Toledo vs Ball State Odds
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -900 |
| Ball State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +600 |
As we move closer to weekday MACtion, teams in the conference return to the field this weekend, and we'll be treated to Ball State vs. Toledo Saturday afternoon.
The Cardinals sit at the bottom of the conference standings, while the Rockets have won five straight and own a perfect 2-0 mark in conference play.
On paper, this looks like a big mismatch, and I believe the visitors will dominate and keep their spot atop the standings.
Toledo Rockets
In his ninth season with the program, head coach Jason Candle leads a veteran team.
The key returnee was quarterback Dequan Finn, who was the MVP of both the MAC Championship game and the Boca Raton Bowl last season. Finn is leading what's shaping up to be the best offense in the conference.
Toledo leads the league in multiple categories, including yards per game (473.2), points per game (40.8), first downs (143) and third-down conversions (51.3%).
Outside of Finn, another key performer on the offensive side of the ball is his favorite target, Jerjuan Newton. The receiver has already racked up nine touchdown catches and has found the end zone in every game this season.
The defense has done a good job limiting opponents’ points once they put together a solid drive. Toledo ranks inside the top 20 among non-Power Five teams in Defensive Finishing Drives and is 20th in the country in red zone defense.
Ball State Cardinals
In coach Mike Neu’s fifth season with the school, Ball State won both the conference championship and a bowl game.
However, the Cardinals have been on a decline since.
The Cardinals were able to make a bowl in 2021, but a losing season last year — combined with a tough start this year — is not what the fans were looking for.
The challenging non-conference schedule — which included No. 1 Georgia — certainly didn't help. Neu’s team also went on the road to face Kentucky and played host to a strong Georgia Southern squad.
Another problem has been Ball State's inability to find a consistent player at the quarterback position. Neu has flipped between Layne Hatcher and Kadin Semonza, though Hatcher has received most of the playing time in the two MAC games.
Toledo vs Ball State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Toledo and Ball State match up statistically:
Toledo Offense vs. Ball State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 24 | 55 | |
| Line Yards | 8 | 71 | |
| Pass Success | 20 | 98 | |
| Havoc | 25 | 103 | |
| Finishing Drives | 4 | 97 | |
| Quality Drives | 34 | 117 | |
Ball State Offense vs. Toledo Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 117 | 96 | |
| Line Yards | 90 | 83 | |
| Pass Success | 89 | 47 | |
| Havoc | 129 | 62 | |
| Finishing Drives | 115 | 41 | |
| Quality Drives | 101 | 46 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 10 | 54 |
| PFF Coverage | 12 | 89 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 65 | 114 |
| Middle 8 | 21 | 97 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.7 (45) | 28.8 (99) |
| Rush Rate | 60.8% (10) | 49.7% (99) |
Toledo vs Ball State
Betting Pick & Prediction
This season, neither of these team have been very profitable to bet on, as both boast losing records against the spread.
I’m going to avoid those trends, but will still back the visitors in this spot.
My best bet is for Toledo to fly over its team total of 31.5 points at DraftKings, and I'd play that up to 33.5.
The Rockets have gone over this total in four of six games, including the two against MAC competition. Meanwhile, this would've also cashed for four of the Cardinals’ opponents this season.
I also like how good Toledo is at cashing in on scoring opportunities. Candle’s team is inside the top 10 among non-Power Five teams in Finishing Drives and is eighth in the FBS in red zone scoring.
This gives the Rockets a clear advantage over a Ball State defense that's outside the top 100 in both categories.
