College Football Pace Report, Picks for Week 9: Value on Oregon vs. Utah, Louisiana vs. South Alabama
Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Oregon running back Bucky Irving (left) and quarterback Bo Nix (right).
Week 9 of the college football season is here, and while there's only one ranked-on-ranked matchup, I see value on it from a betting perspective.
In fact, we have more data on teams now that we're getting into the heart of the college football schedule. That's a great benefit, especially in the totals market.
With Week 9 rapidly approaching, here are the pace numbers for each team through Week 8:
If you're new to this piece, we'll take an in-depth look at the totals market using yards per play, Success Rate, Finishing Drives, plays per minute and more.
Using those metrics — along with a look at the weather and key injuries — the goal is to hopefully help bettors beat the market before Friday and Saturday morning.
Let's kick things off with two over/unders to bet in Week 9.
Oregon vs. Utah
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | -270 |
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | +220 |
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This game has the potential to be a defensive slugfest.
Oregon is one of the best offenses in the country from a consistency standpoint, but it doesn't break off too many big plays. The Ducks are second in Success Rate but 73rd in explosiveness.
Bo Nix is having a great season and currently leads college football in completion percentage, but that's because all of his throws are short. Over 70% of Nix's pass attempts this season have been under 10 yards in the air.
Oregon has been incredibly efficient in its short passing game, but this is the best secondary it's seen this season. Utah just held reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams to 7.3 yards per attempt, zero touchdowns and a PFF passing grade of 68.6.
For the season, Utah ranks 11th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and second in passing explosiveness allowed. Nix may have a high completion percentage, but it's all going to come on short passes that Utah is incredibly capable of defending.
That means the pressure is going to be on the Oregon rushing attack to take over this game. The Ducks boast one of the best rushing attacks in the country behind Bucky Irving, who's averaging 7.5 yards per carry.
However, the average yards-per-carry-allowed mark of Oregon opponents sits at 4.5, so it hasn't faced a really good rush defense like the one Utah has.
On the other side, the Utah offense has been abysmal, to say the least. The Utes are averaging only 4.9 yards per play while ranking 109th in EPA/Play and 118th in Finishing Drives.
Bryson Barnes may have had a good game against that terrible USC secondary, but in the four games he's started this season, he's averaging just 7.1 yards per attempt while making only three big-time throws compared to five turnover-worthy plays. Plus, he holds an EPA/Pass mark of just -0.12.
So, that's probably why Utah is running the ball on 63% of its offensive plays.
However, the rushing attack hasn't been that efficient either. The Utes average only 4.1 yards per carry as a team while ranking 83rd in EPA/Rush and 98th in Offensive Line Yards.
With two teams that are likely going to run the ball a lot without throwing it downfield, I think this will be a very low-scoring game.
Plus, both of these teams are playing at a slow pace from a second-per-play standpoint, so I like the value on under 49 points.
Louisiana vs. South Alabama
| Louisiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -120 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +315 |
| South Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -102 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -410 |
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With how efficient these two offenses have been, this total is too low.
Louisiana starting quarterback Ben Wooldridge went down with a foot injury at the beginning of the UAB game on Sept. 16, but Zeon Chriss has performed admirably as the starter.
While Chriss is a below-average passer, his ability on the ground really makes the Ragin' Cajuns' rushing attack incredibly deadly. Chriss is coming off a 130-yard performance against Georgia State last weekend and is averaging 9.5 yards per attempt.
Eighteen of his 36 carries have gone for over 10 yards, per PFF, which is an insane number for someone who entered the season as a backup quarterback.
Starting running back Jacob Kibodi is having a fine season as well, averaging over seven yards per carry. This duo has Louisiana inside the top 20 in both Rushing Success Rate and EPA/Rush.
They should be able to dominate South Alabama in the trenches, as the Jaguars come in at 115th in Stuff Rate and 60th in Defensive Line Yards.
The flip side, though, is I'm not sure how Louisiana stops South Alabama. The Ragin' Cajuns rank 115th in Success Rate Allowed, 79th in EPA/Play Allowed and 110th in Finishing Drives Allowed.
The massive problem in this matchup is they can't stop the run to save their lives. Louisiana sits 120th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 101st in EPA/Rush Allowed and dead last in college football in Stuff Rate. All of that is a terrible combination against a top-10 rushing attack.
South Alabama running back La'Damian Webb is having a fantastic season, carrying the ball for a 5.6 yards per carry average and helping the Jaguars rank sixth in EPA/Rush and fourth in rushing explosiveness.
In their last two games against bad rush defenses in Louisiana Monroe and Southern Miss, the Jaguars have compiled just short of 500 yards rushing. They should be able to torch another bad rush defense on Saturday.
It's not just about the rushing attack for South Alabama, though, because Carter Bradley has been slinging it all over the field. He's averaging 8.7 yards per attempt and ranks 23rd in college football in passing EPA.
The reason he's been so good is because the offensive line in front of him has done a great job of protecting him, allowing a pressure rate of just 17.2%. Louisiana sits 122nd in pressure rate on the defensive side of the ball, so Bradley is going to have all day to throw.
With two incredibly efficient offenses going head-to-head, I think we have a high-scoring affair on our hands. I like the value on over 52.5 points.
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