Bowling Green vs Miami (OH) Odds
| Bowling Green Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 42.5 -115o / -105u | +280 |
| Miami (OH) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 42.5 -115o / -105u | -350 |
Welcome to Miami… of Ohio. We have the Bowling Green Falcons hitting the road to take on the Miami (OH) RedHawks in Saturday afternoon college football action.
The Falcons are coming off a stunning win over Georgia Tech, whereas the RedHawks are coming off a dominant 23-3 win over Kent State.
Things tend to get pretty wild during MACtion, so let's not waste time and break down both of these teams.
Bowling Green Falcons
The college football world was stunned by the Falcons' offensive explosion last week, as they entered the game with one of the worst offenses in the entire FBS. Quarterback Connor Bazalek had a decent game through the air, throwing for two touchdowns and 261 yards.
Diving into the box score, the yardage was pretty even from both the Falcons and Yellow Jackets, so this might have been a fluky win. Bowling Green still enters this matchup with ugly offensive metrics, specifically in the Havoc department where it ranks in the bottom 30.
I don't expect this offense to continue to have success, especially in this matchup against the RedHawks. You could argue they have the best defense in the entire MAC, and they're especially good at creating Havoc.
The BGSU offense is also an absolute snail, as it continues to be one of the slowest teams in the country. To me, this smells like a lot of time-consuming drives without any points being contributed to the scoreboard.
As for the defense, it doesn't get much better. This is a unit that ranks in the bottom 30 in Passing Success Rate and Line Yards. I wouldn't expect them to get much of a push against this RedHawks offensive line.
The Falcons had their fun against the Yellow Jackets last week, but I don't see a path to victory in this one.
Miami RedHawks
I already spoke about this RedHawks defense, but this unit continues to impress week after week. I know Kent State's offense is a dumpster fire, but holding a conference opponent to three points is always impressive.
RedHawks QB Brett Gabbert continues to be shaky, but he's done enough to lead this team to a 4-1 record. I expect him to have success against this disastrous Falcons secondary throughout the afternoon.
There's a lot to like about this RedHawks offense, as they seem to protect the ball relatively well and get a constant push from the offensive trench. This is probably the most balanced team in the MAC outside of Toledo, but you can argue the RedHawks' schedule has been much more challenging thus far.
In this matchup, we know the RedHawks love to be methodical on offense. They're a snail just like the Falcons, so I think the clock will be moving quickly for the majority of this game.
To me, this smells like a grind-it-out type of game for the RedHawks, where Gabbert will not be asked to do too much. I expect them to rely on the backfield tandem of Rashad Amos and Kenny Tracy to move the chains in those short-yardage situations.
Bowling Green vs Miami (OH)
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Bowling Green and Miami (OH) match up statistically:
Bowling Green Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 95 | 47 | |
| Line Yards | 99 | 107 | |
| Pass Success | 101 | 92 | |
| Havoc | 127 | 45 | |
| Finishing Drives | 104 | 71 | |
| Quality Drives | 118 | 63 | |
Miami (OH) Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 68 | 86 | |
| Line Yards | 44 | 121 | |
| Pass Success | 58 | 121 | |
| Havoc | 46 | 68 | |
| Finishing Drives | 46 | 60 | |
| Quality Drives | 27 | 88 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 18 | 110 |
| PFF Coverage | 79 | 77 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 114 | 1 |
| Middle 8 | 29 | 105 |
| Seconds per Play | 31.0 (128) | 29.8 (114) |
| Rush Rate | 53.3% (76) | 59.9% (35) |
Bowling Green vs Miami (OH)
Betting Pick & Prediction
Normally, I would lean toward the RedHawks in this spot, especially with Bowling Green flying high after a huge win. However, I absolutely love the under in this game.
By the time you read this article, I would not be surprised if this number had already fallen a few points, so I would take it before it drops any further.
Besides the fact that both of these offenses are complete snails, there's too much to like about this matchup for the RedHawks defense. I expect them to put the Falcons in a ton of third-and-long situations, especially with the amount of Havoc they create.
I am worried that the Falcons defense could get absolutely gashed here, but I doubt that will be much of a factor considering they could easily get blanked on the scoreboard.
Take the under with confidence here, and I would run to the window before the number continues to sink.
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