For the fifth straight season on our college football betting podcast (Big Bets on Campus), Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
For Conference Championship Weekend, we're both rolling with a pair of pups on Saturday afternoon. If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pays out just under 7-1 odds.
- 2018-21: 49-83 +4.1 units
- 2022: 11-13 +6.18 units
- Overall: 58-96 +10.28 units
Wilson: Ohio +130
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Ohio Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
Two teams headed in opposite directions will meet at Ford Field for the 2022 MAC Championship. Look no further than the betting market for evidence.
Ohio has covered eight straight, while Toledo has dropped five in a row against the number.
Most importantly, Toledo quarterback Dequan Finn has not fully healed from an ankle injury. He tried to come into the game last week but got benched after going 5-for-11 with two interceptions. He simply had no mobility, which makes him ineffective.
Meanwhile, backup Tucker Gleason, who went 13-for-38 with no big-time throws last week, has a broken hand. He's also a completely different quarterback than Finn and doesn't provide the same upside.
In his press conference, Ohio head coach Tim Albin talked about shutting down the run first, which is the right approach against Toledo for a Bobcat defense that has continued to improve as the season has progressed.
Ohio also has a backup quarterback playing because MAC Offensive Player of the Year Kurtis Rourke is out for the year. However, backup CJ Harris looked more than capable in the division-clinching win to close out the regular season.
Harris seemed to have a firm grasp of the offense and doesn't have a turnover-worthy throw across 33 passing attempts. He's also very dangerous with his legs in the option game.
With running back Sieh Banguara now at full strength, the Ohio ground game can do enough against a very stout Toledo defense.
Ohio also has an edge in Havoc and does a great job limiting explosive plays. I think the Bobcats pull off the mini upset and win their first title since 1968.
Also, underdogs have gone 12-4-1 ATS (75%) in the MAC title game since 2005.
Pick: Ohio ML +130 |
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Stuckey: Coastal Carolina +260
| Coastal Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | +260 |
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | -335 |
This is pretty simple for me. My favorite type of moneyline underdog is one in a game with a lot of uncertainty.
This Sun Belt title game certainly fits that mold with questions surrounding the status of star Coastal Carolina quarterback Grayson McCall, who has been one of the most productive signal-callers in the nation this season with 21 touchdowns and just one interception.
Meanwhile, backup Jarrett Guest went 19-for-43 with one touchdown and four interceptions in two starts. The drop-off is massive — arguably 11-plus points between the two.
Therefore, if the rumors of McCall potentially coming back from injury to start this game are true, this moneyline has plenty of value.
I think Coastal can run it a bit against a very good Troy defense. And if McCall can go, he's a third-down maestro, which could spell trouble for a Trojans defense that has struggled on money downs this season.
Troy's offense also lacks explosiveness and struggles to build margin. Coastal's defense isn't anything to write home about, but it can generate pressure. That element could end a few Troy drives, especially when considering the Trojans rank 122nd in Passing Downs Sack Rate.
Lastly, for what it's worth, Sun Belt home-field advantage continues to be overvalued in the market.
Since 2005, Sun Belt home teams in league play have gone just 292-384-8 (43%) ATS, failing to cover by 1.6 points per game. That includes a very poor 22-34 mark this season with a -2.6 average coverage margin.
Give me the upside of McCall starting in the Fun Belt title game.
Pick: Coastal Carolina ML +260 |
