Wake Forest vs. Old Dominion Odds, Picks: Deacs to Win Big?

Let's take a trip down to Ballard Stadium in Norfolk, Virginia, for this ACC/Sun Belt clash between the Wake Forest Demon Deacons and the Old Dominion Monarchs.

Both of these teams are coming off of victories, which is a nice surprise for the Monarchs, who entered the 2023 season with low expectations.

This is an interesting game to handicap, and without digging into any numbers, you'd presume to see some points in this matchup. But as always, let's dig right in and find the correct betting angle.

I wasn't too high on this Deacons team heading into the year, but they've proven thus far that they don't need Sam Hartman to win football games. Granted they've defeated Vanderbilt and Elon, but I'd say it's still a good sign for things to come.

This ground attack seems to be the offensive identity that Dave Clawson wants to continue to lean on. Wake rushed for over 280 yards last week, and RB Demond Claiborne is averaging over 5.5 YPC thus far this season.

I don't expect a change in the offensive game plan this week, as the Monarchs are 86th in Rushing Success Rate.

If this ground attack gets going, this will open up some opportunities to attack this Monarchs secondary, which is 124th in Passing Success Rate and 131st in Havoc Allowed. I think we will see a lot of play-action from Wake once Claiborne gets cooking.

The defense has held its own thus far, but I do have concerns that it very well could've been opponent-based. But numbers are numbers, right?

If the Monarchs try attacking through the air, I expect Wake to shut most of it down. According to PFF, this unit is second in coverage and 29th in tackling.

The run defense is the Achilles heel of this unit, and I expect the Monarchs to try and establish the run from the get-go. If the run defense steps up and forces the Monarchs into non-standard down situations, I think this will set up another solid performance.

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The Monarchs are already exceeding expectations this season, as this was a team that entered the 2023 season with a 3.5-win total. The 38-31 victory over Louisiana spoke volumes about their offense moving forward.

Let's face it: the Monarchs will have to ride the coattails of their offense the rest of the season if they want to have any sort of miraculous bowl aspirations. This is a team that's currently 12th in Rushing Success Rate, 16th in Line Yards and 23rd in Offensive Finishing Drives.

I expect the Monarchs to run the ball pretty heavily here, as the Wake defense is 90th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate. If they want to win this game outright, I believe this will be the path.

I expect a lot of burning clocks, and if they can find themselves past the opposing 40-yard line, I would expect them to end up in the end zone. QB Grant Wilson isn't exactly what you call a gunslinger, so as long as he's protecting the ball I believe they can hang tough.

As for the defense … woof. This Monarchs team will have their hands full. Their defensive metrics are not pretty, and most notably they're 131st in Havoc Allowed. If Wake QB Mitch Griffis is in the pocket all afternoon, it's going to be a long day for the Monarchs.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wake Forest and Old Dominion match up statistically:

Wake Forest Offense vs. Old Dominion Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	51	86
Line Yards	33	50
Pass Success	59	124
Havoc	36	131
Finishing Drives	59	88
Quality Drives	38	122

Old Dominion Offense vs. Wake Forest Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	12	90
Line Yards	16	66
Pass Success	102	77
Havoc	99	18
Finishing Drives	23	83
Quality Drives	111	37

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	29	45
PFF Coverage	2	120
Special Teams SP+	39	99
Middle 8	11	98
Seconds per Play	27.0 (68)	24.0 (21)
Rush Rate	59.7% (42)	63.9% (44)

I usually hate laying a large number with a road team that I still have some questions about, but I think we have no choice other than to ride with Wake here.

Look, the Monarchs are riding high off of their win last week, but this isn't Louisiana. I think this is setting up for a huge day for the Wake offense.

I do expect a lot of running here, so the clock should be moving. That's what's keeping me away from this, so I'd rather swallow the points with the road team here.

Keep an eye on the injury report; Wake LB Chase Jones is questionable with an undisclosed injury. Regardless, I like Wake to get the job done and move to 3-0. I'd wait as long as possible to see if you can grab a -13.5 before kick, but I still like the Deacs at the current number.