Clemson vs Notre Dame Pick
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| Clemson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
Find a college football betting guide and a Clemson vs Notre Dame pick below.
Clemson looks to stop the bleeding and get above .500 with it hosts Notre Dame on Saturday.
Notre Dame is coming off an absolute dismantling of Pittsburgh after beating them 58-7 in South Bend. Notre Dame can't make the College Football Playoff with two losses, but they did beat Clemson 35-14 last season in South Bend, and I am sure they would love to continue to kick the Tigers while they're down.
It's been 12 years since the last time the Tigers lost four games in the season, and Dabo Swinney isn't handling it very well. The offense is struggling mightily to score points after failing to score more than 20 in three straight games. The question is, with all of the talent on the field and players brought in to compete for national titles, how motivated are they for this game?
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Sam Hartman may not be putting up crazy numbers like many of us were expecting coming into the season, but he has been putting up really solid numbers.
Hartman is averaging 9.5 yards per attempt, has a 50.4% positive EPA play percentage (17th in FBS), and has 17 big-time throws (10th in FBS). What makes Hartman so good is his ability to throw the deep ball. On passes over 20+ yards in the air, Hartman has a 94.6 PFF passing grade, which is one of the best marks in the nation.
image via PFF
The real reason Hartman has been so successful is because the pressure is not 100% on his shoulders given how good the Notre Dame rushing attack has been this season. The Irish are 31st in Rushing Success Rate behind lead back Audric Estime. Estime is averaging an absurd 6.2 yards per carry with 4.21 yards coming after contact.
He has a 0.15 EPA/Play mark, which ranks 10th in FBS, and has forced 42 missed tackles.
Notre Dame's defense has been outstanding this season, allowing only 4.5 yards per play and ranking 15th in success rate allowed. If you want to poke holes on where they've struggled, it's giving up explosive plays, ranking 76th in explosiveness allowed. However, Clemson is 117th in explosive plays this season, so the Irish should be fine.
The star of the Notre Dame defense has been their secondary. They are top 15 in both passing success rate allowed and EPA/Pass allowed and held Heisman trophy winner Caleb Williams to just 199 yards passing a few weeks ago. However, the biggest thing for Notre Dame is they are a top 20 defense in both finishing drives allowed and quality drives allowed, which is massive against a Clemson offense that is outside the top 90 in both of those categories.
Clemson Tigers
If you want to know where the problems lie for Clemson, look no further than their ability to finish off scoring drives. Clemson is 95th in finishing drives, averaging just 3.6 points on drives that end inside the opponents 40 yard line.
You can also put a lot of the blame on Cade Klubnik, who has been a below average quarterback this season. Klubnik has a -0.07 EPA/Play rating this season, which is 103rd in the FBS for quarterbacks that have attempted at least 100 passes. The problem is really everything. He can't throw the ball effectively down the field and it doesn't really matter what type of concept they've put him in because he's struggled in every one of them.
image via PFF
The other problem is, if Clemson falls behind, they are forced to put the ball in Klubnik's hand, which has not gone well. Their last game against NC State is a perfect example. Once the Tigers fell behind, Klubnik ended up attempting 51 passes, but only for 263 total yards and threw two interceptions.
The rushing attack hasn't really been that effective, either. They only averaged 3.4 yards per carry against NC State and, for the season, are outside the 60 in both EPA/Rush and rushing explosiveness. Will Shipley is averaging 4.6 yards per carry but has a -0.10 EPA/Play mark this season, and the offensive line is also outside the top 70 in stuff rate allowed.
The Clemson defense has been playing very well this season, though. The Tigers are only allowing 4.4 yards per play (12th in FBS), rank 14th in success rate allowed, and 15th in EPA/Play allowed.
However, one area that they've struggled is giving up big plays in the run game. Clemson is 103rd in rushing explosiveness allowed, which is bad news with Estime lining across from them.
While the defense has been good from a success rate standpoint versus the run and the pass, ranking 49th in finishing drives allowed is a big concern for their ability to keep points off the board against this Notre Dame offense.
Notre Dame vs Clemson
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Notre Dame and Clemson match up statistically:
Notre Dame Offense vs. Clemson Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 31 | 5 | |
| Line Yards | 46 | 27 | |
| Pass Success | 22 | 5 | |
| Havoc | 26 | 8 | |
| Finishing Drives | 18 | 49 | |
| Quality Drives | 37 | 19 | |
Clemson Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 27 | 20 | |
| Line Yards | 45 | 30 | |
| Pass Success | 42 | 11 | |
| Havoc | 43 | 64 | |
| Finishing Drives | 90 | 18 | |
| Quality Drives | 95 | 16 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 53 | 16 |
| PFF Coverage | 9 | 17 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 64 | 84 |
| Middle 8 | 34 | 49 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.7 (117) | 24.6 (22) |
| Rush Rate | 54.3% (49) | 49.0% (100) |
Notre Dame vs Clemson
Betting Pick & Prediction
In terms of a buy low/sell high opportunity, the side here is Clemson, but I don't know if we've reached the bottom yet for the Tigers. Notre Dame clearly has the better quarterback and rushing attack in this matchup and I have real question marks about Klubnik's ability to throw on this Notre Dame secondary.
Clemson hasn't been able to move the ball effectively their last three games, but they've been able to score once they get inside the opponents 40 yard line. If they are not able to do that successfully against Notre Dame, I am not sure how they cover this number at home, unless the Tigers defense saves them time and time again.
I have Notre Dame projected at -6.7, so I like the value on the Irish at -3 (BetMGM).
