College Football Futures & Picks: Who Has the Easiest Path to College Football Playoff?
Getty Images: Pictured (left to right): Florida State’s Jordan Travis, Oregon’s Bo Nix and Georgia’s Carson Beck.
Stealing a quote from college basketball, the Week 8 college football slate was full of “survive and advance” games.
After beating rival Oregon in Week 7, Washington and Heisman favorite Michael Penix Jr. hosted an Arizona State team with just a single win on the season.
The Huskies trailed most of the game, needing defensive assistance to secure a 15-7 win in Seattle. Washington was held to just three explosive passes but continues on in the pole position of the Pac-12.
Ohio State, meanwhile, survived a top-10 tilt with Penn State, never trailing in the one-possession victory. The Buckeyes held in check an already limited Nittany Lions offense, making the regular-season conclusion with Michigan the biggest game left on the college football calendar.
The final score indicates that Florida State blew out a top-25 Duke team, as quarterback Riley Leonard played through injury. However, the Blue Devils dominated on the ground, taking a lead into halftime before the Seminoles piled on 21 fourth-quarter points.
The Big 12 also saw a survive-and-advance weekend, with both Oklahoma and Texas surviving one-possession games against UCF and Houston, respectively.
With no clear team dominating situational spots, Week 9 serves as a temperature check for teams in the race to win the College Football Playoff.
This article will take a brief look at the contenders, their remaining schedule and their chances of finishing the season undefeated.
Georgia Bulldogs
Remaining Sweep: 77%
Projections:
- vs. Florida +15
- vs. Missouri +13.5
- vs. Ole Miss +9
- @ Tennessee +5.5
- @ Georgia Tech +25
- vs. Alabama +3 (SEC Championship)
How will the absence of tight end Brock Bowers affect the Georgia offense? That answer should come this weekend against a Florida defense that struggles against pass explosives.
The Bulldogs do not have as easy of a path as other contenders, with Missouri and Ole Miss playing above preseason expectations. Tennessee also showed plenty of fight in the first half against Alabama but ultimately got blanked in the second half.
A potential SEC Championship game with Alabama lowers this sweep percentage, but if there's a team that can afford a loss, it might be Georgia.
Michigan Wolverines
Remaining Sweep: 81%
Projections:
- vs. Purdue +28
- @ Penn State +3.5
- @ Maryland +14.5
- vs. Ohio State +5.5
- vs. Wisconsin +17.5 (Big Ten Championship)
The Wolverines have yet to face stiff competition with a strength of schedule rank at 110th. That will change with Penn State and Ohio State scheduled to end the season.
While those point spreads are lower than a touchdown, a potential conference championship game against Wisconsin is a benefit for those eyeing Michigan or Ohio State to make the playoff.
Considering there are other teams with a higher sweep percentage at better national title odds numbers, Michigan is a pass in the futures market.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Remaining Sweep: 83%
Projections:
- @ Wisconsin +13
- @ Rutgers +20
- vs. Michigan State +25
- vs. Minnesota +24
- @ Michigan -5.5
- vs. Wisconsin +12.5 (Big Ten Championship)
The Buckeyes have a better chance to win the remainder of their games than the Wolverines. The schedule goes back to Cupcake City with a three more three-possession spreads in conference play.
The easy piece of an Ohio State future is the hedge strategy, as the Michigan game is the only real hurdle in the schedule.
Although this is the second-highest chance of a sweep from Week 9 to the playoff, there are better investments on the board.
Florida State Seminoles
Remaining Sweep: 89.5%
Projections:
- @ Wake Forest +16.5
- @ Pitt +18
- vs. Miami +11
- vs. North Alabama +53
- @ Florida +8
- vs. North Carolina +7 (ACC Championship)
How can anyone pass up a ticket on the Seminoles with this projected schedule? Including a potential ACC Championship game with North Carolina, no single team on the Seminoles' schedule is projected within a touchdown.
Hitting the road against Pitt and Florida could be troublesome, but Florida State is a shoo-in to make the playoff even with a single loss and an ACC crown.
Taking the Seminoles at +700 or better is the smarter investment compared to an ACC ticket at -240.
Washington Huskies
Remaining Sweep: 74%
Projections:
- @ Stanford +26
- @ USC +3
- vs. Utah +7
- @ Oregon State +2.5
- vs. Washington State +13
- vs. Oregon PK (Pac-12 Championship)
The Huskies struggled against single-win Arizona State over the weekend — an unfathomable outcome considering the 27-point spread.
The road does not get any easier for Washington with three conference road games. The Huskies cannot afford a loss with the history of cannibalization in the Pac-12 Conference.
A strong strength of schedule, strength of record and overall resume are needed when the committee debates one-loss teams. With a low 74% sweep percentage and a tough trip to Corvallis on the schedule, Washington is a pass in the futures market.
Oklahoma Sooners
Remaining Sweep: 78%
Projections:
- @ Kansas +9
- @ Oklahoma State +12
- vs. West Virginia +19.5
- @ BYU +12
- vs. TCU +13.5
- vs. Texas -1 (Big 12 Championship)
The Sooners survived the Red River hangover spot, stopping UCF on a two-point conversion to potentially send the Week 8 game to overtime.
Now, Oklahoma is a marked team, as the remaining Big 12 opponents wave goodbye to the soon-to-be SEC Sooners.
Three road games and a toss-up against Texas in a potential championship game lower the sweep percentage, but with an undefeated record, the Sooners can still make the playoff with a regular-season loss.
Texas Longhorns
Remaining Sweep: 76%
Projections:
- vs. BYU +18
- vs. Kansas State +7
- @ TCU +9.5
- @ Iowa State +10.5
- vs. Texas Tech +13.5
- vs. Oklahoma +1 (Big 12 Championship)
Quarterback Quinn Ewers was diagnosed with an AC joint sprain, an injury that has a minimum three-week recovery. Maalik Murphy is set to transform the Longhorns' attack with more RPO while hosting BYU this weekend.
A rejuvenated Kansas State team looms on the schedule, along with road travel to a Big 12 contending Iowa State team.
The path to remain a playoff contender is filled with landmines for Texas as it looks to a new quarterback to finish the season.
Oregon Ducks
Remaining Sweep: 75%
Projections:
- @ Utah +3
- vs. Cal +20.5
- vs. USC +9.5
- @ Arizona State +22.5
- vs. Oregon State +9
- vs. Washington PK (Pac-12 Championship)
The Ducks are steaming in the Week 9 market, as an opener of -3 at Utah has moved up to -6.5 as of writing. If Oregon can escape Rice-Eccles with a victory, the schedule opens up for a walk to the Pac-12 Championship game.
A date with Oregon State and USC is less intimidating in the friendly confines of Autzen Stadium.
The fast track of Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas would serve as a backdrop for a rematch with Washington, where head coach Dan Lanning is ready to go for fourth down at any cost.
The number is far too high for the remaining strength of schedule, making an Oregon 30-1 a futures ticket worth grabbing now.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Remaining Sweep: 73%
Projections:
- vs. LSU +7
- @ Kentucky +9.5
- vs. Chattanooga +40.5
- @ Auburn +11
- vs. Georgia -3 (SEC Championship)
The Crimson Tide flexed in the second half against Tennessee, as quarterback Jalen Milroe completed more downfield explosives passes than Joe Milton.
The Crimson Tide have had plenty of games in which big efficiency swings come quarter to quarter. If Alabama can piece together a few successful quarters against LSU and Auburn, the Tide will be in Atlanta facing Georgia for a chance to go to the playoff.
Alabama must sweep the remaining schedule to secure a spot in the playoff — one of the most unlikely sweeps of all the teams mentioned here.
Alabama can be an entertaining wager at 20-1 or better, but the current market is too short on a team that must win out.
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