Sun Belt Championship Odds

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs Troy Trojans

Saturday, Dec. 3

3:30 p.m. ET

ESPN

Coastal Carolina Odds
Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
+6.5 -104	48.5 -115o / -105u	+215

Troy Odds
Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
-6.5 -118	48.5 -115o / -105u	-265

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Troy Trojans pursue their first Sun Belt Championship in the last five years when they match up against the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers this afternoon.

Since that championship run, the program has put together three five-win seasons in a row. That is, until Jon Sumrall took over this season and revitalized the program.

The Trojans lost their first two games of the season against FBS competition in Ole Miss and Appalachian State. But since then, the group has ripped off nine victories in a row.

It will match up against Coastal Carolina, which is on the hunt for its second conference title. The first came during the 2020 COVID-19 season, which saw the championship game get canceled.

The Chanticleers clinched their Sun Belt East Title two weeks ago. However, they may be without offensive captain and star quarterback Grayson McCall, whose status is unclear after he suffered a foot injury on Nov. 3.

His injury has made this Sun Belt Championship spread balloon up from its opening number, but has it gone too high?

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

The Chanticleers have become the powerhouse of the Sun Belt Conference over the last three seasons. The program has gone 31-5 in that span — the best record of any program in the conference.

All of that success has come behind the arm of McCall. McCall has completed 69% of his passes this season while averaging just shy of 10 yards per pass attempt. The redshirt junior has also tossed 21 touchdowns compared to just one interception.

The only problem is head coach Jamey Chadwell stated it's more likely than not that McCall will be out for this matchup.

His absence would force the Chanticleers to turn to Jarrett Guest, who has started the last two games. In that span, he’s completed just 44% of his passes while throwing one touchdown to four interceptions.

That downgrade will put more pressure on both the run game and the defense, but those areas haven’t particularly been the Chants' strong suits. Though the group runs the ball on 59% of its plays, it averages 4.4 yards per play.

Defensively, Coastal is allowing 29 points and 6.0 yards per play, which ranks 108th nationally. It's been better against the run, allowing 4.2 yards per rush (68th) against the 8.5 yards per pass (123rd).

Troy Trojans

Troy has carried its nine-game win streak all the way to the Sun Belt Championship. Unlike Coastal, the defense has carried the team to this point.

The Trojans are allowing just 17 points per game and 4.4 yards per play this season, both ranking among the top seven nationally. No opponent has scored 20 or more points against this defense since Western Kentucky on Oct. 1.

Troy has been just as good in defending the ground game as it has against aerial attacks. Opponents are averaging 3.4 yards per carry (18th) and 5.9 yards per pass attempt (7th).

The offense has largely been riding the coattails of the defense, averaging 24 points and just north of 350 points per game.

Quarterback Gunnar Watson is completing 61% of his passes while averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt. However, he’s tossed 10 interceptions to go along with 10 touchdown passes.

The offense runs the ball on 53% of its plays this season but is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. If Coastal can limit the explosive throws, this Trojans offense has the potential to stall.

Coastal Carolina vs Troy Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Coastal Carolina and Troy match up statistically:

Coastal Carolina Offense vs Troy Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	78	69
Line Yards	87	66
Pass Success	11	28
Pass Blocking**	104	33
Havoc	87	65
Finishing Drives	86	9
** Pass Blocking (Off) vs Pass Rush (Def)

Troy Offense vs Coastal Carolina Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	87	77
Line Yards	36	25
Pass Success	62	118
Pass Blocking**	74	13
Havoc	74	21
Finishing Drives	98	85
** Pass Blocking (Off) vs Pass Rush (Def)

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	103	92
PFF Coverage	118	7
SP+ Special Teams	123	15
Seconds per Play	29.2 (116)	28.2 (101)
Rush Rate	60.1% (21)	53.8% (69)

Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Coastal Carolina vs Troy Picks, Predictions

Troy has been one of the most popular picks in recent weeks given its nine-game win streak. During that span, the Trojans have covered the spread in nine of their 11 matchups against FBS opponents.

But they’ve beaten only three FBS teams by double-digits this season.

The Trojans were favored by 15 points against Louisiana-Monroe and 13.5 over Arkansas State. Those two programs rank 114th and 120th, respectively, according to Collin Wilson’s Betting Power Ratings.

If McCall doesn’t go it would surely be a massive downgrade at the quarterback position. But the Chanticleers have enough class and help from the supporting cast to keep this game close.

Troy’s offense is averaging only 24 points per game and has been prone to stalling this season. Coastal can slow down the aerial attack as it keeps this game within reach.

Pick: Coastal Carolina +8.5 ⋅ Play to 7.5

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