Wyoming vs Air Force Odds
| Wyoming Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -400 |
Let's head out to Colorado Springs, where the Air Force Falcons will host the Wyoming Cowboys. This is one of the games I immediately circled after last week, as the Cowboys are coming off an impressive home win against Fresno State.
Air Force is coming off of a bye and looking to remain undefeated here at home.
I have a pretty strong conviction on this game, so let's dive into the matchup and uncover a Wyoming vs. Air Force best bet.
Wyoming Cowboys
Despite a pretty even box score, the Cowboys pulled some Laramie magic when they upset Fresno State last week. Wyoming was in control from the beginning, but seemed to let its foot off the gas and almost collapsed in the second half.
I have concerns about Wyoming's offense against Air Force's defense. Air Force is vulnerable against the run, but the Cowboys aren't too successful on the ground despite ranking 25th in rush rate.
If the ground game isn't working, Wyoming will turn to its aerial attack, which isn't the best idea against Air Force's secondary. This offense is also a complete snail, so there could be a lot of methodical drives that result in few points.
Defensively, Wyoming will be tasked with trying to slow down an extremely efficient Air Force offense. Wyoming comes in at 91st in Defensive Quality Drives, which is bad news against a triple-option offense.
This is an awful spot for the Cowboys, who are probably flying high after their big home win. But if Wyoming manages to pull off a big win here, it'll be in the driver's seat in the Mountain West.
Air Force Falcons
I don't like laying large numbers with service academy teams, but this would be the spot to do so. Coming off of a bye, I expect an extremely focused effort from the Falcons.
Digging into the offensive metrics, the Falcons are elite in almost every category. This is the No. 1 team in the nation in Finishing Drives and Passing Success Rate, and it sits second in Havoc Allowed.
Additionally, Air Force is seventh in Rushing Success Rate and sixth in Line Yards. Yup, I'd say that's pretty good.
The Falcons are also a complete snail on offense, which is typical of a service academy.
Defensively, Air Force is the No. 1 team in the nation in PFF tackle grading. That shouldn't be too surprising because service academy teams tend to be extremely disciplined.
The most important stat of this handicap is that Air Force is 12th in the nation in Defensive Quality Drives. As a result, I have a hard time seeing how the Cowboys develop any sort of offensive rhythm.
Wyoming vs Air Force
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wyoming and Air Force match up statistically:
Wyoming Offense vs. Air Force Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 72 | 102 | |
| Line Yards | 70 | 58 | |
| Pass Success | 78 | 14 | |
| Havoc | 49 | 44 | |
| Finishing Drives | 65 | 72 | |
| Quality Drives | 57 | 12 | |
Air Force Offense vs. Wyoming Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 7 | 47 | |
| Line Yards | 3 | 96 | |
| Pass Success | 1 | 75 | |
| Havoc | 2 | 50 | |
| Finishing Drives | 1 | 59 | |
| Quality Drives | 6 | 91 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 106 | 1 |
| PFF Coverage | 43 | 13 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 22 | 11 |
| Middle 8 | 81 | 19 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.2 (120) | 33.2 (133) |
| Rush Rate | 59.4% (25) | 94.1% (1) |
Wyoming vs Air Force
Betting Pick & Prediction
I absolutely love the under in this game. This is a letdown spot for the Cowboys, and I could definitely see them struggle to sustain drives against Air Force's defense.
Both of these teams are snails on offense, and there should be a ton of running plays. There's always a fear that Air Force could break off a bunch of explosive runs, but I think we'll see more methodical, time-consuming drives.
This total continues to drop, so I'd grab it ASAP. Let's hope the Air Force defense comes out sharp after the bye.
