michigan and Ohio State, the Iron Bowl between Auburn and Alabama and the Lone Star Showdown between Texas and Texas A&M.

It's a loaded slate for any college football fan or investor, so let's dive right in.

Continue reading for my full Week 14 betting card, including college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Ohio State vs. Michigan, Alabama vs. Auburn and much more.

Collin Wilson's College Football Predictions & Picks for Week 14

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	Thursday, 7:30 p.m.	Over 55
	Friday, 3:30 p.m.	1H Under 31.5
	Friday, 7:30 p.m.	Georgia Tech 1H +10.5
	Saturday, 12 p.m.	Ohio State -21 · Over 43
	Saturday, 3:30 p.m.	Auburn +11.5 · Alabama 1Q -3.5
	Saturday, 7:30 p.m.	Texas A&M +5
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Thursday, Nov. 28

7:30 p.m. ET

ESPN

Over 55

Before we get to the AAC Championship that features Tulane, the Green Wave (9-2, 7-0 AAC) will host the Memphis Tigers (9-2, 5-2) on Thursday, Nov. 28 for a Thanksgiving Day matchup.

Tulane and Army will meet in the AAC Championship on Friday, Dec. 6 at a location yet determined. The Green Wave and Black Knights are the only undefeated teams in conference play, leading every other member of the AAC by two games.

While Tulane and Army can lose their Week 14 contests, home-field advantage is at for both teams. If both Army and Tulane win Week 14, the College Football Playoff rankings may be the deciding factor on whether Yulman Stadium or Michie Stadium will host the AAC title game.

Memphis will look to spoil Tulane’s intentions of staying home in New Orleans the first week of December. The Tigers have suffered 2 conference losses, a 56-44 loss at Navy in Week 4 and a 44-36 trip to UTSA in Week 10. Both games were on the road and had a combined point total of 180 points.

Both teams are coming off a bye week, as Tulane enters as a -13.5 favorite with an over/under set at 55.

Let's dive into my Memphis vs. Tulane predictions and college football picks for Thursday, Nov. 28.

Memphis Tigers

There was a continuous signal that the Memphis defense had issues stopping AAC opponents before the UTSA loss. North Texas put 44 on the board in a highly explosive Week 8 contest. The Mean Green created 10 pass explosives with four offensive possessions averaging at least 10 yards per play.

Those struggles continued in Week 9 while hosting Charlotte, allowing the 49ers five yards per rush and a touchdown on every scoring opportunity.

The 3-3-5 defense has been poor in a number of basic fundamentals, ranking 124th in broken tackles allowed. The inability of the nickel secondary to stop offenses in one-on-one tackling situations has created a rank of 119th against the explosive rush.

Despite the issues in Rush EPA (Expected Points Added), the Tigers are 11th in our latest Havoc Rankings thanks to a high mark in forced fumbles.

Quarterback Seth Henigan has kept the offense humming thanks to a top-20 rank in offensive momentum killer.

Henigan has posted 28 big-time throws to just 12 turnover-worthy plays this season, indicating the passing has been more elite than his 21 touchdowns indicate.

Memphis ranks 13th in On-Target Rate, a statistic from Sports Info Solutions that measures the accuracy of hitting targets in stride.

When hitches and crossing routes aren't moving the chains, Memphis turns to Mario Anderson Jr. to lead a top-20 rushing attack that uses heavy zone-read concepts.

Tulane Green Wave

The Green Wave have left no doubt on over the previous three games, as five of their seven conference wins have come with a minimum 96% post-game win expectancy.

Losses to Oklahoma and Kansas State in nonconference play hindered Tulane from making a run as the top Group of Five team, but an AAC Championship appearance in head coach Jon Sumrall's first season is a major accomplishment.

Offensive coordinator Joe Craddock uses a heavy rush attack that utilizes a variety of concepts, including outside zone, power and man.

The centerpiece of the offense is running back Mahki Hughes, generating nearly 1,300 yards on the season with 15 touchdowns and 56 missed tackles forced.

The sophomore averages more than four yards after first contact, a lethal combination with an offensive line that's top-25 in Line Yards.

The Tulane defense has been one of the best in the conference under coordinator Greg Gasparato’s nickel package.

The Green Wave sit top-25 in Havoc thanks to one of the best pass-rush units and a hard stop rank in the top five of all FBS defenses.

The numbers are even more impressive in passing downs, ranking top-five in both efficiency and explosives allowed.

Edge rushers Matthew Fobbs-White and Adin Huntington have created 39 pressures, while linebacker Tyler Grubbs leads the team with 25 stops, defined by PFF as a complete failure by the offense.

Memphis vs. Tulane Pick

Action Network's projection calls for Tulane to be favored by 11, short of the current market set at two touchdowns. The bigger question is finding the motivation for this game, with Memphis projected for the Hawaii Bowl and Tulane’s upcoming conference championship game.

While Memphis is the look in regard to a side, there are defensive issues that have percolated down the stretch worth noting in this game.

The Tigers have given up a plenty of explosives against teams using man and outside zone — two of the biggest concepts used by the Green Wave offense.

Memphis ranks bottom-15 nationally in rush explosives allowed, an indication that Hughes should hit the Tigers with a few runs to get into scoring position.

Memphis also sits 70th in Defensive Finishing Drives — a poor number in defending the extended red zone considering a strength of schedule of 132nd.

The next question is Memphis' ability to join Tulane on the scoreboard.

While the overall numbers from Henigan have not made the Tigers one of the more explosive offenses in the nation, the numbers in early downs tell a different story.

Memphis has one of the highest rates nationally in choosing pass on first downs, as the Tigers will go right at a secondary that ranks 29th in creating contested catches.

The Tulane defense has struggled with broken tackles as well, ranking 127th in that area this season. The bigger number in the analytics is standard downs explosives, as Tulane allows a big play at one of the worst rates in the country.

Look for Henigan and Memphis to get down the field early in standard downs, taking advantage of a defense that's 121st in Standard Downs EPA Allowed.

Tulane will also have success on the ground with run concepts that Memphis has been unable to defend all season.

Our Action Network total projection comes in at 56.5, just above the biggest key number in totals. Buying a half-point on totals is only considered around the key of 55, as the juice on this number should be limited to -120 or better.

Pick: Over 55 (-120 or Better)

Friday, Nov. 29

3:30 p.m. ET

ABC

1H Under 31.5

The Egg Bowl peaked in 2019, when the result of the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Ole Miss Rebels game was dubbed the "Piss, the Miss and the Double Dismiss."

The Rebels (8-3, 4-3 SEC) and Bulldogs (2-9, 0-7) soon fired their head coaches and moved on to a new era, leading Lane Kiffin from Florida Atlantic to Ole Miss.

Ole Miss had a path to the College Football Playoff throughout the season, but a 24-17 loss to Florida last week all but eliminates them.

Mississippi State, meanwhile, has struggled to remain relevant since the death of head coach Mike Leach. The Bulldogs have had more head coaches than SEC wins over the past two seasons, as Jeff Lebby was unable to right the ship in his inaugural season.

Ole Miss enters the game as a -26.5-point favorite, as points are expected in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium with a total at 61.5.

Let's dive into my Mississippi State vs Ole Miss predictions and college football picks for Friday, Nov. 29.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Mississippi State has not improved during Lebby's first season as head coach. The former Oklahoma offensive coordinator indicated at SEC Media Days that the offense would be his style of Air Raid and not a hybrid offense to match the best attributes of the roster.

The Bulldogs sit outside the top 100 in Success Rate, relying on explosive plays to move the ball.

Quarterback Michael Van Buren took over as the starter in Week 5 against Texas, notching a near-even ratio of big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays through 224 passing attempts.

Defensive coordinator Coleman Hutzler has fielded one of the worst defenses in Power Four football. The 3-3-5 personnel is dead last in numerous categories, including coverage, pass rush, Havoc and Passing Success Rate allowed.

The secondary also sits near dead last in allowing pass explosives while finishing as the worst FBS team in creating contested catches.

Brice Pollock has been the shining star at cornerback, generating four pass breakups and an interception while posting one of the best tackle grades on the roster.

Ole Miss Rebels

Ole Miss, fresh off a loss to Florida that could be a national title eliminator, may be the toughest team to handicap in Week 14.

While a rivalry game should awaken any program, Kiffin mentioned there are 48 new players on the roster with no experience in the Egg Bowl.

The Egg Bowl could be a chance for Jaxson Dart to rectify the mistakes from Week 13, as his last two offensive possessions against Florida ended with an interception.

There were numerous injuries suffered during the game, one of the constant issues Kiffin has faced in the 2024 season.

Wide receiver Tre Harris finally returned to action with a clean bill of health, only to limp off the field against Florida.

While the Harris injury has been constant through the second half of the season, Ole Miss suffered a much bigger injury with the loss of center Reece McIntyre.

The offensive lineman was replaced by right guard Gerquan Scott, who graded poorly while giving up three pressures in just two dozen snaps.

With starting tight end Dae'Quan Wright also leaving with an injury, Ole Miss may have some holes to patch in the blocking department.

On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Pete Golding's nickel defense has lived up to expectations as the top-rated Havoc unit in the FBS.

Uncharacteristically, the Rebels allowed several explosive drives and had consistent struggles in the red-zone against the Gators.

Ole Miss allowed Florida to extend drives beyond the 40-yard line on four occasions, allowing three touchdowns and a field goal. The Gators converted nearly half of their third-down attempts despite an average distance of 8.3 yards to go.

Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss Pick

Kiffin sold the new Ole Miss roster on the importance of the Egg Bowl, a game that has moved from Thanksgiving evening to a Friday afternoon.

The bigger question is not motivation, but the injury concerns for the Rebels at numerous positions.

The injury to McIntyre at center will force Ole Miss to shuffle the offensive line and start less experienced players. McIntyre is the highest-graded pass-blocking lineman on the team — a critical blow to the protection of Dart.

In 123 pressured dropbacks this season, Dart has produced a high 5.1% turnover-worthy play rate.

Despite Ole Miss' motivational questions, Mississippi State struggles to field quality play on both sides of the ball. The Bulldogs' uptempo offense ranks 128th in momentum killer, a statistic that gauges penalties, turnovers and various statistics that stop a possession.

Another issue has been game-flow scoring for Mississippi State this season, coming in with the eighth-worst scoring differential in the first half. The scripted portion has been unkind to the Bulldogs, who have trailed by an average of 9.3 points at halftime.

Look for the Ole Miss defense to continue wrecking opposing offenses during the early scripted portion of the game.

The Rebels offense should have minimal resistance, but offensive line shuffling and injuries to the skill positions could stall the scoring through the early stages of the Egg Bowl.

Pick: First Half Under 31.5

Friday, Nov. 29

7:30 p.m. ET

ABC

Georgia Tech 1H +10.5

Georgia (9-2) locked up a bid to the SEC Championship game by default, thanks to numerous SEC teams taking a loss in Week 13.

This option will now give the Bulldogs a chance to win the conference and bye into the national quarterfinals.

Before head coach Kirby Smart heads to Atlanta to compete for a conference, Georgia Tech (7-4) will visit Athens in Week 14.

Head coach Brent Key has found plenty of success since taking over the Georgia Tech program after serving as offensive line coach.

The Yellow Jackets are no strangers to playing games in a grind, attempting fourth downs at one of the higher rates in the FBS. Key has modeled Georgia Tech's identity as a tough out, going 7-7 over the past two seasons as an underdog.

A win for Georgia Tech can only improve an upcoming bowl selection.

Georgia opened as a 19.5-point favorite over Georgia Tech, with a total of 53, which has seen steam on the Under.

Read on for our Georgia Tech vs Georgia predictions and college football picks.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner continues to add new dimensions to Georgia Tech.

Freshman quarterback Aaron Philo attempted his most passes in Week 13 against NC State. Philo is a known product in the state, setting the all-time passing record for Georgia High School before commitment to Georgia Tech.

While interchanging snap-to-snap with starter Haynes King, Philo has generated 12 big-time throws to just a single turnover-worthy play this season.

In addition to the impressive passing numbers, he has the ability to scoot, rushing for his first touchdown at the college level against NC State.

While the offense has a balanced attack, the 3-3-5 defense has had severe issues in several areas. Georgia Tech ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in tackle grading and generating a pass rush.

The trenches have always been the advantage under Key, as the Yellow Jackets rank 12th nationally in Defensive Line Yards and top 50 in Rush Success Rate allowed, specializing in defending outside zone concepts (61% Success Rate).

Where Georgia Tech falls off defensively is in the secondary, ranking outside the top 85 nationally in Coverage grading and the creation of contested catches.

Georgia Bulldogs

Following a loss at Ole Miss, in which Georgia scored just 10 offensive points, it desperately needed scoring heading into the Week 12 contest with Tennessee.

The answer came in a 331-yard passing performance from Carson Beck, getting relief in drops and pressures. Georgia targets have dropped 25 passes this season, well more than in 2023, when Beck had attempted 20 more passes.

Pressures have been a consistent issue, but a solid Tennessee defensive line was held to just a single sack on Beck.

Consistency in drops and pressures continued in a route of UMass, as Beck connected with 10 different targets.

The Bulldogs have not fielded the defensive numbers seen over the past three seasons, but the numbers in passing downs have been consistent. Georgia ranks second nationally in Success Rate allowed when teams fall behind the chains, leading to a top 15 rank in third-down defense.

The Tennessee offense was held to no explosive drives and limited to just 4.4 net yards per play.

Coverage continues to be an issue despite the Bulldogs getting to full health on defense. Georgia ranks 117th nationally in passes defended but 17th in creating contested catches, a signal that the secondary may have had negative luck against the pass.

Georgia Tech vs. Georgia Pick

Georgia Tech has two top-ten victories this season, opening 2024 with a victory over Florida State and later on against Miami in ACC play.

The Yellow Jackets enter this rivalry with an extra day of rest after playing in a Thursday night barn burner against NC State in Week 13.

Conversely, Georgia will play this game shortly after defeating UMass on Saturday.

Georgia Tech has advantages in critical areas offensively, as Philo's passing game has filled in eloquently during King's recent injury concerns.

Georgia's sagging numbers in coverage and defensive quality drives indicate the Yellow Jackets will have scoring attempts. Both teams field top-15 third-down defenses, but the question remains if Georgia Tech can remain in standard downs.

The Yellow Jackets rank second overall in FBS in offensive momentum killer, a statistic designed to look at penalties, turnovers, missed field goals and other events that stop possessions.

The Yellow Jackets have been excellent in the first half this season, failing to trail at halftime in all seven victories. Conversely, Georgia has struggled through the scripted portion of the game.

The Bulldogs have a negative scoring differential this season through the first quarter of games, as the second-half differential is more than twice the first-half's.

Furthermore, Georgia Tech has covered in the first half in four of their past five games compared to a Georgia team that has covered the first half just once this season.

The Action Network Power Ratings call for Georgia to be favored by 19.5 points, which aligns with the current market.

There are plenty of reasons to believe the Bulldogs will come firing back on the Yellow Jackets after the scripted portion of the game.

Georgia Tech ranks 126th in pass rush, indicating Beck will have a clean pocket to set his feet and fire at numerous targets. Georgia Tech has also lost the overall yards per play battle in their last two wins over NC State and Miami.

Look for Faulkner and Philo to throw a few wrenches at the Georgia defense early, as the Bulldogs have consistent issues in the first half. A live wager on the Bulldogs will be necessary once adjustments are made.

Pick: Georgia Tech 1H +10.5

Saturday, Nov. 30

12 p.m. ET

FOX

Ohio State -21 · Over 43

The Michigan Wolverines (6-5, 4-4 Big Ten) will head to Columbus on Saturday to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1, 7-1) in one of the best rivalries in college football. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on FOX.

Can Michigan extend its winning streak to four straight in the 120th meeting of "The Game?" The Wolverines travel to Ohio Stadium to take on Ohio State 1 season removed from winning the National Championship.

While Michigan has underachieved expectations from a win-total perspective, the team up north has dominated the series in the backdrop of the Connor Stalions investigation.

Not only has Ohio State lost three straight, but the Buckeyes enter the contest as the 2nd-ranked team in the nation for the 4th consecutive time. Since the 2021 season, head coach Ryan Day has only lost to Oregon, Georgia, Missouri and Michigan.

Now, the roles are seemingly reversed as Ohio State opened as a -20.5 favorite with an over/under that has remained steady at 43.

Let's take a look at my Michigan vs. Ohio State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 30.

Michigan Wolverines

The Michigan offense had a breakout in a 50-point effort against Northwestern last week.

Led by the rushing attack with Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards, the Wolverines posted a 67% Success Rate on 34 rushing attempts.

Michigan more than doubled the Wildcats in overall yards per play, running just 19 plays in passing downs the entire game.

Head coach Sherrone Moore also got a valiant effort out of the defense, producing eight tackles for loss while limiting Northwestern to just eight first downs.

The performance was standard for the season under coordinator Wink Martindale. Martindale's D-line also comes in as the best pass rush in FBS, per PFF.

Where the offense has had issues creating explosives, the defense has been caught off guard by the big play.

Every passing analytic has taken a step back from the national title defense a year ago, ranking at the bottom of FBS teams in coverage grading and creating contested catches.

Ohio State Buckeyes

While Day preached a blue-collar mentality in developing a physical running game for multiple seasons, it was the hiring of offensive coordinator Chip Kelly that allowed the execution to take place.

The Buckeyes are not only a top-25 team in Success Rate and Line Yards but also in average distance before first contact.

Ohio State didn't see a drop-off in the offensive line play rate Indiana despite Connor Hinzman's move to center and Austin Siereveld's promotion to starter at guard.

Siereveld paid off the start, producing the highest run-blocking grade of all five starting linemen.

The MVP of the Indiana win was the Ohio State defense. The Buckeyes limited the Hoosiers to a minuscule 2.6 yards per play, gaining 21% of available yards with no explosive drives.

Quarterback Kurtis Rourke connected on just 8-of-18 passing attempts for 68 yards, while DC Jim Knowles flexed a top-15 Havoc rate by producing eight tackles for loss.

More impressive is the defense's No. 1 overall season rank in two of the most important statistics: Quality Drives allowed and Finishing Drives allowed.

Michigan vs. Ohio State Pick

Michigan likely won't enjoy the same success it experienced in Week 13 against Northwestern. The Wolverines utilize a heavy amount of inside zone and converted 12 of their 17 third- and fourth-down attempts against the Wildcats.

Ohio State has been better than average against inside zone, posting a season-long Success Rate of 54% against the run concept. The efficiency metric grows against man, a run concept Michigan uses as a wrinkle to zone read.

The biggest issue for Michigan is the defense's numbers against inside zone, posting a lowly 42% Success Rate against opponents using the run concept.

Henderson and quarterback Will Howard are frequent users of inside zone, as the Buckeyes have a massive 64% Success Rate with the run concept.

Expect the blue-collar run game to be on full display against the Michigan front. The Buckeyes' rank of 12th in Quality Drives should continue here.

Look for Day's motivation to continue as OSU seeks revenge for past results, the Stalions investigation and old Jim Harbaugh comments in a single game in Ohio Stadium.

Action Network's Betting Power Ratings make this game Ohio State -21, but the advantages are clearly in the Buckeyes' favor when it comes to the usage of inside zone.

The total in this game has hovered around 43 in early week wagering, as our projections place the game closer to 49. This series has seen at least 50 points in every iteration since 2012.

Pick: Ohio State -21 · Over 43

Saturday, Nov. 30

3:30 p.m. ET

ABC

Auburn +11.5 · Alabama 1Q -3.5

The Auburn Tigers (5-6, 2-5 SEC) make the trip to Tuscaloosa on Saturday to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide (8-3, 4-3) in another edition of the Iron Bowl. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

The Iron Bowl has been the scene of college football's most climactic performances over the past 15 years.

A last-second touchdown toss last season granted the Crimson Tide entry into the College Football Playoff before a subsequent 27-20 loss in the Rose Bowl to eventual champion Michigan.

However, nothing will top the "Kick Six" from 2013, as a 57-yard field goal attempt to end the game by Alabama resulted in a 109-yard game-winning return for Auburn.

The motivation for a win in this game did a complete 180-degree turn in Week 13. Auburn is now 1 victory away from bowl season, while Alabama's chances of an SEC and national title are all but gone.

Alabama has remained as a -11 favorite through early week investments with the over/under sitting at 52.5.

With the Iron Bowl kickoff inching closer, let's take a look at my Auburn vs. Alabama predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 30.

Auburn Tigers

Auburn could be peaking at the right time of the season after a victory over Texas A&M in Week 13.

Running back Jarquez Hunter continues to lead a gritty ground assault that ranks eighth in efficiency and 15th in Stuff Rate. The senior tallied three touchdowns on the Aggies, adding six missed tackles forced and five runs of at least 10 yards or more.

Hunter averages 4.2 yards after first contact, as Auburn prefers inside zone with a high 59% Success Rate.

The Tigers have been much more successful with the rush this season, but the emergence of a freshman wide receiver may change the outlook for quarterback Payton Thorne.

Wideout Cam Coleman has received nearly 40% of his season targets over the past two games against the Aggies and ULM. The Alabama native was a blue-chip prospect, ranked second in a group of wide receivers that included Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith of Ohio State and Alabama's Ryan Williams.

Coleman has averaged more than three yards per route run, providing head coach Hugh Freeze with a possession receiver and deep-threat weapon on the outside.

Defensive coordinator DJ Durkin's 3-3-5 unit has been fantastic against the rush, ranking top-five in Line Yards.

The issues have come against teams looking to use the passing game to move the chains and create scoring opportunities. The Tigers have fallen to 72nd in coverage grading, per PFF, a direct correlation to a mid-FBS number in passes defensed.

However, Auburn has limited teams with mobile quarterbacks — something that should translate to success in the Iron Bowl.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama's inconsistency continued in a Week 13 loss to Oklahoma. Every loss for the Crimson Tide has come away from Bryant-Denny Stadium, each with a direct correlation to a limited rushing attack for head coach Kalen DeBoer's offense.

Alabama sits outside the top 50 in Rushing Success Rate and has seen a major dip in an explosives number that resides outside the top 100.

An offensive line that has trouble keeping defenders out of the backfield has contributed to a rank of 88th in Havoc Allowed, often creating pressure and sacks for quarterback Jalen Milroe.

Teams that have limited Milroe in standard downs have found plenty of success when it comes to ending Alabama possessions.

Kane Wommack's nickel defense continues to be the backbone of the team, limiting Oklahoma to just two offensive touchdowns.

Alabama had lived up to top-10 ranks in Defensive Quality Drives and Defensive Finishing Drives in two previous SEC wins, allowing just 13 points to LSU and Missouri.

The scripted portion of the game continues to be a money-maker for the Crimson Tide defense. Outside of the Vanderbilt game, Alabama has allowed six total points in the first quarter of its six other SEC games.

Auburn vs. Alabama Pick

There's reason to believe Alabama will continue to struggle in creating a presence on the ground against Auburn. In the Tide's three SEC losses, Milroe has been held to less than a grand total of 30 rushing yards.

Auburn has shown the ability to shut down opposing mobile quarterbacks in prior conference games. Texas A&M's Marcel Reed gained just 47 yards on nine scrambles, while Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia racked up only 21 yards on 15 attempts.

Alabama's rank of 111th in Offensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate allowed means Milroe will need the passing game to put the Crimson Tide in scoring position.

Oklahoma found plenty of success in passing downs against the Tide. The Sooners converted 7-of-15 attempts on third down thanks to an average distance of 4.1 yards to go.

The emergence of Coleman at wideout will put a microscope on Alabama cornerback Domani Jackson, as the USC transfer has failed to record a pass breakup in his last five games.

Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for Alabama to be favored by 10, giving small value to the Tigers in the market.

Considering what Wommack and the Crimson Tide defense have done to opposing offenses in the first quarter, a live number on Auburn starting in the second quarter could be the better value over a pregame wager on the Tigers.

Pick: Auburn +11.5 · Alabama 1Q -3.5

Saturday, Nov. 30

7:30 p.m. ET

ABC

Texas A&M +5

The Texas Longhorns (10-1, 6-1 SEC) head to College Station on Saturday to take on the Texas A&M Aggies (8-3, 5-2) in a game with major SEC Championship implications. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Texas' move to the SEC gave the college football world the return of the Lone Star Showdown. Texas and Texas A&M will play for the first time since 2011.

The return of the biggest in-state brawl will have all the drama, as the winner will advance to Atlanta to compete for the SEC Championship.

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian enters the game on a 4-game winning streak, failing to cover all but 1 spread against an injured Florida team.

Meanwhile, Texas A&M is in prime position to win 2 straight and earn a bye in the College Football Playoff despite suffering 3 losses on the season.

Texas opened as a -6.5 favorite, a number that has seen steady Texas A&M money through 5. The over/under, meanwhile, sits at 49.

Let's dive into my Texas vs. Texas A&M predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 30.

Texas Longhorns

Quarterback Quinn Ewers will enter the game questionable with an ankle injury. Ewers attempted just five passes in the second half of a victory over Kentucky last week, as Sarkisian desired a run-heavy approach to limit injury.

Texas' only option for explosive plays comes from the passing game due to a rank of 117th in Rush EPA.

While the drop to backup quarterback Arch Manning would see a minimal change to Texas' power rating, a bigger concern is the lack of clean possessions. Texas ranks 87th in offensive momentum killer, a statistic that summarizes a possession's interruption by turnovers, missed field goals, sacks and 10-plus yard penalties.

On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski's nickel defense has earned a top-five rank in almost every analytic.

If there's an area where Texas could improve, it's against the rush, as the Longhorns sit outside the top 45 in Success Rate and Line Yards.

While the interior has been the target of rushing opponents, tackle grading is down from last year's unit. The Longhorns rank 93rd in broken tackles allowed, indicating Texas A&M could gain extra yards in space.

Texas A&M Aggies

Texas A&M assembled one of the best defensive lines with the help of the transfer portal, specifically edge Nic Scourton. The Aggies rank top-10 in Defensive Havoc, thanks to a top-25 pass rush and a top-five secondary in pass breakups.

One area of concern comes against the rush, as Auburn chipped away on the ground to record 46 plays in standard downs compared to 26 in passing downs.

Those issues were the biggest contributors to a blowout at the hands of South Carolina, as the Gamecocks posted a 61% Success Rate on 43 rushing attempts.

The offense has transformed under freshman quarterback Marcel Reed. While the mobile quarterback has bumped the rushing statistics for the Aggies, the passing numbers have spiraled.

Texas A&M ranks 128th in On-Target Rate, a measurement of hitting desired receivers in stride.

The offensive line's consistent issues with protection have hindered Reed, who has seen a combined 38 pressures in recent losses to South Carolina and Auburn.

Texas vs. Texas A&M Pick

The Aggies have struggled on defense in terms of giving up the big play on early downs.

Texas A&M is highly successful at getting opponents behind schedule with a top-five Success Rate, but the plays that are successful against the Aggies have been gashers.

This may be an area Texas is unable to expose with a lackluster Rush EPA number.

The Longhorns run a heavy amount of outside zone with Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue. Texas A&M has specialized in shutting down outside zone this season with a 62% Success Rate.

In fact, edge Shemar Stewart is one of the highest-graded run defenders in FBS.

Once Texas is in passing downs, Elko's nickel defense can send additional blitz. The secondary has poor grading in coverage, per PFF, but a contested catch rate of third nationally indicates an aggressive style of ball-hawking.

Ewers hasn't been the most accurate over the second half of the season, falling to 41st in creating catchable balls.

Pick: Texas A&M +5 or Better

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