Sam Houston vs New Mexico State Odds
| Sam Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
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Wednesday night brings with it a Conference USA matchup between the Sam Houston Bearkats (0-5) and New Mexico State Aggies (3-3) in Las Cruces.
This is a brand-new conference matchup, as Sam Houston continues its first year in CUSA and FBS. This adjustment has been tough for the Bearkats, but I believe this team is better than their 0-5 record shows due to the brutal schedule they've faced.
Let’s take a look at where I think the edge is for Sam Houston vs. New Mexico in this college football betting preview for Wednesday, Oct. 11.
Sam Houston Bearkats
The first thing you would notice when looking to handicap this game is how terrible the Sam Houston offense appears. It ranks 133rd in SP+ offensively and also sits dead last in Offensive Success Rate. The Bearkats are also 131st in Passing Success Rate and 132nd in Rushing Success Rate.
It would be an understatement to say that things have not gone well for them on this side of the ball.
However, the strength of schedule they've played is partly to blame for this. SHSU has played games against BYU, Air Force, Houston, Jacksonville State and Liberty. These teams all have strong defenses, and most of them have players who compete at a much higher level than what Sam Houston will be facing this weekend.
Against teams with a similar talent level, we saw Sam Houston take Jacksonville State to overtime before falling by a touchdown. In that game, SHSU posted a Success Rate 41st percentile, which is its highest mark of the season.
Liberty also defeated SHSU by just five points, but the Bearkats had a 33rd-percentile Offensive Success Rate.
Neither of those numbers are fantastic, but I think they show that this offense isn’t completely inept against teams that aren’t outmatching them physically.
The defensive side of the ball has been the bright spot for the Bearkats. Despite playing a tough schedule, they still rank 62nd defensively, per SP+.
The Kats rank 49th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 46th against the run. Their 80.4 PFF tackling grade — which ranks 22nd in the country — will come in handy against this New Mexico State running attack.
New Mexico State Aggies
New Mexico State has run the ball at the 24th-highest rate in FBS, resulting in the country's third-best Success Rate and fourth-best PPA.
This gives the appearance that this team has improved, but I think its success can be attributed to the schedule it's faced. The Aggies have played only one team this season with a defense that ranks in the top 115 in SP+. The rushing defenses for these teams have all been particularly poor as well.
I do think there's a chance that we see this rushing attack shine through, but I also think there's a chance it could be stymied by a Sam Houston defense that's one of the best it's faced this year.
On the defensive side of the ball, New Mexico State has not been quite as good. The Aggies rank 107th in Success Rate and 91st in Finishing Drives. They're 102nd in Success Rate against the pass and 97th against the run, so they don’t have a particular strength to lean on here.
This unit ranks 128th in the country, per SP+, so it will be the worst defense that Sam Houston has faced this year by far.
Sam Houston vs New Mexico State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Sam Houston and New Mexico State match up statistically:
Sam Houston Offense vs New Mexico State Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 132 | 99 | |
| Line Yards | 131 | 49 | |
| Pass Success | 131 | 105 | |
| Havoc | 88 | 42 | |
| Finishing Drives | 125 | 91 | |
| Quality Drives | 133 | 93 | |
New Mexico State Offense vs Sam Houston Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 3 | 45 | |
| Line Yards | 1 | 100 | |
| Pass Success | 69 | 78 | |
| Havoc | 47 | 129 | |
| Finishing Drives | 67 | 53 | |
| Quality Drives | 44 | 48 |  |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 22 | 128 |
| PFF Coverage | 74 | 110 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 98 | 58 |
| Middle 8 | 120 | 76 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.7 (96) | 31.3 (130) |
| Rush Rate | 50.8% (90) | 59.0% (22) |
Sam Houston vs New Mexico State
Betting Prediction, Pick
Sam Houston has had a tough start to its FBS transition, but the Bearkats' schedule has done them no favors. New Mexico State’s defense will give SHSU some breathing room, so I believe it will post its best offensive performance of the season.
This Bearkats defense has been suffocating, even against the much more talented teams on their schedule. While the NMSU rushing attack gives me some pause, Sam Houston’s defense is strong and should give the Aggies some trouble.
I like SHSU getting three and the hook here. This team will be competitive and may even find a way to pick up its first win since moving up to the FBS ranks.
